PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 25 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 128-99
42-32 31-24 22-18 33-25
Position#1
Record41-17
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.8
Allowed / game111.6
vs
Position#10
Record32-27
FormWWWLL
Points / game108.3
Allowed / game108.3
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
141-131
141
131
+10
136avg 107
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
135-110
135
110
+25
133avg 107
H30/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
124-115
124
115
+9
112avg 107
H01/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
106-105
106
105
+1
93avg 107
H03/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
123-115
123
115
+8
117avg 107
H05/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
W
127-108
127
108
+19
130avg 107
A07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
115-106
115
106
+9
104avg 107
A10/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
119-106
119
106
+13
116avg 107
A11/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
131-125 OT
131
125
+6
128avg 107
H15/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
112-100
112
100
+12
108avg 107
A17/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
45-30
40-26
29-43
27-32
37-19
25-25
44-44
29-22
34-27
30-37
33-26
27-25
15-24
34-32
29-31
28-18
34-26
28-36
32-30
29-23
30-22
28-26
37-23
32-37
26-31
24-27
38-23
27-25
22-27
32-24
27-25
38-30
27-35
37-28
26-32
26-21
34-24
27-25
24-24
27-27
235.4Avg total
123.3Scored
112.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (58)114.8111.6226.4+3.271%
Season at home (29)118.9111.4230.3+7.483%
Season away (29)110.8111.8222.6-1.059%
Last 10 (10)123.3112.1235.4+11.2100%
Last 5 (5)120.8109.0229.8+11.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)114.0112.2226.2+1.867%
vs Weaker (9)124.9118.8243.7+6.178%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#25
W
110-105
110
105
+5
103avg 100
H28/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
117-122
117
122
-5
104avg 100
A29/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
100-97
100
97
+3
93avg 100
A01/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
104-106
104
106
-2
91avg 100
A03/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
115-123
115
123
-8
99avg 100
A05/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
116-111
116
111
+5
113avg 100
H09/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
97-95
97
95
+2
90avg 100
H11/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
107-103 OT
107
103
+4
101avg 100
A12/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
108-112
108
112
-4
95avg 100
H14/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
105-116
105
116
-11
93avg 100
A16/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-31
24-28
23-20
37-26
28-26
34-32
24-33
31-31
24-26
31-26
24-27
21-18
22-28
26-23
24-26
32-29
26-34
36-28
30-32
23-29
39-30
21-33
29-20
27-28
28-29
30-27
17-17
22-22
19-29
27-25
26-25
25-18
36-27
26-38
21-24
25-23
25-26
31-26
24-31
25-33
216.9Avg total
107.9Scored
109.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)108.3108.3216.6+0.054%
Season at home (29)108.7107.2215.8+1.566%
Season away (30)108.0109.4217.4-1.443%
Last 10 (10)107.9109.0216.9-1.150%
Last 5 (5)106.6107.4214.0-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)106.2107.0213.2-0.850%
vs Similar ◀ (22)109.1107.6216.7+1.559%
vs Weaker (4)109.0106.5215.5+2.575%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +1.1+1.1
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +1.1+1.1
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
85-56
85
56
+29
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
62-44
62
44
+18
H30/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
D
64-64
64
64
+0
H01/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H03/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
D
62-62
62
62
+0
H05/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
W
58-48
58
48
+10
A07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
50-58
50
58
-8
A10/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A11/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
64-63
64
63
+1
H15/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
61-49
61
49
+12
A17/02
NBA
116.0Avg total
60.9Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.356.7114.0+0.643%-
Last 30 at home (13)59.161.6120.7-2.538%-
Last 30 away (17)55.952.9108.9+3.047%-
Last 10 (10)60.955.1116.0+5.860%-
Last 5 (5)57.453.8111.2+3.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)54.155.0109.1-0.838%-
vs Weaker (9)64.760.8125.4+3.956%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#25
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H28/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
62-58
62
58
+4
A29/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
55-52
55
52
+3
A01/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A03/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
D
62-62
62
62
+0
