Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 11 Dec 2014

Tip-off: 03:30

Final 102-82

22-21 26-27 31-14 23-20

Position#24

Record9-12

FormWLLLL

Points / game103.5

Allowed / game105.8

Denver Nuggets 🏆

Miami Heat

Position#21

Record10-11

FormLLLLW

Points / game95.4

Allowed / game98.6

NBA

NBA2014-15

Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Miami Heat winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver Nuggets USA

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

New Orleans Pelicans

#14

117-97

117

+20

H22/11

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers

#27

101-94 OT

101

A24/11

NBA

Chicago Bulls

114-109

114

109

H26/11

NBA

Phoenix Suns

#16

112-120

112

120

-8

A27/11

NBA

Phoenix Suns

#16

122-97

122

+25

H29/11

NBA

Utah Jazz

#19

103-101

103

101

A02/12

NBA

Portland Trail Blazers

103-105

103

105

-2

H03/12

NBA

Washington Wizards

#12

89-119

119

-30

A06/12

NBA

Atlanta Hawks

84-96

-12

A07/12

NBA

Toronto Raptors

#11

107-112 OT

107

112

-5

A09/12

NBA

31-26

28-23

27-24

31-24

21-19

20-20

31-36

14-11

31-21

25-28

30-27

28-33

30-34

34-30

22-29

26-27

33-22

33-25

33-23

23-27

26-23

36-20

21-34

20-24

31-23

25-27

29-28

18-27

28-30

18-35

23-25

20-29

21-32

15-25

30-20

18-19

30-35

22-27

29-20

21-20

210.2Avg total

105.2Scored

105.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (21)	103.5	105.8	209.3	-2.2	43%
Season at home (9)	107.9	104.1	212.0	+3.8	56%
Season away (12)	100.2	107.0	207.2	-6.8	33%
Last 10 (10)	105.2	105.0	210.2	+0.2	50%
Last 5 (5)	97.2	106.6	203.8	-9.4	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	105.0	110.9	215.9	-5.9	31%
vs Similar ◀ (12)	107.2	101.4	208.7	+5.8	58%
vs Weaker (2)	97.0	101.5	198.5	-4.5	50%

This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Miami Heat USA

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Los Angeles Clippers

93-110

110

-17

H21/11

NBA

Orlando Magic

#26

99-92

A23/11

NBA

Charlotte Hornets

#22

94-93

H23/11

NBA

Golden State Warriors

97-114

114

-17

H26/11

NBA

New York Knicks

#29

86-79

A01/12

NBA

Washington Wizards

#12

86-107

107

-21

A02/12

NBA

Atlanta Hawks

102-112

102

112

-10

H04/12

NBA

Milwaukee Bucks

#15

85-109

109

-24

A06/12

NBA

Memphis Grizzlies

87-103

103

-16

A07/12

NBA

Phoenix Suns

#16

103-97

103

A10/12

NBA

15-39

25-19

26-30

27-22

22-18

27-28

19-21

31-25

23-22

30-22

14-28

27-21

36-30

26-31

24-30

11-23

21-17

21-25

23-20

22-30

27-34

17-17

20-26

18-27

29-28

25-33

30-24

30-25

20-29

21-26

14-29

26-28

22-27

27-27

12-21

28-25

18-26

27-21

30-25

194.8Avg total

93.2Scored

101.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (21)	95.4	98.6	194.0	-3.1	48%
Season at home (10)	95.2	99.8	195.0	-4.6	40%
Season away (11)	95.6	97.5	193.1	-1.8	55%
Last 10 (10)	93.2	101.6	194.8	-8.4	40%
Last 5 (5)	92.6	105.6	198.2	-13.0	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	98.1	107.4	205.5	-9.2	25%
vs Similar ◀ (19)	93.8	96.5	190.4	-2.7	47%
vs Weaker (3)	100.7	89.0	189.7	+11.7	100%

