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Real Madrid vs Valencia Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Final 96-79
20-19 31-24 24-22 21-14
Position#2
Record19-11
FormWWWWW
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game82.8
vs
Position#3
Record20-10
FormWWWWW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game85.9
EuropeEuroleagueRound 31· Movistar Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · Real Madrid v Valencia
14 Mar 2027
MAD v VAL
upcoming
17 Dec 2026
MAD v VAL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MAD96
VAL79
18 Jan 2026
MAD94
VAL79
28 Sep 2025
MAD94
VAL98
22 Jun 2025
MAD102
VAL96
20 Jun 2025
MAD89
VAL75
04 May 2025
MAD96
VAL89
17 Feb 2024
MAD95
VAL76
11 Jan 2024
MAD96
VAL86
31 Dec 2023
MAD83
VAL74
09 Mar 2023
MAD95
VAL91
16 Feb 2023
MAD86
VAL85
04 Dec 2022
MAD79
VAL62
06 Feb 2022
MAD93
VAL94
10 Jun 2021
MAD80
VAL77
06 Jun 2021
MAD81
VAL70
09 May 2021
MAD69
VAL79
11 Feb 2021
MAD85
VAL74
08 Oct 2020
MAD77
VAL93
15 Feb 2020
MAD91
VAL68
21 May 2019
MAD v VAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2018
MAD83
VAL71
19 Dec 2017
MAD91
VAL72
11 Jun 2017
MAD79
VAL86
09 Jun 2017
MAD87
VAL81
19 Feb 2017
MAD97
VAL95
22 Jan 2017
MAD85
VAL71
04 Jun 2016
MAD97
VAL88
02 Jun 2016
MAD82
VAL57
11 Oct 2015
MAD82
VAL88
07 Jun 2015
MAD89
VAL93
04 Jun 2015
MAD81
VAL71
02 Nov 2014
MAD90
VAL71
26 Sep 2014
MAD89
VAL76
27 Apr 2014
MAD105
VAL110
20 Dec 2012
MAD87
VAL84
04 Dec 2011
MAD81
VAL64
07 Apr 2011
MAD66
VAL58
24 Mar 2011
MAD75
VAL81
22 Mar 2011
MAD71
VAL65
12 Feb 2011
MAD69
VAL59
23 Oct 2010
MAD75
VAL63
05 Dec 2009
MAD77
VAL66
22 Mar 2009
MAD80
VAL76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Paris
#16
L
92-98
92
98
-6
91avg 83
A27/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
99-78
99
78
+21
78avg 83
H01/02
ACB
Panathinaikos
#7
L
81-82
81
82
-1
79avg 83
A03/02
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
L
85-93
85
93
-8
76avg 83
A05/02
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
94-79
94
79
+15
93avg 83
H08/02
ACB
Partizan
#15
W
77-73
77
73
+4
75avg 83
A13/02
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
W
96-92
96
92
+4
94avg 83
A15/02
ACB
Bayern
#14
W
93-70
93
70
+23
100avg 83
H26/02
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#17
W
92-84
92
84
+8
87avg 83
H05/03
Euroleague
Gran Canaria
#15
W
82-80
82
80
+2
76avg 83
A08/03
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-24
24-26
24-25
26-23
21-22
24-19
20-14
34-23
26-16
18-20
17-24
20-22
19-11
25-26
24-32
17-24
24-19
16-17
30-18
24-25
20-19
23-14
19-28
15-12
20-25
19-31
34-25
23-11
19-12
34-21
25-14
15-23
22-23
24-17
18-21
28-23
20-25
26-13
16-18
20-24
172.0Avg total
89.1Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)87.582.8170.4+4.763%
Season at home (15)92.280.3172.5+11.993%
Season away (15)82.985.3168.2-2.533%
Last 10 (10)89.182.9172.0+6.270%
Last 5 (5)88.079.8167.8+8.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.079.0173.0+15.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (5)91.489.0180.4+2.440%
vs Weaker (24)91.281.4172.5+9.888%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#12
W
94-83
94
83
+11
90avg 88
H29/01
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#14
W
101-65
101
65
+36
90avg 88
H01/02
ACB
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
90-107
90
107
-17
84avg 88
A03/02
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
104-99 OT
104
99
+5
97avg 88
A05/02
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#6
L
87-90
87
90
-3
79avg 88
A08/02
ACB
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#20
W
82-67
82
67
+15
73avg 88
H12/02
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
W
107-75
107
75
+32
100avg 88
A15/02
ACB
Baskonia
#18
W
108-79
108
79
+29
110avg 88
A26/02
Euroleague
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
91-87
91
87
+4
87avg 88
H05/03
Euroleague
Murcia
#4
W
110-84
110
84
+26
113avg 88
H08/03
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
23-23
22-18
28-15
25-15
27-17
19-19
30-14
14-33
32-24
18-27
26-23
24-21
12-28
25-24
27-15
18-24
27-23
22-25
20-18
22-17
22-16
19-12
19-22
25-23
32-16
26-14
24-22
35-16
33-19
25-23
15-21
25-13
25-26
21-25
20-23
30-19
25-20
35-23
20-22
181.0Avg total
97.4Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)91.085.9177.0+5.167%
Season at home (15)90.281.5171.7+8.787%
Season away (15)91.990.4182.3+1.547%
Last 10 (10)97.483.6181.0+13.880%
Last 5 (5)99.678.4178.0+21.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)94.389.9184.1+4.471%
vs Weaker (23)93.381.7175.0+11.770%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +2.2+2.2Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +3.4+3.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: +2.2+2.2Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +3.4+3.4
Real MadridValencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#16
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A27/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H01/02
ACB
Panathinaikos
#7
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A03/02
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A05/02
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H08/02
ACB
Partizan
#15
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A13/02
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
L
39-56
39
56
-17
A15/02
ACB
Bayern
#14
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H26/02
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#17
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H05/03
Euroleague
Gran Canaria
