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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 Jan 2016
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 95-98
31-20 31-26 16-30 17-22
Position#22
Record15-24
FormLWLWW
Points / game98.6
Allowed / game102.9
vs
Position#8
Record22-17
FormLWLLL
Points / game96.9
Allowed / game95.5
USANBA· Pepsi Center
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
86-101
86
101
-15
76avg 89
A27/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
112-122
112
122
-10
98avg 89
A28/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#3
L
87-93
87
93
-6
77avg 89
H30/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
103-110
103
110
-7
92avg 89
A31/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
108-111 OT
108
111
-3
94avg 89
A03/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
106-112
106
112
-6
91avg 89
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#26
W
78-74
78
74
+4
69avg 89
A07/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
L
84-91
84
91
-7
78avg 89
A09/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
95-92
95
92
+3
92avg 89
H11/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
112-110
112
110
+2
104avg 89
H14/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
22-34
23-20
21-25
31-32
30-21
29-38
22-31
21-26
21-27
20-19
25-21
27-26
24-32
20-26
32-26
13-37
34-26
30-27
25-12
22-23
34-38
24-19
26-32
21-25
21-19
24-21
12-9
30-29
7-20
29-18
18-24
36-26
17-30
28-21
14-15
32-25
23-29
28-19
29-37
198.7Avg total
97.1Scored
101.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)98.6102.9201.6-4.338%
Season at home (18)99.8104.3204.2-4.539%
Season away (21)97.6101.8199.4-4.138%
Last 10 (10)97.1101.6198.7-4.530%
Last 5 (5)95.095.8190.8-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)97.6105.0202.6-7.425%
vs Similar (16)97.4100.9198.3-3.438%
vs Weaker (2)107.5108.0215.5-0.550%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
105-111
105
111
-6
97avg 89
H29/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
L
90-99 OT
90
99
-9
80avg 89
A30/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
W
106-82
106
82
+24
108avg 89
H02/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
97-75
97
75
+22
98avg 89
A03/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
103-100 OT
103
100
+3
86avg 89
H05/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
L
90-98
90
98
-8
74avg 89
H07/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
103-95
103
95
+8
100avg 89
A09/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
L
83-98
83
98
-15
65avg 89
A10/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
103-111
103
111
-8
100avg 89
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
90-104
90
104
-14
92avg 89
A14/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-24
32-20
19-34
28-33
30-26
17-21
15-22
21-14
22-10
36-35
22-16
26-21
25-24
25-7
23-20
24-24
19-29
25-18
22-27
29-21
21-22
18-25
20-24
31-27
21-20
32-20
24-33
26-22
29-19
20-26
19-27
15-26
25-27
29-29
23-24
26-31
25-17
27-28
17-34
21-25
194.3Avg total
97.0Scored
97.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)96.995.5192.4+1.556%
Season at home (23)99.495.7195.1+3.765%
Season away (16)93.495.1188.6-1.744%
Last 10 (10)97.097.3194.3-0.340%
Last 5 (5)93.8101.2195.0-7.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)99.796.7196.3+3.067%
vs Similar (15)95.598.4193.9-2.940%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)98.495.4193.8+3.067%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -5.7-5.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -5.7-5.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A27/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
W
61-53
61
53
+8
A28/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#3
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H30/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A31/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
47-63
47
63
-16
A03/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#26
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A07/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
L
37-49
37
49
-12
A09/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H11/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
55-54
55
54
+1
H14/01
NBA
103.3Avg total
48.6Scored
54.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.053.5104.5-2.533%-
Last 30 at home (13)53.454.3107.7-0.938%-
Last 30 away (17)49.152.9102.0-3.829%-
Last 10 (10)48.654.7103.3-6.120%-
Last 5 (5)48.652.8101.4-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)50.754.7105.3-4.025%-
vs Similar (16)50.352.4102.8-2.138%-
vs Weaker (2)58.055.0113.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H29/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A30/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
W
58-45
58
45
+13
H02/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
50-31
50
31
+19
