PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 13 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 118-128
34-37 22-33 35-31 27-27
Position#2
Record64-19
FormWLWWW
Points / game120.1
Allowed / game111.3
vs
Position#6
Record56-30
FormWWWWW
Points / game121.2
Allowed / game116.4
USANBA· Frost Bank Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · San Antonio Spurs v Denver Nuggets
28 Feb 2027
SAS v DEN
upcoming
12 Apr 2026
SAS118
DEN128
12 Mar 2026
SAS131
DEN136
04 Jan 2025
SAS111
DEN122
12 Apr 2024
SAS121
DEN120
15 Mar 2024
SAS106
DEN117
10 Mar 2023
SAS128
DEN120
07 Nov 2022
SAS109
DEN115
11 Dec 2021
SAS112
DEN127
09 Dec 2021
SAS123
DEN111
29 Jan 2021
SAS119
DEN109
05 Aug 2020
SAS126
DEN132
25 Apr 2019
SAS120
DEN103
20 Apr 2019
SAS103
DEN117
18 Apr 2019
SAS118
DEN108
04 Mar 2019
SAS104
DEN103
26 Dec 2018
SAS111
DEN103
30 Jan 2018
SAS106
DEN104
13 Jan 2018
SAS112
DEN80
08 Oct 2017
SAS122
DEN100
04 Feb 2017
SAS121
DEN97
19 Jan 2017
SAS118
DEN104
26 Dec 2015
SAS101
DEN86
18 Nov 2015
SAS109
DEN98
03 Apr 2015
SAS123
DEN93
06 Mar 2015
SAS120
DEN111
26 Mar 2014
SAS108
DEN103
27 Mar 2013
SAS100
DEN99
17 Nov 2012
SAS126
DEN100
12 Oct 2012
SAS91
DEN97
04 Mar 2012
SAS94
DEN99
07 Jan 2012
SAS121
DEN117
16 Jan 2011
SAS110
DEN97
22 Dec 2010
SAS109
DEN103
31 Jan 2010
SAS89
DEN103
05 Dec 2009
SAS99
DEN106
19 Nov 2008
SAS81
DEN91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

San Antonio Spurs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · San Antonio Spurs
3.5out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 117.4
123.6▲ 6.2
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 109.1
111.6▲ 2.5
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 59%
61%▲ 2%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 27.2
29.6▲ 2.4
🔥 Form · Denver Nuggets
4.4out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 118.0
133.2▲ 15.2
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 114.4
121.8▲ 7.4
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 60%
63%▲ 3%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 27.4
32.0▲ 4.6
San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#19
W
136-111
136
111
+25
A23/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
123-98
123
98
+25
A26/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
127-95
127
95
+32
A28/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
129-114
129
114
+15
H31/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
127-113
127
113
+14
A02/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
W
118-99
118
99
+19
A03/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
134-136 OT
134
136
-2
A04/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
W
115-102
115
102
+13
H07/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
112-101
112
101
+11
H09/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
139-120
139
120
+19
H11/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-31
38-27
32-23
28-30
38-19
19-25
41-20
25-34
37-24
30-21
35-34
25-16
29-28
35-19
38-35
27-32
35-26
35-23
26-34
31-30
33-25
35-19
19-34
31-21
43-36
29-29
24-27
28-32
29-28
33-27
30-30
23-17
32-23
29-28
27-22
24-28
37-26
31-39
40-28
31-27
234.9Avg total
126.0Scored
108.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (83)120.1111.3231.4+8.877%
Season at home (41)121.2111.8233.0+9.583%
Season away (42)119.0110.9229.9+8.171%
Last 10 (10)126.0108.9234.9+17.190%
Last 5 (5)123.6111.6235.2+12.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)118.8111.8230.6+7.080%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)125.4109.9235.3+15.592%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
128-112
128
112
+16
H22/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#14
W
125-123
125
123
+2
A25/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
142-135
142
135
+7
H26/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
135-129
135
129
+6
H28/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
116-93
116
93
+23
H30/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
130-117
130
117
+13
A02/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
136-134 OT
136
134
+2
H04/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
137-132 OT
137
132
+5
H07/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-119
136
119
+17
H09/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
127-107
127
107
+20
H11/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
42-40
33-29
32-24
21-19
28-35
39-22
30-38
28-28
34-33
34-26
43-41
31-35
37-26
25-36
36-43
37-24
23-28
23-25
40-21
30-19
39-28
29-26
29-36
33-27
36-43
29-29
27-24
32-28
31-35
27-37
29-29
38-24
37-33
31-39
39-22
29-25
34-27
25-24
31-34
37-22
251.3Avg total
131.2Scored
120.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (86)121.2116.4237.6+4.965%
Season at home (43)120.8115.5236.3+5.367%
Season away (43)121.7117.3239.0+4.563%
Last 10 (10)131.2120.1251.3+11.1100%
Last 5 (5)133.2121.8255.0+11.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)129.2125.6254.8+3.660%
vs Similar (11)117.5116.5234.0+0.945%
vs Weaker (14)130.4117.9248.3+12.686%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: +8.5+8.5Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +5.7+5.7Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +6.5+6.5
San Antonio SpursDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#19
W
76-58
76
58
+18
A23/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
57-44
57
44
+13
A26/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
67-45
67
45
+22
A28/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
64-47
64
47
+17
H31/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
70-49
70
49
+21
A02/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
W
68-44
68
44
+24
A03/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
72-65
72
65
+7
A04/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
W
62-55
62
55
+7
H07/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H09/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
68-65
68
65
+3
H11/04
NBA
118.8Avg total
66.5Scored
52.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)65.554.9120.4+10.680%-
Last 30 at home (15)64.056.4120.4+7.680%-
Last 30 away (15)67.053.3120.3+13.780%-
Last 10 (10)66.552.3118.8+14.2100%-
Last 5 (5)66.256.0122.2+10.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)59.255.2114.4+4.060%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)66.854.8121.6+12.084%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
75-69
75
69
+6
H22/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#14
W
67-57
67
57
+10
A25/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H26/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
D
62-62
62
62
+0
H28/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H30/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
68-54
68
54
+14
A02/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
65-72
65
72
-7
H04/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
58-72
58
72
-14
H07/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H09/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-51
59
51
+8
H11/04
NBA
125.7Avg total
63.6Scored
62.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.458.7119.1+1.747%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.757.8117.5+1.953%-
Last 30 away (13)61.259.8121.1+1.438%-
Last 10 (10)63.662.1125.7+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)63.664.2127.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)59.261.6120.8-2.440%-
vs Similar (11)54.954.3109.2+0.655%-
vs Weaker (14)65.161.1126.2+3.943%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 126.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.233.1
60.0%
54.8%66.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.413.6
36.4%
35.8%40.8
🏀 Free throws23.319.0
81.5%
78.1%19.0
They take 92.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 131.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers51.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.830.7
59.3%
54.8%61.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.617.0
41.9%
35.8%51.0
🏀 Free throws22.718.8
82.8%
78.1%18.8
They take 92.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
San Antonio Spurs
WWWLWWWWWW
Denver Nuggets
WWWWWWWWWW
#2
League position
#6
+16.6
Net rating
+10.5
122.0
Offensive rating
123.8
105.4
Defensive rating
113.3
57.8%
Effective FG%
60.8%
51.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
12.0%
Turnover %
10.9%
30.8%
Off. rebound %
38.4%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.25
36.4%
3-point %
41.9%
67.9%
Assist %
69.8%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
100%

