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Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 110-105
26-31 24-28 23-20 37-26
Position#10
Record27-22
FormLWLWW
Points / game108.4
Allowed / game108.2
vs
Position#25
Record19-29
FormLWLWW
Points / game111.3
Allowed / game114.5
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Orlando Magic
10 Mar 2027
MIA v ORL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
MIA117
ORL121
28 Jan 2026
MIA124
ORL133
27 Jan 2025
MIA125
ORL119
23 Oct 2024
MIA97
ORL116
06 Feb 2024
MIA121
ORL95
12 Jan 2024
MIA99
ORL96
09 Apr 2023
MIA123
ORL110
27 Jan 2023
MIA110
ORL105
26 Dec 2021
MIA93
ORL83
25 Oct 2021
MIA107
ORL90
11 Mar 2021
MIA111
ORL103
04 Mar 2020
MIA116
ORL113
27 Jan 2020
MIA113
ORL92
26 Mar 2019
MIA99
ORL104
04 Dec 2018
MIA90
ORL105
05 Feb 2018
MIA109
ORL111
26 Dec 2017
MIA107
ORL89
13 Feb 2017
MIA107
ORL116
20 Dec 2016
MIA130
ORL136
10 Apr 2016
MIA118
ORL96
25 Mar 2016
MIA108
ORL97
13 Apr 2015
MIA100
ORL93
29 Dec 2014
MIA101
ORL102
01 Mar 2014
MIA112
ORL98
23 Nov 2013
MIA101
ORL99
17 Apr 2013
MIA105
ORL93
06 Mar 2013
MIA97
ORL96
18 Mar 2012
MIA91
ORL81
19 Feb 2012
MIA90
ORL78
18 Dec 2011
MIA118
ORL85
03 Mar 2011
MIA96
ORL99
29 Oct 2010
MIA96
ORL70
18 Mar 2010
MIA102
ORL108
17 Dec 2009
MIA104
ORL86
30 Mar 2009
MIA95
ORL101
24 Jan 2009
MIA103
ORL97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Orlando Magic winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
104-96
104
96
+8
92avg 100
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
101-102
101
102
-1
86avg 100
H08/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
112-111
112
111
+1
102avg 100
H11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
108-102
108
102
+6
104avg 100
H13/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
111-95
111
95
+16
105avg 100
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
113-121
113
121
-8
109avg 100
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
124-98
124
98
+26
124avg 100
A19/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
90-115
90
115
-25
82avg 100
A21/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
100-96
100
96
+4
89avg 100
H22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
98-95
98
95
+3
84avg 100
H25/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-23
21-23
27-27
26-23
30-31
34-35
18-13
19-23
31-26
32-30
26-32
23-23
14-23
31-22
33-28
30-29
28-20
25-25
24-26
34-24
26-38
24-32
30-21
33-30
36-23
34-28
28-25
26-22
19-31
32-29
16-32
23-23
23-32
18-15
28-25
31-24
32-30
18-28
25-24
23-13
209.2Avg total
106.1Scored
103.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (49)108.4108.2216.6+0.355%
Season at home (25)108.8107.4216.2+1.464%
Season away (24)108.0109.0217.0-0.946%
Last 10 (10)106.1103.1209.2+3.070%
Last 5 (5)105.0105.0210.0+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)114.5117.2231.8-2.850%
vs Similar ◀ (22)107.5105.0212.5+2.568%
vs Weaker (4)107.2110.0217.2-2.850%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
115-123
115
123
-8
106avg 101
H06/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
115-101
115
101
+14
108avg 101
A08/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
L
111-136
111
136
-25
100avg 101
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
W
109-106
109
106
+3
99avg 101
A11/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
108-112
108
112
-4
91avg 101
A14/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
116-119
116
119
-3
107avg 101
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
123-110
123
110
+13
125avg 101
H21/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
118-138
118
138
-20
108avg 101
A22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
113-98
113
98
+15
104avg 101
H24/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
126-120
126
120
+6
125avg 101
H26/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
23-43
35-27
37-31
28-29
34-30
30-23
23-19
31-41
21-31
32-35
27-29
33-20
17-30
32-23
27-33
27-36
29-25
27-27
25-24
25-31
29-38
34-25
28-25
23-30
33-30
32-31
35-19
26-37
31-33
34-30
27-38
30-23
25-31
33-25
25-19
46-29
27-39
29-23
24-29
231.7Avg total
115.4Scored
116.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (48)111.3114.5225.7-3.240%
Season at home (25)114.7115.0229.6-0.352%
Season away (23)107.6113.9221.5-6.326%
Last 10 (10)115.4116.3231.7-0.950%
Last 5 (5)119.2117.0236.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)108.8112.0220.8-3.242%
vs Similar ◀ (15)114.3117.5231.9-3.247%
vs Weaker (3)116.7114.7231.3+2.067%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -6.1-6.1Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +1.2+1.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -6.1-6.1Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +1.2+1.2
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H08/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H13/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
53-45
53
45
+8
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
50-70
50
70
-20
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
70-51
70
51
+19
A19/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
51-60
51
60
-9
A21/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H25/01
NBA
108.2Avg total
53.8Scored
54.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.155.1111.2+1.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.053.7108.7+1.357%-
Last 30 away (16)57.156.2113.3+0.844%-
Last 10 (10)53.854.4108.2-0.640%-
Last 5 (5)52.457.2109.6-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)56.562.0118.5-5.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)56.054.1110.1+1.959%-
