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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 09 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 135-122
40-27 31-33 33-30 31-32
Position#9
Record5-3
FormWLWWW
Points / game119.0
Allowed / game117.2
vs
Position#20
Record3-4
FormWLWLL
Points / game109.1
Allowed / game108.6
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
70-115
70
115
-45
53avg 108
A17/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
90-98
90
98
-8
79avg 108
H20/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
87-102
87
102
-15
80avg 108
H25/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
104-109
104
109
-5
88avg 108
H26/10
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
127-125 OT
127
125
+2
122avg 108
A28/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
144-139 OT
144
139
+5
140avg 108
A29/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
116-119
116
119
-3
110avg 108
A02/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
129-103
129
103
+26
126avg 108
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
121-119
121
119
+2
118avg 108
H05/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
124-122
124
122
+2
126avg 108
H07/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-31
26-28
21-27
9-29
24-19
29-19
14-28
23-32
24-31
27-27
17-27
19-17
19-27
23-21
29-22
33-39
29-30
25-32
29-26
31-26
27-40
36-32
33-27
29-26
29-33
32-31
24-27
31-28
37-26
28-30
34-19
30-28
34-37
25-27
29-29
33-26
30-32
25-34
40-29
29-27
226.3Avg total
111.2Scored
115.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)119.0117.2236.2+1.862%
Season at home (5)113.0111.0224.0+2.060%
Season away (3)129.0127.7256.7+1.367%
Last 10 (10)111.2115.1226.3-3.950%
Last 5 (5)126.8120.4247.2+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)105.5112.0217.5-6.550%
vs Similar ◀ (14)103.1105.1208.3-2.036%
vs Weaker (14)119.5111.4230.9+8.186%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
66-105
66
105
-39
no box
A06/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#4
W
102-86
102
86
+16
no box
A07/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#6
W
80-76
80
76
+4
98avg 104
A10/07
California Classic
Orlando Magic
#15
L
97-116
97
116
-19
87avg 104
H23/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
114-106
114
106
+8
111avg 104
A26/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
106-98
106
98
+8
96avg 104
H28/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
107-116
107
116
-9
100avg 104
H30/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
118-98
118
98
+20
107avg 104
A03/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
110-111
110
111
-1
96avg 104
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
L
112-115
112
115
-3
104avg 104
A07/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-19
22-31
11-30
21-25
27-20
29-24
20-22
26-20
21-21
15-19
23-18
21-18
32-32
22-26
18-39
25-19
23-23
33-25
27-24
31-34
28-30
36-23
14-26
28-19
32-26
26-26
22-35
27-29
31-21
25-27
33-22
29-28
25-22
36-26
17-37
32-26
25-26
33-29
29-29
25-31
203.9Avg total
101.2Scored
102.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)109.1108.6217.7+0.643%
Season at home (4)105.0110.2215.2-5.225%
Season away (3)114.7106.3221.0+8.367%
Last 10 (10)101.2102.7203.9-1.550%
Last 5 (5)110.6107.6218.2+3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)92.0105.8197.8-13.825%
vs Similar ◀ (15)106.6106.3212.9+0.340%
vs Weaker (7)116.696.4213.0+20.1100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.9-3.9Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -0.5-0.5Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -6.8-6.8Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.9-3.9Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -0.5-0.5Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -6.8-6.8Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A17/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H20/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H25/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H26/10
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
54-62
54
62
-8
A28/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
63-72
63
72
-9
A29/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A02/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
59-64
59
64
-5
H05/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
55-66
55
66
-11
H07/11
NBA
113.0Avg total
54.3Scored
58.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.055.2109.3-1.240%-
Last 30 at home (18)52.154.8106.9-2.739%-
Last 30 away (12)56.955.9112.8+1.042%-
Last 10 (10)54.358.7113.0-4.420%-
Last 5 (5)60.664.4125.0-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)53.062.0115.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)50.251.9102.1-1.643%-
vs Weaker (14)58.057.6115.6+0.443%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A06/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#4
