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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 01 Dec 2016
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 98-106
30-28 17-24 33-23 18-31
Position#17
Record7-10
FormWWLLW
Points / game107.0
Allowed / game108.9
vs
Position#13
Record5-12
FormLLWLL
Points / game96.1
Allowed / game98.2
USANBA· Pepsi Center
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
101-125
101
125
-24
89avg 96
H11/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
95-106
95
106
-11
80avg 96
H13/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
105-112
105
112
-7
90avg 96
A14/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
120-104
120
104
+16
113avg 96
H17/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
L
111-113 OT
111
113
-2
114avg 96
H19/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
W
105-91
105
91
+14
101avg 96
H21/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
110-107
110
107
+3
102avg 96
H23/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
83-108
83
108
-25
62avg 96
A24/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
129-132 OT
129
132
-3
125avg 96
H26/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
120-114
120
114
+6
111avg 96
A27/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-38
32-27
24-34
26-26
21-36
28-21
22-23
24-26
28-20
29-30
15-36
33-26
28-17
33-26
28-33
31-28
19-29
38-23
25-25
20-25
24-14
29-27
23-22
29-28
19-31
41-29
31-28
19-19
27-36
20-17
14-31
22-24
30-31
33-31
26-22
33-38
29-28
34-15
23-36
34-35
219.1Avg total
107.9Scored
111.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)107.0108.9215.9-1.941%
Season at home (8)110.5111.6222.1-1.138%
Season away (9)103.9106.4210.3-2.644%
Last 10 (10)107.9111.2219.1-3.340%
Last 5 (5)109.4110.4219.8-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)95.9109.9205.7-14.029%
vs Similar ◀ (19)103.9107.0210.9-3.132%
vs Weaker (4)115.0106.5221.5+8.5100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#8
L
91-102
91
102
-11
80avg 91
H13/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
90-94
90
94
-4
78avg 91
A15/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
90-93
90
93
-3
74avg 91
H16/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
W
96-73
96
73
+23
82avg 91
H18/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#9
W
114-111
114
111
+3
106avg 91
A20/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
L
94-101
94
101
-7
79avg 91
A22/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
84-107
84
107
-23
71avg 91
A24/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
90-81
90
81
+9
75avg 91
A26/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
L
107-110
107
110
-3
95avg 91
H27/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
104-112
104
112
-8
96avg 91
H29/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-23
26-29
12-24
32-26
19-25
21-30
20-16
30-23
25-22
18-27
24-23
23-21
21-27
27-21
19-14
29-11
33-35
27-24
31-23
23-29
30-24
15-22
31-32
18-23
16-28
26-28
22-30
20-21
28-19
17-20
26-18
19-24
31-24
18-27
33-31
25-28
19-21
12-27
42-35
31-29
194.4Avg total
96.0Scored
98.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)96.198.2194.3-2.229%
Season at home (9)97.998.6196.4-0.722%
Season away (8)94.097.9191.9-3.938%
Last 10 (10)96.098.4194.4-2.430%
Last 5 (5)95.8102.2198.0-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)94.5100.0194.5-5.50%
vs Similar ◀ (25)94.795.9190.6-1.236%
vs Weaker (3)103.397.7201.0+5.767%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +7.1+7.1Q2: -4.8-4.8Q3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +1.5+1.5
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +7.1+7.1Q2: -4.8-4.8Q3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +1.5+1.5
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
51-65
51
65
-14
H11/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
49-57
49
57
-8
H13/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A14/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
61-43
61
43
+18
H17/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H19/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H21/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
D
60-60
60
60
+0
H23/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
47-53
47
53
-6
A24/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H26/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
63-43
63
43
+20
A27/11
NBA
108.7Avg total
56.1Scored
52.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.953.1107.9+1.843%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.154.4108.5-0.243%-
Last 30 away (16)55.551.9107.4+3.644%-
Last 10 (10)56.152.6108.7+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)57.251.8109.0+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)50.454.6105.0-4.114%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)55.754.4110.1+1.342%-
vs Weaker (4)58.844.2103.0+14.5100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#8
L
47-52
47
52
-5
H13/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
40-55
40
55
-15