This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Denver NuggetsMiami Heat

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	25.6	27.9	53.5	-2.3	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	26.9	25.9	52.9	+1.0	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	24.4	29.6	54.0	-5.2	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	28.2	26.5	54.7	+1.7	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	27.2	28.6	55.8	-1.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	25.6	29.8	55.4	-4.2	31%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	25.8	25.5	51.2	+0.2	67%	-
vs Weaker (2)	24.5	27.0	51.5	-2.5	0%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.8	24.9	48.7	-1.1	53%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	24.1	25.2	49.3	-1.1	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	23.5	24.6	48.1	-1.1	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.1	26.1	50.2	-2.0	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	24.8	27.0	51.8	-2.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	26.1	29.4	55.5	-3.2	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (19)	22.3	23.8	46.1	-1.5	47%	-
vs Weaker (3)	27.3	20.0	47.3	+7.3	100%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	25.5	27.1	52.6	-1.6	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	26.2	27.3	53.5	-1.1	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	24.9	26.9	51.8	-2.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	25.6	26.0	51.6	-0.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.2	26.8	50.0	-3.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	24.3	29.8	54.1	-5.5	31%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	29.3	23.7	53.0	+5.7	75%	-
vs Weaker (2)	12.0	26.0	38.0	-14.0	0%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	24.7	24.3	49.0	+0.4	53%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	25.8	24.6	50.4	+1.2	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	23.6	24.1	47.7	-0.5	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.5	26.1	50.6	-1.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.2	28.8	52.0	-5.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	26.8	26.4	53.1	+0.4	62%	-
vs Similar ◀ (19)	23.9	23.7	47.6	+0.2	47%	-
vs Weaker (3)	24.3	23.0	47.3	+1.3	67%	-

Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

New Orleans Pelicans

#14

59-49

+10

H22/11

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers

#27

41-39

A24/11

NBA

Chicago Bulls

56-49

H26/11

NBA

Phoenix Suns

#16

64-64

A27/11

NBA

Phoenix Suns

#16

66-47

+19

H29/11

NBA

Utah Jazz

#19

62-43

+19

A02/12

NBA

Portland Trail Blazers

56-50

H03/12

NBA

Washington Wizards

#12

46-65

-19

A06/12

NBA

Atlanta Hawks

36-57

-21

A07/12

NBA

Toronto Raptors

#11

52-62

-10

A09/12

NBA

106.3Avg total

53.8Scored

52.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	51.1	55.0	106.1	-3.9	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	53.1	53.2	106.4	-0.1	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	49.2	56.6	105.8	-7.3	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	53.8	52.5	106.3	+1.3	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	50.4	55.4	105.8	-5.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	49.9	59.6	109.5	-9.8	31%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	55.1	49.2	104.2	+5.9	67%	-
vs Weaker (2)	36.5	53.0	89.5	-16.5	0%	-

This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Los Angeles Clippers

40-58

-18

H21/11

NBA

Orlando Magic

#26

49-46

A23/11

NBA

Charlotte Hornets

#22

53-44

H23/11

NBA

Golden State Warriors

62-61

H26/11

NBA

New York Knicks

#29

42-34

A01/12

NBA

Washington Wizards

#12

49-64

-15

A02/12

NBA

Atlanta Hawks

47-55

-8

H04/12

NBA

Milwaukee Bucks

#15

50-54

-4

A06/12

NBA

Memphis Grizzlies

48-55

-7

A07/12

NBA

Phoenix Suns

#16

46-51

-5

A10/12

NBA

100.8Avg total

48.6Scored

52.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	48.5	49.2	97.7	-0.7	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	49.9	49.8	99.7	+0.1	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	47.1	48.7	95.8	-1.5	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	48.6	52.2	100.8	-3.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	48.0	55.8	103.8	-7.8	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	52.9	55.8	108.6	-2.9	38%	-
vs Similar ◀ (19)	46.2	47.5	93.6	-1.3	42%	-
vs Weaker (3)	51.7	43.0	94.7	+8.7	100%	-