#15
W
46-38
46
38
+8
A08/03
ACB
84.2Avg total
44.2Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.241.685.8+2.657%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.342.489.7+4.967%-
Last 30 away (15)41.140.981.9+0.247%-
Last 10 (10)44.240.084.2+4.280%-
Last 5 (5)45.440.085.4+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.043.086.0+0.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)45.238.884.0+6.460%-
vs Weaker (24)44.042.286.2+1.958%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#12
L
44-50
44
50
-6
H29/01
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#14
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H01/02
ACB
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
46-57
46
57
-11
A03/02
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A05/02
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#6
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A08/02
ACB
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#20
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H12/02
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
W
57-39
57
39
+18
A15/02
ACB
Baskonia
#18
W
68-35
68
35
+33
A26/02
Euroleague
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H05/03
Euroleague
Murcia
#4
W
55-39
55
39
+16
H08/03
ACB
91.7Avg total
49.7Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.742.688.3+3.053%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.141.688.7+5.671%-
Last 30 away (16)44.443.687.9+0.838%-
Last 10 (10)49.742.091.7+7.760%-
Last 5 (5)54.837.091.8+17.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)43.344.988.1-1.643%-
vs Weaker (23)46.442.088.3+4.457%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.518.3
64.2%
60.4%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.511.1
37.6%
35.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws18.913.8
73.0%
78.2%13.8
They take 58.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 92.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.021.8
62.3%
60.4%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.712.1
40.7%
35.9%36.3
🏀 Free throws19.512.9
66.2%
78.2%12.9
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWWWWWLLWL
Valencia
WWWWWLWLWW
#2
League position
#3
+4.3
Net rating
+13.7
97.1
Offensive rating
104.2
92.8
Defensive rating
90.5
60.3%
Effective FG%
61.7%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
16.9%
Turnover %
12.5%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.30
37.6%
3-point %
40.7%
67.3%
Assist %
62.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence97.1 · 104.2Defence92.8 · 90.5Shooting60.3% · 61.7%3-point %37.6% · 40.7%Ball care16.9% · 12.5%Free throws0.33 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Valencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Real Madrid wins
4
Valencia wins
DateGameScore
18/01/26Real Madrid v Valencia94-79
11/11/25Valencia v Real Madrid89-76
28/09/25Real Madrid v Valencia94-98
25/06/25Valencia v Real Madrid70-81
22/06/25Real Madrid v Valencia102-96 OT
20/06/25Real Madrid v Valencia89-75
04/05/25Real Madrid v Valencia96-89
22/12/24Valencia v Real Madrid85-84
10/05/24Valencia v Real Madrid99-93
17/02/24Real Madrid v Valencia95-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26AGran Canaria82-80
05/03/26HVirtus Bologna92-84
26/02/26HBayern93-70
15/02/26AUnicaja96-92
13/02/26APartizan77-73
08/02/26HGranada94-79
05/02/26ADubai85-93
03/02/26APanathinaikos81-82
01/02/26HBasket Zaragoza99-78
27/01/26AParis92-98
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HMurcia110-84
05/03/26HZalgiris Kaunas91-87
26/02/26ABaskonia108-79
15/02/26AMoraBanc Andorra107-75
12/02/26HLyon-Villeurbanne82-67
08/02/26AJoventut Badalona87-90
05/02/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv104-99 OT
03/02/26AAnadolu Efes90-107
01/02/26HForca Lleida101-65
29/01/26HMaccabi Tel Aviv94-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW63%
HomeWWWWW93%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %63%93%33%
Points / game87.592.282.9
Allowed / game82.880.385.3
Point differential+4.7+11.9-2.5
Avg total170.4172.5168.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%60%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)100% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Valencia
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW67%
HomeLWWWW87%
AwayLLLWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %67%87%47%
Points / game91.090.291.9
Allowed / game85.981.590.4
Point differential+5.1+8.7+1.5
Avg total177.0171.7182.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%60%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)100% (3)43% (7)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Fenerbahce2922776%82.778.9+3.8
2 Valencia30201067%91.085.9+5.1
3 Olympiacos31201165%90.184.1+6.0
4 Real Madrid30191163%87.582.8+4.7
5 Hapoel Tel-Aviv28171161%86.583.4+3.1
6 Zalgiris Kaunas30171357%89.083.8+5.1
7 Crvena zvezda30171357%87.185.5+1.7
8 Barcelona30171357%86.084.9+1.0
9 Monaco31171455%89.886.1+3.7
10 Panathinaikos30161453%85.584.3+1.1
11 Dubai30161453%88.487.8+0.6
12 Olimpia Milano30151550%85.486.2-0.8
13 Maccabi Tel Aviv29141548%89.691.7-2.2
14 Virtus Bologna31131842%81.584.6-3.1
15 Bayern31131842%80.683.8-3.2
16 Paris30111937%89.791.9-2.3
17 Partizan30102033%80.387.6-7.4
18 Anadolu Efes31102132%80.584.1-3.6
19 Baskonia3192229%87.192.7-5.6
20 Lyon-Villeurbanne3082227%78.986.3-7.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Real Madrid2031242196
Valencia1924221479
← all games of the day
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