A15/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H16/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
D
48-48
48
48
+0
H18/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#9
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A20/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A22/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A24/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
45-39
45
39
+6
A26/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H27/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H29/11
NBA
95.3Avg total
45.0Scored
50.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.649.697.2-2.130%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.148.597.6+0.540%-
Last 30 away (15)46.150.796.8-4.720%-
Last 10 (10)45.050.395.3-5.320%-
Last 5 (5)42.448.090.4-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)42.053.595.5-11.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (25)47.849.397.1-1.632%-
vs Weaker (3)49.749.799.3+0.033%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 107.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.329.7
46.2%
50.2%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.69.7
36.5%
35.7%29.1
🏀 Free throws26.519.4
73.2%
77.0%19.4
They take 90.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 96.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.428.6
49.0%
50.2%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.17.9
30.3%
35.7%23.7
🏀 Free throws23.315.1
64.8%
77.0%15.1
They take 84.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Dec 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLLWWLWLLL
Miami Heat
LLWLLWWLLL
#17
League position
#13
-3.2
Net rating
-2.5
104.9
Offensive rating
100.9
108.2
Defensive rating
103.4
48.7%
Effective FG%
47.9%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
13.6%
Turnover %
13.0%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
25.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.28
36.5%
3-point %
30.3%
58.4%
Assist %
52.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence104.9 · 100.9Defence108.2 · 103.4Shooting48.7% · 47.9%3-point %36.5% · 30.3%Ball care13.6% · 13.0%Off. rebounds28.2% · 25.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Denver Nuggets wins
7
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/16APhoenix Suns120-114
26/11/16HOklahoma City Thunder129-132 OT
24/11/16AUtah Jazz83-108
23/11/16HChicago Bulls110-107
21/11/16HUtah Jazz105-91
19/11/16HToronto Raptors111-113 OT
17/11/16HPhoenix Suns120-104
14/11/16APortland Trail Blazers105-112
13/11/16HDetroit Pistons95-106
11/11/16HGolden State Warriors101-125
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/11/16HBoston Celtics104-112
27/11/16HMemphis Grizzlies107-110
26/11/16AMemphis Grizzlies90-81
24/11/16ADetroit Pistons84-107
22/11/16APhiladelphia 76ers94-101
20/11/16AWashington Wizards114-111
18/11/16HMilwaukee Bucks96-73
16/11/16HAtlanta Hawks90-93
15/11/16ASan Antonio Spurs90-94
13/11/16HUtah Jazz91-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW41%
HomeWLWWL38%
AwayWLLLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %41%38%44%
Points / game107.0110.5103.9
Allowed / game108.9111.6106.4
Point differential-1.9-1.1-2.6
Avg total215.9222.1210.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)25% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %18%38%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL29%
HomeLLWLL22%
AwayLWLLW38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %29%22%38%
Points / game96.197.994.0
Allowed / game98.298.697.9
Point differential-2.2-0.7-3.9
Avg total194.3196.4191.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%22%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors1816289%117.6104.9+12.7
2 Cleveland Cavaliers1613381%111.3103.8+7.6
3 San Antonio Spurs1915479%102.797.8+4.9
4 Los Angeles Clippers1914574%108.698.9+9.6
5 Toronto Raptors1812667%109.7104.3+5.4
6 Houston Rockets1811761%109.3106.3+3.0
7 Oklahoma City Thunder2012860%108.0105.8+2.2
8 Chicago Bulls1710759%104.498.8+5.6
9 Utah Jazz1911858%98.793.8+4.9
10 Memphis Grizzlies1911858%97.398.5-1.2
11 Atlanta Hawks1810856%101.699.4+2.1
12 Charlotte Hornets1810856%104.8102.8+1.9
13 Boston Celtics1810856%105.0104.4+0.6
14 Detroit Pistons20101050%99.497.5+1.9
15 Milwaukee Bucks168850%102.7102.2+0.4
16 Indiana Pacers189950%103.5105.1-1.6
17 Los Angeles Lakers20101050%106.6109.5-3.0
18 New York Knicks189950%103.4106.5-3.1
19 Portland Trail Blazers1991047%109.7113.7-4.1
20 Denver Nuggets1771041%107.0108.9-1.9
21 Sacramento Kings1871139%103.2105.2-2.1
22 Orlando Magic1871139%92.398.0-5.7
23 New Orleans Pelicans1971237%102.8104.9-2.1
24 Washington Wizards1761135%102.8105.7-2.9
25 Miami Heat1751229%96.198.2-2.2
26 Brooklyn Nets1751229%106.2114.5-8.3
27 Minnesota Timberwolves1851328%103.1104.1-1.0
28 Phoenix Suns1851328%106.1112.2-6.1
29 Philadelphia 76ers1841422%97.9107.9-10.0
30 Dallas Mavericks1731418%91.2100.0-8.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets3017331898
Miami Heat28242331106
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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