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Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 26 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 03:30
Scheduled
Position#9
Record8-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game119.3
Allowed / game111.5
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Position#13
Record6-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game113.3
USANBA· Chase Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Golden State Warriors v Denver Nuggets
25 Dec 2026
GSW v DEN
upcoming
22 Feb 2026
GSW128
DEN117
23 Oct 2025
GSW137
DEN131
04 Apr 2025
GSW118
DEN104
17 Mar 2025
GSW105
DEN114
25 Feb 2024
GSW103
DEN119
04 Jan 2024
GSW127
DEN130
21 Oct 2022
GSW123
DEN128
27 Apr 2022
GSW102
DEN98
18 Apr 2022
GSW126
DEN106
16 Apr 2022
GSW123
DEN107
16 Feb 2022
GSW116
DEN117
28 Dec 2021
GSW86
DEN89
23 Apr 2021
GSW118
DEN97
12 Apr 2021
GSW116
DEN107
12 Dec 2020
GSW107
DEN105
31 Mar 2020
GSW v DEN
upcoming
16 Jan 2020
GSW131
DEN134
02 Apr 2019
GSW116
DEN102
08 Mar 2019
GSW122
DEN105
08 Jan 2018
GSW124
DEN114
23 Dec 2017
GSW81
DEN96
02 Jan 2017
GSW127
DEN119
02 Jan 2016
GSW111
DEN108
06 Nov 2015
GSW119
DEN104
15 Apr 2015
GSW133
DEN126
19 Jan 2015
GSW122
DEN79
10 Apr 2014
GSW99
DEN100
15 Jan 2014
GSW116
DEN123
02 May 2013
GSW92
DEN88
28 Apr 2013
GSW115
DEN101
26 Apr 2013
GSW110
DEN108
29 Nov 2012
GSW106
DEN105
10 Nov 2012
GSW101
DEN107
07 Apr 2012
GSW112
DEN97
09 Feb 2011
GSW116
DEN114
22 Nov 2010
GSW89
DEN106
25 Feb 2010
GSW112
DEN127
20 Jan 2010
GSW118
DEN123
05 Nov 2008
GSW111
DEN101
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Golden State Warriors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#19
L
122-131
122
131
-9
75avg 105
A25/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#13
W
134-114
134
114
+20
102avg 105
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
W
119-114
119
114
+5
93avg 105
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
W
112-95
112
95
+17
102avg 105
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
124-112
124
112
+12
88avg 105
H02/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
116-113
116
113
+3
92avg 105
H03/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
120-100
120
100
+20
126avg 105
H06/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
126-119 OT
126
119
+7
128avg 105
H08/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
138-87
138
87
+51
144avg 105
H10/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
108-115
108
115
-7
97avg 105
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
29-35
38-45
30-29
28-32
32-24
40-28
34-30
30-23
34-25
29-33
26-33
15-38
38-15
32-27
27-15
29-37
34-20
29-28
32-27
19-31
32-26
42-36
23-20
26-29
27-24
38-23
29-24
31-19
26-22
20-37
33-32
35-20
37-23
40-22
26-22
20-35
31-21
28-29
29-30
231.9Avg total
121.9Scored
110.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)119.3111.5230.8+7.867%
Season at home (7)120.6105.3225.9+15.386%
Season away (5)117.6120.2237.8-2.640%
Last 10 (10)121.9110.0231.9+11.980%
Last 5 (5)121.6106.8228.4+14.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)104.8117.5222.3-12.70%
vs Similar (11)109.8115.6225.5-5.827%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)123.8114.2238.1+9.685%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 111
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 111
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 111
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 111
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 111
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 111
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 111
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 111
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 111
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 111
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
227.8Avg total
114.5Scored
113.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (6)108.7106.2214.8+2.567%
Last 10 (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Last 5 (5)115.0111.4226.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)114.8117.4232.2-2.640%
vs Similar (13)113.9113.0226.9+0.962%
vs Weaker (12)128.2117.0245.2+11.292%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +8.5+8.5Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +0.1+0.1
-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +8.5+8.5Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +0.1+0.1
Golden State WarriorsDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#19
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A25/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#13
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
W
64-48
64
48
+16
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
63-57
63
57
+6
H02/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H03/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H06/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H08/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
72-43
72
43
+29
H10/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A12/11
NBA
109.9Avg total
57.8Scored
52.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.556.0111.5-0.533%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.554.8111.3+1.736%-
Last 30 away (16)54.657.1111.6-2.531%-
Last 10 (10)57.852.1109.9+5.750%-
Last 5 (5)56.850.0106.8+6.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)51.556.0107.5-4.533%-
vs Similar (11)52.656.0108.6-3.49%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)59.756.0115.7+3.754%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
114.9Avg total
58.8Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.457.9118.3+2.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)57.953.7111.6+4.269%-
Last 10 (10)58.856.1114.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)59.854.4114.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)57.255.0112.2+2.260%-
vs Similar (13)58.856.5115.3+2.254%-
vs Weaker (12)63.560.5124.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 118.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.9 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.624.5
56.2%
54.0%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.516.3
40.2%
35.1%48.9
🏀 Free throws25.920.9
80.7%
77.1%20.9
They take 84.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.1%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
77.1%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Golden State Warriors
LWWWWWWWWL
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWWLWL
#9
League position
#13
+6.2
Net rating
-1.6
115.7
Offensive rating
110.1
109.5
Defensive rating
111.6
58.2%
Effective FG%
53.6%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
15.5%
Turnover %
11.1%
21.9%
Off. rebound %
16.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.29
40.2%
3-point %
32.2%
68.6%
Assist %
65.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 110.1Defence109.5 · 111.6Shooting58.2% · 53.6%3-point %40.2% · 32.2%Ball care15.5% · 11.1%Off. rebounds21.9% · 16.8%Free throws0.31 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Golden State Warriors   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AHouston Rockets108-115
10/11/26HNew Orleans Pelicans138-87
08/11/26HOrlando Magic126-119 OT
06/11/26HMiami Heat120-100
03/11/26HPhoenix Suns116-113
02/11/26HLos Angeles Clippers124-112
31/10/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-95
29/10/26AMinnesota Timberwolves119-114
27/10/26ADenver Nuggets134-114
25/10/26APhoenix Suns122-131
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Golden State Warriors
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL67%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayLLWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %67%86%40%
Points / game119.3120.6117.6
Allowed / game111.5105.3120.2
Point differential+7.8+15.3-2.6
Avg total230.8225.9237.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%57%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%14%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.5123.2108.7
Allowed / game113.3124.0106.2
Point differential+1.2-0.8+2.5
Avg total227.8247.2214.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %10%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
8 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Toronto Raptors115645%114.5111.9+2.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
22 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
23 Washington Wizards124833%107.5113.4-5.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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