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A07/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#6
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A10/07
California Classic
Orlando Magic
#15
L
54-58
54
58
-4
H23/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A26/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
64-53
64
53
+11
H28/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H30/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A03/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A07/11
NBA
102.9Avg total
53.3Scored
49.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.851.8105.6+2.060%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.250.8106.0+4.462%-
Last 30 away (14)52.252.9105.1-0.757%-
Last 10 (10)53.349.6102.9+3.770%-
Last 5 (5)59.451.2110.6+8.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)46.556.4102.9-9.925%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)54.751.5106.2+3.367%-
vs Weaker (7)60.147.3107.4+12.986%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 111.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.928.4
49.1%
54.3%56.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.311.1
34.4%
35.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws26.821.1
78.7%
77.8%21.1
They take 90.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 101.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.725.3
48.0%
54.3%50.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.911.7
33.5%
35.9%35.1
🏀 Free throws20.815.7
75.5%
77.8%15.7
They take 87.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWWLWWLLLL
Miami Heat
LLWLWWLWWL
#9
League position
#20
-3.8
Net rating
-4.4
108.6
Offensive rating
105.1
112.4
Defensive rating
109.4
49.9%
Effective FG%
48.9%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
13.1%
Turnover %
11.0%
28.0%
Off. rebound %
22.9%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.24
34.4%
3-point %
33.5%
68.6%
Assist %
62.7%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence108.6 · 105.1Defence112.4 · 109.4Shooting49.9% · 48.9%3-point %34.4% · 33.5%Ball care13.1% · 11.0%Off. rebounds28.0% · 22.9%Free throws0.30 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Denver Nuggets wins
1
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/24HOklahoma City Thunder124-122
05/11/24HToronto Raptors121-119
03/11/24HUtah Jazz129-103
02/11/24AMinnesota Timberwolves116-119
29/10/24ABrooklyn Nets144-139 OT
28/10/24AToronto Raptors127-125 OT
26/10/24HLos Angeles Clippers104-109
25/10/24HOklahoma City Thunder87-102
20/05/24HMinnesota Timberwolves90-98
17/05/24AMinnesota Timberwolves70-115
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/24APhoenix Suns112-115
05/11/24HSacramento Kings110-111
03/11/24AWashington Wizards118-98
30/10/24HNew York Knicks107-116
28/10/24HDetroit Pistons106-98
26/10/24ACharlotte Hornets114-106
23/10/24HOrlando Magic97-116
10/07/24ALos Angeles Lakers80-76
07/07/24ASacramento Kings102-86
06/07/24AGolden State Warriors66-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeLLWWW60%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %62%60%67%
Points / game119.0113.0129.0
Allowed / game117.2111.0127.7
Point differential+1.8+2.0+1.3
Avg total236.2224.0256.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)67% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %25%0%67%
Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL43%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %43%25%67%
Points / game109.1105.0114.7
Allowed / game108.6110.2106.3
Point differential+0.6-5.2+8.3
Avg total217.7215.2221.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers10100100%124.5111.2+13.3
2 Oklahoma City Thunder98189%115.7100.2+15.4
3 Phoenix Suns98189%114.4111.1+3.3
4 Boston Celtics108280%120.9109.9+11.0
5 Golden State Warriors97278%120.7108.7+12.0
6 Sacramento Kings85362%118.8113.1+5.6
7 Minnesota Timberwolves85362%114.6110.9+3.8
8 Denver Nuggets85362%119.0117.2+1.8
9 Memphis Grizzlies106460%119.6113.8+5.8
10 Dallas Mavericks95456%113.4108.8+4.7
11 Houston Rockets95456%113.0108.9+4.1
12 New York Knicks84450%113.6108.6+5.0
13 Los Angeles Clippers84450%109.1107.8+1.4
14 Los Angeles Lakers84450%115.9120.0-4.1
15 Brooklyn Nets94544%112.4113.1-0.7
16 San Antonio Spurs94544%105.9108.1-2.2
17 Charlotte Hornets94544%110.0113.1-3.1
18 Indiana Pacers94544%114.4118.6-4.1
19 Miami Heat73443%109.1108.6+0.6
20 Orlando Magic104640%106.7107.5-0.8
21 Detroit Pistons104640%107.9110.5-2.6
22 Atlanta Hawks104640%116.4121.3-4.9
23 Portland Trail Blazers93633%107.8113.6-5.8
24 Chicago Bulls93633%113.7121.1-7.4
25 New Orleans Pelicans103730%107.2117.5-10.3
26 Washington Wizards72529%112.3123.9-11.6
27 Milwaukee Bucks92722%111.0116.0-5.0
28 Toronto Raptors92722%118.0124.7-6.7
29 Philadelphia 76ers71614%107.1115.7-8.6
30 Utah Jazz81712%104.2120.0-15.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets40313331135
Miami Heat27333032122
← all games of the day
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