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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 14 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 23:30
Scheduled
Position#13
Record4-3
FormLWWLW
Points / game115.4
Allowed / game114.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.8/10
Around normal
3.8/10
Below normal
Position#21
Record3-6
FormWWLWL
Points / game116.0
Allowed / game122.6
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
96-112
96
112
-16
80avg 112
A26/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
125-113
125
113
+12
123avg 112
H28/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
98-110
98
110
-12
90avg 112
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 112
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 112
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 112
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 112
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#23
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 112
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 112
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#14
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 112
H05/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-22
31-28
24-32
18-30
34-29
26-22
37-24
28-38
30-29
20-28
24-25
24-28
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
226.5Avg total
112.7Scored
113.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)115.4114.7230.1+0.757%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (3)105.0102.3207.3+2.767%
Last 10 (10)112.7113.8226.5-1.150%
Last 5 (5)116.6114.4231.0+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)119.8117.0236.8+2.850%
vs Similar (16)117.1114.7231.8+2.462%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)129.3117.8247.1+11.590%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
126-127 OT
126
127
-1
119avg 111
A14/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
106-131
106
131
-25
98avg 111
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#7
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 111
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 111
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 111
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 111
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 111
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 111
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 111
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 111
A06/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-26
30-26
29-37
31-25
32-34
27-35
22-30
25-32
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
240.0Avg total
117.0Scored
123.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)116.0122.6238.6-6.633%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (5)114.6121.2235.8-6.640%
Last 10 (10)117.0123.0240.0-6.030%
Last 5 (5)121.6123.2244.8-1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar (14)121.9123.5245.4-1.643%
vs Weaker (7)129.7121.0250.7+8.771%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: +2.2+2.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: +2.2+2.2
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A26/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H28/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#18
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#23
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#14
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
115.5Avg total
58.3Scored
57.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.058.9118.8+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (18)61.860.3122.1+1.544%-
Last 30 away (12)57.256.8114.0+0.558%-
Last 10 (10)58.357.2115.5+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)62.859.4122.2+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)61.259.0120.2+2.250%-
vs Similar (16)56.657.6114.2-1.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)64.860.8125.6+4.050%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
54-52
54
52
+2
A14/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#7
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
121.1Avg total
59.0Scored
62.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.962.6123.5-1.740%-
Last 30 at home (15)62.362.0124.3+0.353%-
Last 30 away (15)59.563.2122.7-3.727%-
Last 10 (10)59.062.1121.1-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)62.863.2126.0-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar (14)57.962.6120.4-4.736%-
vs Weaker (7)68.160.4128.6+7.771%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 111.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws23.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.128.5
54.7%
54.0%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.110.2
31.8%
35.0%30.6
🏀 Free throws29.223.6
80.8%
76.6%23.6
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.030.6
57.7%
54.0%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.213.8
36.1%
35.0%41.4
🏀 Free throws22.116.2
73.3%
76.6%16.2
They take 91.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWLLWL
Miami Heat
LWLWWLLLLL
#13
League position
#21
-3.3
Net rating
-2.4
107.0
Offensive rating
112.6
110.3
Defensive rating
115.0
52.0%
Effective FG%
56.2%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
57.0%
12.4%
Turnover %
12.5%
14.2%
Off. rebound %
19.3%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.24
31.8%
3-point %
36.1%
66.1%
Assist %
67.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 112.6Defence110.3 · 115.0Shooting52.0% · 56.2%3-point %31.8% · 36.1%Ball care12.4% · 12.5%Off. rebounds14.2% · 19.3%Free throws0.35 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Denver Nuggets wins
2
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
01/05/26AMinnesota Timberwolves98-110
28/04/26HMinnesota Timberwolves125-113
26/04/26AMinnesota Timberwolves96-112
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
21/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves106-131
14/04/26ACharlotte Hornets126-127 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW57%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%50%67%
Points / game115.4123.2105.0
Allowed / game114.7124.0102.3
Point differential+0.7-0.8+2.7
Avg total230.1247.2207.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %14%25%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL33%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %33%25%40%
Points / game116.0117.8114.6
Allowed / game122.6124.2121.2
Point differential-6.6-6.5-6.6
Avg total238.6242.0235.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %11%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers108280%122.0114.3+7.7
2 Philadelphia 76ers108280%109.4106.6+2.8
3 Houston Rockets97278%117.9107.6+10.3
4 Boston Celtics97278%114.8105.1+9.7
5 San Antonio Spurs97278%117.7108.7+9.0
6 Oklahoma City Thunder97278%112.0107.4+4.6
7 Detroit Pistons86275%111.1101.8+9.4
8 Portland Trail Blazers86275%121.4112.4+9.0
9 Minnesota Timberwolves107370%118.4107.7+10.7
10 Memphis Grizzlies96367%117.9111.8+6.1
11 Golden State Warriors96367%117.8113.0+4.8
12 Atlanta Hawks106460%118.1114.9+3.2
13 Denver Nuggets74357%115.4114.7+0.7
14 Toronto Raptors95456%118.2112.8+5.4
15 Cleveland Cavaliers95456%119.2114.7+4.6
16 Dallas Mavericks95456%112.1110.9+1.2
17 New York Knicks84450%110.0105.1+4.9
18 New Orleans Pelicans94544%120.2118.8+1.4
19 Washington Wizards94544%111.4112.3-0.9
20 Indiana Pacers93633%111.2114.2-3.0
21 Miami Heat93633%116.0122.6-6.6
22 Charlotte Hornets103730%96.3110.2-13.9
23 Phoenix Suns72529%113.9121.4-7.6
24 Brooklyn Nets82625%106.6112.9-6.2
25 Orlando Magic82625%105.5115.0-9.5
26 Los Angeles Clippers81712%109.1115.6-6.5
27 Chicago Bulls81712%111.6129.6-18.0
28 Utah Jazz91811%106.9118.2-11.3
29 Milwaukee Bucks91811%109.7122.1-12.4
30 Sacramento Kings91811%109.2123.3-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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