A05/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H09/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H11/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A12/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
62-65
62
65
-3
H14/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
W
56-52
56
52
+4
A16/02
NBA
113.1Avg total
55.9Scored
57.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.455.4111.8+0.950%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.855.4111.2+0.450%-
Last 30 away (16)56.955.4112.3+1.450%-
Last 10 (10)55.957.2113.1-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)56.458.0114.4-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)56.058.8114.8-2.825%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)55.954.9110.7+1.050%-
vs Weaker (4)59.555.2114.8+4.275%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 123.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.2 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.729.9
59.0%
54.5%59.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.415.4
36.3%
35.8%46.2
🏀 Free throws24.117.3
71.8%
78.1%17.3
They take 93.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.628.0
52.2%
54.5%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.110.5
32.7%
35.8%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.420.4
83.6%
78.1%20.4
They take 85.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Feb 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWWWWWWWW
Miami Heat
LLWWWLLWLW
#1
League position
#10
+10.7
Net rating
-1.1
117.4
Offensive rating
110.3
106.7
Defensive rating
111.4
56.9%
Effective FG%
51.1%
50.1%
Opp. effective FG%
57.1%
11.6%
Turnover %
11.5%
24.6%
Off. rebound %
22.5%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.28
36.3%
3-point %
32.7%
54.7%
Assist %
60.3%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence117.4 · 110.3Defence106.7 · 111.4Shooting56.9% · 51.1%3-point %36.3% · 32.7%Ball care11.6% · 11.5%Off. rebounds24.6% · 22.5%Free throws0.26 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)100% · 50%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/23AChicago Bulls112-100
15/02/23HBoston Celtics131-125 OT
11/02/23ALos Angeles Clippers119-106
10/02/23ALos Angeles Lakers115-106
07/02/23APortland Trail Blazers127-108
05/02/23HMiami Heat123-115
03/02/23HLos Angeles Clippers106-105
01/02/23HCharlotte Hornets124-115
30/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans135-110
28/01/23AIndiana Pacers141-131
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/02/23ABrooklyn Nets105-116
14/02/23HDenver Nuggets108-112
12/02/23AOrlando Magic107-103 OT
11/02/23HHouston Rockets97-95
09/02/23HIndiana Pacers116-111
05/02/23AMilwaukee Bucks115-123
03/02/23ANew York Knicks104-106
01/02/23ACleveland Cavaliers100-97
29/01/23ACharlotte Hornets117-122
28/01/23HOrlando Magic110-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW71%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWWWW59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games582929
Win %71%83%59%
Points / game114.8118.9110.8
Allowed / game111.6111.4111.8
Point differential+3.2+7.4-1.0
Avg total226.4230.3222.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%45%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won70% (10)50% (4)83% (6)
Overtime %7%3%10%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL54%
HomeWWWWL66%
AwayWLLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592930
Win %54%66%43%
Points / game108.3108.7108.0
Allowed / game108.3107.2109.4
Point differential+0.0+1.5-1.4
Avg total216.6215.8217.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%10%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (32)72% (18)50% (14)
Overtime %7%3%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics60431772%118.3112.2+6.1
2 Milwaukee Bucks58411771%114.8111.6+3.2
3 Denver Nuggets60421870%117.0112.7+4.4
4 Philadelphia 76ers58391967%114.3110.4+3.9
5 Cleveland Cavaliers62382461%111.7106.3+5.4
6 Memphis Grizzlies58352360%115.9112.2+3.8
7 Brooklyn Nets58342459%114.0112.3+1.7
8 Sacramento Kings58332557%119.7117.2+2.5
9 New York Knicks61342756%114.6112.3+2.3
10 Miami Heat59322754%108.3108.3+0.0
11 Los Angeles Clippers61332854%111.4111.1+0.3
12 Phoenix Suns60322853%112.7111.3+1.4
13 Dallas Mavericks61322952%113.5112.6+0.9
14 Minnesota Timberwolves61313051%115.7115.8-0.1
15 New Orleans Pelicans60303050%114.8113.5+1.3
16 Utah Jazz61303149%117.6117.3+0.3
17 Golden State Warriors59293049%118.5118.6-0.1
18 Atlanta Hawks59293049%116.4116.7-0.4
19 Toronto Raptors60293148%113.3112.4+0.9
20 Oklahoma City Thunder58283048%117.9116.3+1.6
21 Washington Wizards59283147%113.6113.4+0.2
22 Portland Trail Blazers59283147%114.9115.3-0.4
23 Los Angeles Lakers60283247%117.1118.0-0.9
24 Chicago Bulls59263344%113.1113.4-0.3
25 Indiana Pacers61263543%114.9117.5-2.7
26 Orlando Magic60253542%110.8113.5-2.7
27 Charlotte Hornets60174328%112.5118.9-6.4
28 Detroit Pistons60154525%112.2119.7-7.5
29 San Antonio Spurs60144623%112.5122.9-10.4
30 Houston Rockets58134522%109.8118.2-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks42312233128
Miami Heat3224182599
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.