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San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 28 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#14
Record5-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game115.5
Allowed / game109.4
vs
Position#7
Record6-4
FormLWLWW
Points / game114.8
Allowed / game114.7
USANBA· Frost Bank Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · San Antonio Spurs v Denver Nuggets
28 Feb 2027
SAS v DEN
upcoming
12 Apr 2026
SAS118
DEN128
12 Mar 2026
SAS131
DEN136
04 Jan 2025
SAS111
DEN122
12 Apr 2024
SAS121
DEN120
15 Mar 2024
SAS106
DEN117
10 Mar 2023
SAS128
DEN120
07 Nov 2022
SAS109
DEN115
11 Dec 2021
SAS112
DEN127
09 Dec 2021
SAS123
DEN111
29 Jan 2021
SAS119
DEN109
05 Aug 2020
SAS126
DEN132
25 Apr 2019
SAS120
DEN103
20 Apr 2019
SAS103
DEN117
18 Apr 2019
SAS118
DEN108
04 Mar 2019
SAS104
DEN103
26 Dec 2018
SAS111
DEN103
30 Jan 2018
SAS106
DEN104
13 Jan 2018
SAS112
DEN80
08 Oct 2017
SAS122
DEN100
04 Feb 2017
SAS121
DEN97
19 Jan 2017
SAS118
DEN104
26 Dec 2015
SAS101
DEN86
18 Nov 2015
SAS109
DEN98
03 Apr 2015
SAS123
DEN93
06 Mar 2015
SAS120
DEN111
26 Mar 2014
SAS108
DEN103
27 Mar 2013
SAS100
DEN99
17 Nov 2012
SAS126
DEN100
12 Oct 2012
SAS91
DEN97
04 Mar 2012
SAS94
DEN99
07 Jan 2012
SAS121
DEN117
16 Jan 2011
SAS110
DEN97
22 Dec 2010
SAS109
DEN103
31 Jan 2010
SAS89
DEN103
05 Dec 2009
SAS99
DEN106
19 Nov 2008
SAS81
DEN91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

San Antonio Spurs win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#6
L
116-123
116
123
-7
H09/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
98-102
98
102
-4
A11/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
L
109-119
109
119
-10
A13/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
123-103
123
103
+20
H15/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
126-97
126
97
+29
H17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
L
104-116
104
116
-12
H21/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
110-114
110
114
-4
H24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
122-106
122
106
+16
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
130-103
130
103
+27
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
W
117-111 OT
117
111
+6
A29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
39-20
30-42
26-31
21-30
25-35
26-23
22-27
25-17
26-33
35-35
17-31
31-20
22-23
38-26
32-26
31-28
42-18
29-19
30-35
25-25
28-34
16-31
36-28
24-23
27-32
32-29
22-24
29-29
32-31
36-29
24-29
30-17
39-29
41-25
27-26
23-23
22-32
29-23
34-30
20-20
224.9Avg total
115.5Scored
109.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)115.5109.4224.9+6.150%
Season at home (6)118.2109.3227.5+8.850%
Season away (4)111.5109.5221.0+2.050%
Last 10 (10)115.5109.4224.9+6.150%
Last 5 (5)116.6110.0226.6+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)110.0114.0224.0-4.00%
vs Similar (13)108.8108.3217.2+0.538%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)117.6104.5222.1+13.169%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#21
L
97-109
97
109
-12
H04/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
W
117-106
117
106
+11
A07/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
W
133-128
133
128
+5
H12/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
110-122
110
122
-12
A15/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
121-106
121
106
+15
A17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
L
84-96
84
96
-12
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
114-134
114
134
-20
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
104-91
104
91
+13
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
127-120
127
120
+7
A31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-36
26-27
25-25
20-21
24-31
41-28
30-22
22-25
29-27
30-41
40-26
34-34
24-24
31-34
26-38
29-26
36-22
26-33
26-28
33-23
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
229.5Avg total
114.8Scored
114.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.8114.7229.5+0.160%
Season at home (4)121.2126.5247.8-5.250%
Season away (6)110.5106.8217.3+3.767%
Last 10 (10)114.8114.7229.5+0.160%
Last 5 (5)114.0115.2229.2-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)126.2123.2249.5+3.075%
vs Similar (15)111.0111.7222.7-0.753%
vs Weaker (11)129.6118.7248.4+10.991%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +2.2+2.2
San Antonio SpursDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
69-62
69
62
+7
H09/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A11/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
L
61-68
61
68
-7
A13/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
60-49
60
49
+11
H15/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
71-37
71
37
+34
H17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
L
44-65
44
65
-21
H21/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
59-61
59
61
-2
H24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
68-60
68
60
+8
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#30
W
80-54
80
54
+26
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A29/10