A03/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H05/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H07/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A09/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A10/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
54-56
54
56
-2
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A14/01
NBA
95.1Avg total
50.4Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.448.097.4+1.453%-
Last 30 at home (17)50.248.398.5+1.947%-
Last 30 away (13)48.347.796.0+0.662%-
Last 10 (10)50.444.795.1+5.760%-
Last 5 (5)49.446.696.0+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)54.749.7104.3+5.033%-
vs Similar (15)49.150.299.3-1.147%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)48.544.993.4+3.667%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 97.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.8 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.929.4
46.0%
49.0%58.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.47.2
30.8%
35.3%21.6
🏀 Free throws21.816.7
76.6%
75.5%16.7
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 27% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 97.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.029.5
49.2%
49.0%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.37.4
34.7%
35.3%22.2
🏀 Free throws21.515.8
73.5%
75.5%15.8
They take 81.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 26% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Jan 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWLWLLLLLL
Miami Heat
LLLWLWWWLL
#22
League position
#8
-4.7
Net rating
-0.3
101.8
Offensive rating
103.3
106.5
Defensive rating
103.6
46.0%
Effective FG%
49.9%
50.9%
Opp. effective FG%
47.8%
13.8%
Turnover %
14.0%
29.9%
Off. rebound %
22.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
30.8%
3-point %
34.7%
60.4%
Assist %
58.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence101.8 · 103.3Defence106.5 · 103.6Shooting46.0% · 49.9%3-point %30.8% · 34.7%Ball care13.8% · 14.0%Off. rebounds29.9% · 22.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/16HGolden State Warriors112-110
11/01/16HCharlotte Hornets95-92
09/01/16AMemphis Grizzlies84-91
07/01/16AMinnesota Timberwolves78-74
04/01/16HPortland Trail Blazers106-112
03/01/16AGolden State Warriors108-111 OT
31/12/15APortland Trail Blazers103-110
30/12/15HCleveland Cavaliers87-93
28/12/15AOklahoma City Thunder112-122
27/12/15ASan Antonio Spurs86-101
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/16ALos Angeles Clippers90-104
12/01/16AGolden State Warriors103-111
10/01/16AUtah Jazz83-98
09/01/16APhoenix Suns103-95
07/01/16HNew York Knicks90-98
05/01/16HIndiana Pacers103-100 OT
03/01/16AWashington Wizards97-75
02/01/16HDallas Mavericks106-82
30/12/15AMemphis Grizzlies90-99 OT
29/12/15HBrooklyn Nets105-111

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW38%
HomeLLLWW39%
AwayLLLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391821
Win %38%39%38%
Points / game98.699.897.6
Allowed / game102.9104.3101.8
Point differential-4.3-4.5-4.1
Avg total201.6204.2199.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%0%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won73% (11)71% (7)75% (4)
Overtime %5%6%5%
Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL56%
HomeWLWWL65%
AwayWWLLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392316
Win %56%65%44%
Points / game96.999.493.4
Allowed / game95.595.795.1
Point differential+1.5+3.7-1.7
Avg total192.4195.1188.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%30%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)83% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %8%9%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors4037392%114.3102.5+11.9
2 San Antonio Spurs4135685%103.789.8+13.9
3 Cleveland Cavaliers37271073%101.795.6+6.1
4 Oklahoma City Thunder41291271%108.8100.6+8.2
5 Los Angeles Clippers39261367%103.9100.0+3.9
6 Toronto Raptors40251562%100.396.8+3.5
7 Chicago Bulls39231659%101.8100.6+1.2
8 Atlanta Hawks40231757%102.4101.0+1.4
9 Miami Heat39221756%96.995.5+1.5
10 Dallas Mavericks41231856%100.9100.6+0.3
11 Indiana Pacers40221855%102.198.8+3.2
12 Detroit Pistons39211854%101.299.3+1.8
13 Memphis Grizzlies41221954%96.098.8-2.8
14 Boston Celtics40211952%103.099.6+3.4
15 Houston Rockets40211952%104.1105.0-0.9
16 Orlando Magic39201951%99.198.8+0.2
17 Washington Wizards38191950%101.8103.7-1.9
18 New York Knicks41202149%98.999.8-0.9
19 Charlotte Hornets39182146%101.4100.3+1.1
20 Utah Jazz39172244%96.296.9-0.7
21 Portland Trail Blazers42182443%101.6102.6-1.0
22 Sacramento Kings39162341%106.2108.4-2.2
23 Milwaukee Bucks42172540%98.1103.6-5.4
24 Denver Nuggets39152438%98.6102.9-4.3
25 New Orleans Pelicans39132633%101.4105.5-4.1
26 Phoenix Suns41132832%102.5106.6-4.2
27 Minnesota Timberwolves41122929%98.6102.9-4.3
28 Brooklyn Nets40112928%95.8102.8-7.0
29 Los Angeles Lakers4193222%96.7105.8-9.0
30 Philadelphia 76ers4143710%93.3105.2-11.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets3131161795
Miami Heat2026302298
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