This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	27.9	25.5	53.3	+2.4	67%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	29.5	25.8	55.3	+3.7	79%	-
Last 30 away (16)	26.4	25.2	51.6	+1.2	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	27.5	26.6	54.1	+0.9	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	26.4	25.4	51.8	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	28.9	23.9	52.8	+5.0	81%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	25.8	28.1	53.8	-2.3	42%	-
vs Weaker (2)	32.5	22.5	55.0	+10.0	100%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.7	24.9	48.6	-1.2	33%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.3	24.7	48.1	-1.4	33%	-
Last 30 away (15)	24.0	25.1	49.1	-1.1	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.1	25.8	47.9	-3.7	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.4	24.8	48.2	-1.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	25.2	27.0	52.2	-1.8	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (19)	22.8	23.6	46.4	-0.8	42%	-
vs Weaker (3)	25.0	27.3	52.3	-2.3	0%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	25.5	25.0	50.5	+0.5	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	27.1	25.6	52.6	+1.5	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	24.1	24.4	48.6	-0.3	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.9	24.1	46.0	-2.2	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	23.8	43.2	-4.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	25.4	25.9	51.4	-0.5	44%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	25.2	23.5	48.7	+1.7	50%	-
vs Weaker (2)	28.0	26.0	54.0	+2.0	50%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.5	24.5	48.0	-1.0	50%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.3	24.5	47.8	-1.1	40%	-
Last 30 away (15)	23.7	24.6	48.3	-0.9	60%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.5	23.6	46.1	-1.1	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	25.0	46.2	-3.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	20.0	24.6	44.6	-4.6	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (19)	24.9	25.4	50.3	-0.5	58%	-
vs Weaker (3)	24.0	18.7	42.7	+5.3	67%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	53.4	50.4	103.8	+2.9	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	56.6	51.4	107.9	+5.2	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	50.6	49.6	100.2	+0.9	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	49.4	50.7	100.1	-1.3	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	45.8	49.2	95.0	-3.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)	54.3	49.8	104.1	+4.5	69%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	50.9	51.6	102.5	-0.7	42%	-
vs Weaker (2)	60.5	48.5	109.0	+12.0	100%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	47.2	49.4	96.6	-2.3	33%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	46.7	49.2	95.9	-2.5	33%	-
Last 30 away (15)	47.7	49.7	97.3	-2.0	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.6	49.4	94.0	-4.8	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.6	49.8	94.4	-5.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	45.2	51.6	96.9	-6.4	12%	-
vs Similar ◀ (19)	47.7	49.1	96.7	-1.4	42%	-
vs Weaker (3)	49.0	46.0	95.0	+3.0	33%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Denver Nuggets wins

Miami Heat wins

Date	Game	Score
14/03/14	Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets	107-111
31/12/13	Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat	94-97
16/11/12	Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat	93-98
03/11/12	Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets	119-116
14/01/12	Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat	117-104
19/03/11	Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets	103-98
14/01/11	Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat	130-102
04/12/09	Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat	114-96
07/11/09	Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets	96-88
11/02/09	Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets	82-99

Denver Nuggetslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
09/12/14	A	Toronto Raptors	107-112 OT
07/12/14	A	Atlanta Hawks	84-96
06/12/14	A	Washington Wizards	89-119
03/12/14	H	Portland Trail Blazers	103-105
02/12/14	A	Utah Jazz	103-101
29/11/14	H	Phoenix Suns	122-97
27/11/14	A	Phoenix Suns	112-120
26/11/14	H	Chicago Bulls	114-109
24/11/14	A	Los Angeles Lakers	101-94 OT
22/11/14	H	New Orleans Pelicans	117-97