vs Weaker (4)56.253.2109.5+3.050%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
43-65
43
65
-22
H06/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
62-59
62
59
+3
A08/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
L
52-72
52
72
-20
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A11/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
56-61
56
61
-5
A14/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
54-69
54
69
-15
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H21/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
57-70
57
70
-13
A22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
55-54
55
54
+1
H24/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H26/01
NBA
118.6Avg total
55.8Scored
62.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.759.5114.2-4.833%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.458.8114.1-3.444%-
Last 30 away (14)53.960.3114.2-6.421%-
Last 10 (10)55.862.8118.6-7.030%-
Last 5 (5)59.064.2123.2-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)52.258.6110.8-6.342%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)56.859.3116.1-2.533%-
vs Weaker (3)54.063.7117.7-9.70%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.228.5
52.6%
54.5%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.59.9
31.4%
35.8%29.7
🏀 Free throws22.919.4
84.7%
78.1%19.4
They take 85.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 115.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.029.4
55.5%
54.5%58.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.012.3
38.4%
35.8%36.9
🏀 Free throws25.619.7
77.0%
78.1%19.7
They take 85.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Jan 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWWLW
Orlando Magic
WWLWLLWLWL
#10
League position
#25
+3.1
Net rating
-0.9
109.1
Offensive rating
113.7
106.1
Defensive rating
114.5
50.6%
Effective FG%
56.3%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
13.6%
Turnover %
12.7%
27.6%
Off. rebound %
19.6%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.4%
3-point %
38.4%
56.8%
Assist %
59.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.1 · 113.7Defence106.1 · 114.5Shooting50.6% · 56.3%3-point %31.4% · 38.4%Ball care13.6% · 12.7%Off. rebounds27.6% · 19.6%Free throws0.27 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Orlando Magic
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Miami Heat wins
2
Orlando Magic wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/23HBoston Celtics98-95
22/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans100-96
21/01/23ADallas Mavericks90-115
19/01/23ANew Orleans Pelicans124-98
16/01/23AAtlanta Hawks113-121
14/01/23HMilwaukee Bucks111-95
13/01/23HMilwaukee Bucks108-102
11/01/23HOklahoma City Thunder112-111
08/01/23HBrooklyn Nets101-102
07/01/23APhoenix Suns104-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/23HIndiana Pacers126-120
24/01/23HBoston Celtics113-98
22/01/23AWashington Wizards118-138
21/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans123-110
16/01/23ADenver Nuggets116-119
14/01/23AUtah Jazz108-112
11/01/23APortland Trail Blazers109-106
10/01/23ASacramento Kings111-136
08/01/23AGolden State Warriors115-101
06/01/23HMemphis Grizzlies115-123

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW55%
HomeWWWWW64%
AwayLWLWL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games492524
Win %55%64%46%
Points / game108.4108.8108.0
Allowed / game108.2107.4109.0
Point differential+0.3+1.4-0.9
Avg total216.6216.2217.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%12%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (24)71% (14)50% (10)
Overtime %6%4%8%
Orlando Magic
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW40%
HomeWLWWW52%
AwayLWLLL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games482523
Win %40%52%26%
Points / game111.3114.7107.6
Allowed / game114.5115.0113.9
Point differential-3.2-0.3-6.3
Avg total225.7229.6221.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%32%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)75% (4)38% (8)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics50351570%117.6112.1+5.5
2 Denver Nuggets49341569%116.5112.4+4.0
3 Philadelphia 76ers47311666%114.6110.7+3.9
4 Milwaukee Bucks49321765%113.6111.9+1.7
5 Memphis Grizzlies49311863%116.8112.5+4.2
6 Brooklyn Nets48291960%114.3111.6+2.7
7 Cleveland Cavaliers50302060%111.5107.0+4.6
8 Sacramento Kings47272057%119.7116.6+3.1
9 Miami Heat49272255%108.4108.2+0.3
10 New York Knicks50272354%114.2112.2+2.0
11 New Orleans Pelicans49262353%115.3113.1+2.3
12 Los Angeles Clippers51272453%110.7110.4+0.3
13 Dallas Mavericks50262452%112.6112.2+0.4
14 Atlanta Hawks49252451%116.1116.5-0.4
15 Minnesota Timberwolves51262551%115.1115.1+0.1
16 Phoenix Suns50252550%112.6111.4+1.2
17 Golden State Warriors48242450%117.7118.0-0.3
18 Utah Jazz51252649%117.7116.6+1.1
19 Oklahoma City Thunder48232548%116.9116.0+0.9
20 Portland Trail Blazers48232548%114.0113.3+0.7
21 Indiana Pacers51242747%115.4117.3-1.9
22 Los Angeles Lakers49232647%117.0118.0-1.0
23 Chicago Bulls48222646%114.2114.6-0.4
24 Washington Wizards48222646%112.7113.4-0.7
25 Toronto Raptors49222745%112.6112.1+0.6
26 Orlando Magic48192940%111.3114.5-3.2
27 San Antonio Spurs49143529%112.6122.1-9.5
28 Charlotte Hornets50143628%112.0118.6-6.6
29 Detroit Pistons50133726%112.8120.3-7.5
30 Houston Rockets49113822%109.4117.1-7.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat26242337110
Orlando Magic31282026105
← all games of the day
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