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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 10 Mar 2016
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 114-108
29-22 28-32 23-31 34-23
Position#24
Record28-42
FormWLWLL
Points / game99.3
Allowed / game103.3
vs
Position#9
Record41-30
FormWWWWW
Points / game97.7
Allowed / game96.8
USANBA
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
18 Jul 2025
MIL92
MIA93
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
13 Jul 2023
MIL72
MIA91
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
95-98
95
98
-3
H20/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
117-109 OT
117
109
+8
A21/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#29
W
108-101
108
101
+7
H23/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#8
L
107-112
107
112
-5
A26/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#15
L
91-102
91
102
-11
H28/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#18
W
128-121
128
121
+7
H01/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
99-104
99
104
-5
H03/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#26
W
116-101
116
101
+15
H05/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
96-104
96
104
-8
H06/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
90-100
90
100
-10
A08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-28
27-24
26-18
17-28
31-29
23-21
21-18
19-26
29-19
25-29
36-17
18-36
25-35
27-27
21-26
34-24
24-34
25-25
24-21
18-22
32-26
33-38
27-28
36-29
22-22
17-27
24-24
36-31
29-35
33-21
36-25
18-20
12-32
36-32
31-20
17-20
16-25
24-22
29-26
21-27
209.9Avg total
104.7Scored
105.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)99.3103.3202.7-4.040%
Season at home (33)101.9102.2204.2-0.358%
Season away (37)97.0104.4201.4-7.324%
Last 10 (10)104.7105.2209.9-0.540%
Last 5 (5)105.8106.0211.8-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)99.9102.4202.2-2.536%
vs Similar (15)101.1103.3204.4-2.347%
vs Weaker (1)108.0101.0209.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
115-111
115
111
+4
A20/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#16
W
114-94
114
94
+20
H21/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
101-93 OT
101
93
+8
H23/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
112-118
112
118
-6
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#8
L
89-101
89
101
-12
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
W
98-81
98
81
+17
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
129-111
129
111
+18
H02/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
108-92
108
92
+16
H04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
112-102
112
102
+10
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
103-98
103
98
+5
H06/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-19
30-33
27-29
36-30
30-19
29-25
23-24
32-26
15-25
26-19
29-25
18-19
30-21
25-30
28-29
29-38
26-18
23-28
21-26
19-29
23-19
21-20
25-26
29-16
36-30
29-32
30-20
34-29
29-21
28-22
27-25
24-24
40-29
19-20
25-28
28-25
30-25
17-24
22-20
34-29
208.2Avg total
108.1Scored
100.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (71)97.796.8194.6+0.958%
Season at home (37)100.397.1197.4+3.262%
Season away (34)94.996.6191.5-1.653%
Last 10 (10)108.1100.1208.2+8.080%
Last 5 (5)110.096.8206.8+13.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)97.5111.8209.2-14.20%
vs Similar (16)98.299.4197.6-1.156%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)100.095.3195.3+4.780%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
D
52-52
52
52
+0
H20/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A21/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#29
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H23/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#8
L
52-62
52
62
-10
A26/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#15
L
49-59
49
59
-10
H28/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#18
W
65-64
65
64
+1
H01/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
39-49
39
49
-10
H03/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#26
W
62-56
62
56
+6
H05/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
48-64
48
64
-16
H06/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A08/03
NBA
106.6Avg total
51.5Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.952.6102.5-2.833%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.653.6105.2-2.033%-
Last 30 away (15)48.151.799.8-3.533%-
Last 10 (10)51.555.1106.6-3.640%-
Last 5 (5)50.856.0106.8-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)48.952.8101.6-3.929%-
vs Similar (15)50.552.8103.3-2.333%-
vs Weaker (1)54.048.0102.0+6.0100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#10
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A20/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#16
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H21/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H23/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#8
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H02/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H06/03
NBA
100.7Avg total
52.8Scored