Profile

Offence122.0 · 123.8Defence105.4 · 113.3Shooting57.8% · 60.8%3-point %36.4% · 41.9%Ball care12.0% · 10.9%Off. rebounds30.8% · 38.4%Free throws0.25 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)90% · 100%
■ San Antonio Spurs   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
San Antonio Spurs wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/04/26HDallas Mavericks139-120
09/04/26HPortland Trail Blazers112-101
07/04/26HPhiladelphia 76ers115-102
04/04/26ADenver Nuggets134-136 OT
03/04/26ALos Angeles Clippers118-99
02/04/26AGolden State Warriors127-113
31/03/26HChicago Bulls129-114
28/03/26AMilwaukee Bucks127-95
26/03/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-98
23/03/26AMiami Heat136-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/04/26HOklahoma City Thunder127-107
09/04/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-119
07/04/26HPortland Trail Blazers137-132 OT
04/04/26HSan Antonio Spurs136-134 OT
02/04/26AUtah Jazz130-117
30/03/26HGolden State Warriors116-93
28/03/26HUtah Jazz135-129
26/03/26HDallas Mavericks142-135
25/03/26APhoenix Suns125-123
22/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers128-112

📊 11. Overall Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW77%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWWWL71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games834142
Win %77%83%71%
Points / game120.1121.2119.0
Allowed / game111.3111.8110.9
Point differential+8.8+9.5+8.1
Avg total231.4233.0229.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%56%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (24)56% (9)60% (15)
Overtime %4%2%5%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW65%
HomeWWWWW67%
AwayWLLWW63%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games864343
Win %65%67%63%
Points / game121.2120.8121.7
Allowed / game116.4115.5117.3
Point differential+4.9+5.3+4.5
Avg total237.6236.3239.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%35%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (30)55% (11)53% (19)
Overtime %10%9%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder85671879%118.4107.8+10.6
2 San Antonio Spurs83641977%120.1111.3+8.8
3 Detroit Pistons86622472%117.6109.7+7.9
4 Boston Celtics86592769%115.0107.1+7.9
5 Denver Nuggets86563065%121.2116.4+4.9
6 New York Knicks85553065%115.6109.6+6.0
7 Houston Rockets85553065%115.8110.6+5.2
8 Cleveland Cavaliers86533362%119.2115.6+3.7
9 Los Angeles Lakers86533362%115.3114.4+0.9
10 Toronto Raptors87503757%114.8111.8+3.0
11 Orlando Magic84483657%116.2114.8+1.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves86493757%117.8114.9+2.9
13 Phoenix Suns84473756%112.7110.6+2.0
14 Atlanta Hawks86483856%118.4116.3+2.1
15 Philadelphia 76ers86464053%115.3115.9-0.6
16 Charlotte Hornets87464153%116.3111.7+4.6
17 Los Angeles Clippers84434151%113.4112.2+1.2
18 Miami Heat87434449%120.3118.7+1.7
19 Portland Trail Blazers85424349%115.7116.3-0.6
20 Golden State Warriors86404647%114.7115.1-0.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks86355141%110.8116.5-5.7
22 Chicago Bulls86345240%116.4121.1-4.7
23 Dallas Mavericks85285733%113.7118.7-4.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans83265731%115.7120.1-4.5
25 Memphis Grizzlies86266030%115.0121.0-6.0
26 Utah Jazz85236227%117.9126.1-8.2
27 Sacramento Kings85236227%111.1120.9-9.8
28 Brooklyn Nets85216425%106.3116.1-9.7
29 Indiana Pacers86216524%112.6120.5-8.0
30 Washington Wizards85186721%112.8124.4-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
San Antonio Spurs34223527118
Denver Nuggets37333127128
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.