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San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 28 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#3
Record10-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game119.2
Allowed / game108.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Position#13
Record6-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game113.3
USANBA· Frost Bank Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · San Antonio Spurs v Denver Nuggets
28 Feb 2027
SAS v DEN
upcoming
12 Apr 2026
SAS118
DEN128
12 Mar 2026
SAS131
DEN136
04 Jan 2025
SAS111
DEN122
12 Apr 2024
SAS121
DEN120
15 Mar 2024
SAS106
DEN117
10 Mar 2023
SAS128
DEN120
07 Nov 2022
SAS109
DEN115
11 Dec 2021
SAS112
DEN127
09 Dec 2021
SAS123
DEN111
29 Jan 2021
SAS119
DEN109
05 Aug 2020
SAS126
DEN132
25 Apr 2019
SAS120
DEN103
20 Apr 2019
SAS103
DEN117
18 Apr 2019
SAS118
DEN108
04 Mar 2019
SAS104
DEN103
26 Dec 2018
SAS111
DEN103
30 Jan 2018
SAS106
DEN104
13 Jan 2018
SAS112
DEN80
04 Feb 2017
SAS121
DEN97
19 Jan 2017
SAS118
DEN104
26 Dec 2015
SAS101
DEN86
18 Nov 2015
SAS109
DEN98
03 Apr 2015
SAS123
DEN93
06 Mar 2015
SAS120
DEN111
26 Mar 2014
SAS108
DEN103
27 Mar 2013
SAS100
DEN99
17 Nov 2012
SAS126
DEN100
04 Mar 2012
SAS94
DEN99
07 Jan 2012
SAS121
DEN117
16 Jan 2011
SAS110
DEN97
22 Dec 2010
SAS109
DEN103
31 Jan 2010
SAS89
DEN103
05 Dec 2009
SAS99
DEN106
19 Nov 2008
SAS81
DEN91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

San Antonio Spurs win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpurs
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
122-106
122
106
+16
109avg 111
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
130-103
130
103
+27
127avg 111
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
117-111 OT
117
111
+6
109avg 111
A29/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
W
121-111
121
111
+10
116avg 111
H01/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
119-97
119
97
+22
108avg 111
H03/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
112-111
112
111
+1
102avg 111
H05/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
124-109
124
109
+15
123avg 111
A07/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
125-103
125
103
+22
122avg 111
A08/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
122-96
122
96
+26
124avg 111
A10/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
124-119
124
119
+5
112avg 111
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-31
36-29
24-29
30-17
39-29
41-25
27-26
23-23
22-32
29-23
34-30
20-20
34-28
26-33
33-27
28-23
27-16
32-33
35-20
25-28
32-26
36-25
22-29
22-31
38-29
37-27
24-24
25-29
22-20
42-29
45-27
16-27
31-25
30-21
32-22
29-28
29-41
27-29
34-19
34-30
228.2Avg total
121.6Scored
106.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)119.2108.0227.2+11.283%
Season at home (6)116.0108.7224.7+7.367%
Season away (6)122.3107.3229.7+15.0100%
Last 10 (10)121.6106.6228.2+15.0100%
Last 5 (5)121.4107.6229.0+13.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (15)110.3107.5217.9+2.847%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)119.9106.3226.2+13.580%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 112
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 112
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 112
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 112
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 112
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 112
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 112
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 112
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 112
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 112
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
227.8Avg total
114.5Scored
113.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (6)108.7106.2214.8+2.567%
Last 10 (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Last 5 (5)115.0111.4226.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)114.8117.4232.2-2.640%
vs Similar (13)113.9113.0226.9+0.962%
vs Weaker (12)128.2117.0245.2+11.292%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +6.2+6.2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +5.7+5.7Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +6.2+6.2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +5.7+5.7Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
San Antonio SpursDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
68-60
68
60
+8
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
80-54
80
54
+26
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A29/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H01/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H03/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
68-51
68
51
+17
H05/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
75-56
75
56
+19
A07/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
64-49
64
49
+15
A08/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
61-46
61
46
+15
A10/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
L
56-70
56
70
-14
A12/11
NBA
119.3Avg total
64.2Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.353.6111.8+4.757%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.250.5106.7+5.760%-
Last 30 away (15)60.356.6116.9+3.753%-
Last 10 (10)64.255.1119.3+9.170%-
Last 5 (5)64.854.4119.2+10.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (15)56.153.5109.6+2.753%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)60.453.7114.1+6.760%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
114.9Avg total
58.8Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.457.9118.3+2.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)57.953.7111.6+4.269%-
Last 10 (10)58.856.1114.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)59.854.4114.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)57.255.0112.2+2.260%-
vs Similar (13)58.856.5115.3+2.254%-
vs Weaker (12)63.560.5124.0+3.050%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 113.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.928.3
51.5%
54.0%56.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.512.3
32.8%
35.0%36.9
🏀 Free throws24.319.6
80.7%
76.8%19.6
They take 92.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.0%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
76.8%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
San Antonio Spurs
WWWWWWWWWW
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWWLWL
#3
League position
#13
+3.8
Net rating
-1.6
109.7
Offensive rating
110.1
105.9
Defensive rating
111.6
50.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
11.7%
Turnover %
11.1%
27.4%
Off. rebound %
16.8%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.8%
3-point %
32.2%
62.1%
Assist %
65.9%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence109.7 · 110.1Defence105.9 · 111.6Shooting50.6% · 53.6%3-point %32.8% · 32.2%Ball care11.7% · 11.1%Off. rebounds27.4% · 16.8%Free throws0.26 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)100% · 60%
■ San Antonio Spurs   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
San Antonio Spurs wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AChicago Bulls124-119
10/11/26APhoenix Suns122-96
08/11/26APortland Trail Blazers125-103
07/11/26ASacramento Kings124-109
05/11/26HDallas Mavericks112-111
03/11/26HUtah Jazz119-97
01/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves121-111
29/10/26AUtah Jazz117-111 OT
28/10/26HSacramento Kings130-103
25/10/26ADallas Mavericks122-106
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeLWWWW67%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %83%67%100%
Points / game119.2116.0122.3
Allowed / game108.0108.7107.3
Point differential+11.2+7.3+15.0
Avg total227.2224.7229.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+58%50%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%0%17%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.5123.2108.7
Allowed / game113.3124.0106.2
Point differential+1.2-0.8+2.5
Avg total227.8247.2214.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %10%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
8 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Toronto Raptors115645%114.5111.9+2.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
22 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
23 Washington Wizards124833%107.5113.4-5.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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