47.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.048.897.8+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (12)48.847.596.2+1.242%-
Last 30 away (18)49.249.798.8-0.550%-
Last 10 (10)52.847.9100.7+4.970%-
Last 5 (5)54.448.4102.8+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.551.2100.8-1.825%-
vs Similar (16)48.948.597.4+0.450%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)49.048.397.3+0.750%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 104.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀65%
🏀🏀🏀17%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers68.0 pts a game · 65% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers68.834.0
49.4%
49.0%68.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.96.1
36.1%
35.3%18.3
🏀 Free throws24.718.4
74.5%
75.5%18.4
They take 85.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 16.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 20% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀67%
🏀🏀🏀13%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers72.8 pts a game · 67% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers73.036.4
49.9%
49.0%72.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.04.8
34.3%
35.3%14.4
🏀 Free throws28.120.9
74.4%
75.5%20.9
They take 87.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 14.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 16% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LLWLWLLWWL
Miami Heat
WWWWWLLWWW
#24
League position
#9
-0.5
Net rating
+8.0
103.6
Offensive rating
107.4
104.1
Defensive rating
99.5
50.4%
Effective FG%
50.1%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
46.4%
14.9%
Turnover %
13.5%
25.1%
Off. rebound %
28.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.32
36.1%
3-point %
34.3%
59.4%
Assist %
54.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence103.6 · 107.4Defence104.1 · 99.5Shooting50.4% · 50.1%3-point %36.1% · 34.3%Ball care14.9% · 13.5%Off. rebounds25.1% · 28.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)40% · 80%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/16AChicago Bulls90-100
06/03/16HOklahoma City Thunder96-104
05/03/16HMinnesota Timberwolves116-101
03/03/16HIndiana Pacers99-104
01/03/16HHouston Rockets128-121
28/02/16HDetroit Pistons91-102
26/02/16ABoston Celtics107-112
23/02/16HLos Angeles Lakers108-101
21/02/16AAtlanta Hawks117-109 OT
20/02/16HCharlotte Hornets95-98
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/16HPhiladelphia 76ers103-98
05/03/16APhiladelphia 76ers112-102
04/03/16HPhoenix Suns108-92
02/03/16HChicago Bulls129-111
29/02/16ANew York Knicks98-81
27/02/16ABoston Celtics89-101
25/02/16HGolden State Warriors112-118
23/02/16HIndiana Pacers101-93 OT
21/02/16HWashington Wizards114-94
20/02/16AAtlanta Hawks115-111

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeLWLWL58%
AwayLLWLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703337
Win %40%58%24%
Points / game99.3101.997.0
Allowed / game103.3102.2104.4
Point differential-4.0-0.3-7.3
Avg total202.7204.2201.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%21%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won37% (19)55% (11)12% (8)
Overtime %4%6%3%
Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW58%
HomeWLWWW62%
AwayWWLWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games713734
Win %58%62%53%
Points / game97.7100.394.9
Allowed / game96.897.196.6
Point differential+0.9+3.2-1.6
Avg total194.6197.4191.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%30%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won76% (21)80% (10)73% (11)
Overtime %7%8%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors69591086%113.9104.4+9.5
2 San Antonio Spurs70561480%103.792.6+11.2
3 Oklahoma City Thunder68472169%109.6102.7+6.9
4 Toronto Raptors69472268%101.997.4+4.5
5 Cleveland Cavaliers69452465%102.397.6+4.8
6 Los Angeles Clippers68442465%104.2100.3+3.9
7 Boston Celtics70432761%105.7101.2+4.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies70432761%98.198.1+0.0
9 Charlotte Hornets71422959%102.399.4+2.9
10 Miami Heat71413058%97.796.8+0.9
11 Atlanta Hawks71403156%101.398.6+2.7
12 Indiana Pacers71393255%102.2100.2+2.0
13 Chicago Bulls70363451%101.6102.8-1.2
14 Portland Trail Blazers72373551%103.8102.8+1.0
15 Detroit Pistons71353649%101.8100.1+1.7
16 Houston Rockets72353749%106.0107.0-1.1
17 Washington Wizards69333648%103.2104.6-1.3
18 Dallas Mavericks71333846%101.2102.5-1.3
19 Utah Jazz70323846%97.797.1+0.6
20 Orlando Magic70323846%100.8102.2-1.4
21 Sacramento Kings68303844%106.4108.4-1.9
22 Denver Nuggets71304142%101.5103.6-2.0
23 New York Knicks70294141%98.8101.3-2.5
24 Milwaukee Bucks70284240%99.3103.3-4.0
25 New Orleans Pelicans70274339%102.8105.9-3.1
26 Minnesota Timberwolves72225031%100.8105.7-4.9
27 Phoenix Suns69214830%100.7106.7-5.9
28 Brooklyn Nets69204929%97.8103.9-6.1
29 Los Angeles Lakers72165622%97.6106.6-9.0
30 Philadelphia 76ers71106114%96.5107.1-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks29282334114
Miami Heat22323123108
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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