NBA
118.3Avg total
61.4Scored
56.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.453.4110.8+4.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.649.4106.9+8.269%-
Last 30 away (14)57.358.0115.3-0.736%-
Last 10 (10)61.456.9118.3+4.550%-
Last 5 (5)60.459.0119.4+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)59.061.0120.0-2.00%-
vs Similar (13)56.053.3109.3+2.762%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)58.553.0111.5+5.550%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#21
L
52-63
52
63
-11
H04/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#21
W
65-59
65
59
+6
A07/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
L
59-68
59
68
-9
H12/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
55-58
55
58
-3
A15/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A17/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
117.4Avg total
58.2Scored
59.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.258.9119.1+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (17)61.261.4122.6-0.235%-
Last 30 away (13)58.955.6114.5+3.369%-
Last 10 (10)58.259.2117.4-1.050%-
Last 5 (5)57.857.8115.6+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)62.559.8122.2+2.850%-
vs Similar (15)56.656.8113.4-0.253%-
vs Weaker (11)64.361.5125.7+2.845%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 111.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.326.3
51.3%
54.0%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.913.1
33.7%
34.9%39.3
🏀 Free throws25.119.6
78.1%
76.2%19.6
They take 90.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 108.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.928.5
56.0%
54.0%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.710.4
32.8%
34.9%31.2
🏀 Free throws28.020.7
73.9%
76.2%20.7
They take 82.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
San Antonio Spurs
WWWLLWWLLL
Denver Nuggets
WWLWLWLWWL
#14
League position
#7
+2.7
Net rating
-4.0
99.4
Offensive rating
103.4
96.7
Defensive rating
107.4
50.9%
Effective FG%
53.4%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
14.8%
Turnover %
13.2%
20.3%
Off. rebound %
11.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.7%
3-point %
32.8%
63.7%
Assist %
68.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence99.4 · 103.4Defence96.7 · 107.4Shooting50.9% · 53.4%3-point %33.7% · 32.8%Ball care14.8% · 13.2%Off. rebounds20.3% · 11.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ San Antonio Spurs   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
San Antonio Spurs wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26AUtah Jazz117-111 OT
28/10/26HSacramento Kings130-103
25/10/26ADallas Mavericks122-106
24/10/26HHouston Rockets110-114
21/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder104-116
17/10/26HSacramento Kings126-97
15/10/26HPhoenix Suns123-103
13/10/26AUtah Jazz109-119
11/10/26APhoenix Suns98-102
09/10/26HAtlanta Hawks116-123
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
17/10/26ALos Angeles Lakers121-106
15/10/26ALos Angeles Clippers110-122
12/10/26HChicago Bulls133-128
07/10/26AUtah Jazz117-106
04/10/26HUtah Jazz97-109

📊 11. Overall Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW50%
HomeWWLLW50%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game115.5118.2111.5
Allowed / game109.4109.3109.5
Point differential+6.1+8.8+2.0
Avg total224.9227.5221.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %10%0%25%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW60%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayLWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.8121.2110.5
Allowed / game114.7126.5106.8
Point differential+0.1-5.2+3.7
Avg total229.5247.8217.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %10%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics98189%123.4110.0+13.4
2 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Atlanta Hawks117464%120.7115.7+5.0
7 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
8 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
9 Minnesota Timberwolves127558%118.8112.4+6.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Orlando Magic95456%116.0117.8-1.8
12 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
13 Toronto Raptors105550%119.6111.5+8.1
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Washington Wizards105550%111.6111.3+0.3
16 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
17 Dallas Mavericks105550%114.3115.7-1.4
18 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
19 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
20 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
21 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
22 Charlotte Hornets104640%97.0108.0-11.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
26 Indiana Pacers103730%117.9119.2-1.3
27 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
28 New York Knicks113827%106.5115.2-8.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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