Miami Heatlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
10/12/14	A	Phoenix Suns	103-97
07/12/14	A	Memphis Grizzlies	87-103
06/12/14	A	Milwaukee Bucks	85-109
04/12/14	H	Atlanta Hawks	102-112
02/12/14	A	Washington Wizards	86-107
01/12/14	A	New York Knicks	86-79
26/11/14	H	Golden State Warriors	97-114
23/11/14	H	Charlotte Hornets	94-93
23/11/14	A	Orlando Magic	99-92
21/11/14	H	Los Angeles Clippers	93-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets

NBA 2014-15

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLLL	43%
Home	WWWWL	56%
Away	LWLLL	33%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	21	9	12
Win %	43%	56%	33%
Points / game	103.5	107.9	100.2
Allowed / game	105.8	104.1	107.0
Point differential	-2.2	+3.8	-6.8
Avg total	209.3	212.0	207.2
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	19%	33%	8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	40% (5)	33% (3)	50% (2)
Overtime %	10%	0%	17%

Miami Heat

NBA 2014-15

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLW	48%
Home	LLWLL	40%
Away	WLLLW	55%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	21	10	11
Win %	48%	40%	55%
Points / game	95.4	95.2	95.6
Allowed / game	98.6	99.8	97.5
Point differential	-3.1	-4.6	-1.8
Avg total	194.0	195.0	193.1
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	19%	20%	18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (2)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Golden State Warriors	20	18	2	90%	106.8	95.7	+11.2
2	Memphis Grizzlies	21	17	4	81%	101.0	94.0	+7.0
3	Houston Rockets	20	16	4	80%	98.8	94.0	+4.8
4	Portland Trail Blazers	22	17	5	77%	102.2	95.3	+6.9
5	Los Angeles Clippers	21	16	5	76%	106.9	99.4	+7.5
6	Toronto Raptors	22	16	6	73%	108.5	100.5	+8.0
7	San Antonio Spurs	22	16	6	73%	101.3	94.3	+7.0
8	Atlanta Hawks	21	15	6	71%	103.3	98.0	+5.2
9	Washington Wizards	21	15	6	71%	100.9	97.2	+3.6
10	Dallas Mavericks	24	17	7	71%	110.5	103.2	+7.3
11	Cleveland Cavaliers	20	13	7	65%	103.5	98.2	+5.2
12	Chicago Bulls	21	13	8	62%	102.7	99.5	+3.2
13	Phoenix Suns	23	12	11	52%	105.5	103.9	+1.7
14	Sacramento Kings	22	11	11	50%	101.1	101.1	+0.0
15	Milwaukee Bucks	23	11	12	48%	98.8	100.5	-1.7
16	New Orleans Pelicans	21	10	11	48%	100.9	100.5	+0.4
17	Miami Heat	21	10	11	48%	95.4	98.6	-3.1
18	Denver Nuggets	21	9	12	43%	103.5	105.8	-2.2
19	Brooklyn Nets	20	8	12	40%	96.0	100.2	-4.3
20	Oklahoma City Thunder	21	8	13	38%	93.5	94.4	-0.9
21	Orlando Magic	24	9	15	38%	94.7	99.7	-5.0
22	Boston Celtics	20	7	13	35%	104.7	106.8	-2.0
23	Indiana Pacers	22	7	15	32%	93.5	97.1	-3.6
24	Charlotte Hornets	21	6	15	29%	94.2	100.5	-6.3
25	Utah Jazz	22	6	16	27%	96.2	102.1	-5.9
26	Los Angeles Lakers	22	6	16	27%	102.3	110.1	-7.8
27	Minnesota Timberwolves	21	5	16	24%	99.0	108.8	-9.8
28	New York Knicks	24	4	20	17%	93.8	99.7	-5.9
29	Detroit Pistons	22	3	19	14%	92.8	99.5	-6.7
30	Philadelphia 76ers	21	2	19	10%	91.3	103.6	-12.3

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Denver Nuggets	22	26	31	23	102
Miami Heat	21	27	14	20	82

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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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