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Real Madrid vs Valencia Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 11 Feb 2021
Tip-off: 20:30
Final 85-74
29-17 20-17 14-21 22-19
Position#2
Record-
FormWWWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position#8
Record-
FormLLWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
SpainSpanish CupSpanish Cup - Quarter-finals
Other2021
Meetings · Real Madrid v Valencia
14 Mar 2027
MAD v VAL
upcoming
17 Dec 2026
MAD v VAL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MAD96
VAL79
18 Jan 2026
MAD94
VAL79
28 Sep 2025
MAD94
VAL98
22 Jun 2025
MAD102
VAL96
20 Jun 2025
MAD89
VAL75
04 May 2025
MAD96
VAL89
17 Feb 2024
MAD95
VAL76
11 Jan 2024
MAD96
VAL86
31 Dec 2023
MAD83
VAL74
09 Mar 2023
MAD95
VAL91
16 Feb 2023
MAD86
VAL85
04 Dec 2022
MAD79
VAL62
06 Feb 2022
MAD93
VAL94
10 Jun 2021
MAD80
VAL77
06 Jun 2021
MAD81
VAL70
09 May 2021
MAD69
VAL79
11 Feb 2021
MAD85
VAL74
08 Oct 2020
MAD77
VAL93
15 Feb 2020
MAD91
VAL68
21 May 2019
MAD v VAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2018
MAD83
VAL71
19 Dec 2017
MAD91
VAL72
11 Jun 2017
MAD79
VAL86
09 Jun 2017
MAD87
VAL81
19 Feb 2017
MAD97
VAL95
22 Jan 2017
MAD85
VAL71
04 Jun 2016
MAD97
VAL88
02 Jun 2016
MAD82
VAL57
11 Oct 2015
MAD82
VAL88
07 Jun 2015
MAD89
VAL93
04 Jun 2015
MAD81
VAL71
02 Nov 2014
MAD90
VAL71
26 Sep 2014
MAD89
VAL76
27 Apr 2014
MAD105
VAL110
20 Dec 2012
MAD87
VAL84
04 Dec 2011
MAD81
VAL64
07 Apr 2011
MAD66
VAL58
24 Mar 2011
MAD75
VAL81
22 Mar 2011
MAD71
VAL65
12 Feb 2011
MAD69
VAL59
23 Oct 2010
MAD75
VAL63
05 Dec 2009
MAD77
VAL66
22 Mar 2009
MAD80
VAL76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Bayern
#5
W
81-76 OT
81
76
+5
no box
A15/01
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#17
L
77-79
77
79
-2
70avg 79
H18/01
Euroleague
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#13
L
84-86
84
86
-2
82avg 79
A21/01
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#10
W
86-79
86
79
+7
no box
H24/01
ACB
Panathinaikos
#16
W
76-66
76
66
+10
78avg 79
H27/01
Euroleague
Alba Berlin
#15
W
72-63
72
63
+9
73avg 79
A29/01
Euroleague
Gran Canaria
#8
W
81-80
81
80
+1
72avg 79
H31/01
ACB
Murcia
#12
W
98-87
98
87
+11
89avg 79
H02/02
ACB
Baskonia
#10
L
64-84
64
84
-20
56avg 79
H05/02
Euroleague
Estudiantes
#18
W
79-65
79
65
+14
69avg 79
A07/02
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-15
16-19
12-16
21-22
21-23
19-22
18-21
19-13
33-24
13-21
20-18
18-23
24-12
27-26
13-18
22-23
25-12
24-15
15-23
12-16
22-14
18-16
19-17
13-16
16-15
25-20
22-22
18-23
24-32
23-19
26-9
25-27
15-28
19-9
18-23
12-24
22-12
13-23
19-16
25-14
156.3Avg total
79.8Scored
76.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.876.5156.3+3.370%
Last 5 (5)78.875.8154.6+3.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)77.576.0153.5+1.550%
vs Similar (11)81.978.7160.6+3.264%
vs Weaker (17)84.274.5158.8+9.794%
ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
80-95
80
95
-15
77avg 80
A12/01
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#17
W
91-71
91
71
+20
90avg 80
H15/01
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#6
W
83-78
83
78
+5
78avg 80
A17/01
ACB
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#14
L
77-90
77
90
-13
76avg 80
A21/01
Euroleague
Baskonia
#5
W
83-61
83
61
+22
81avg 80
H24/01
ACB
Zalgiris Kaunas
#11
L
78-79
78
79
-1
72avg 80
H27/01
Euroleague
Panathinaikos
#16
L
72-91
72
91
-19
63avg 80
A29/01
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
W
89-85
89
85
+4
79avg 80
A31/01
ACB
CSKA Moscow
#1
W
105-103 OT
105
103
+2
no box
H04/02
Euroleague
Real Betis
#16
W
89-81
89
81
+8
no box
H06/02
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
16-33
24-22
20-19
27-15
22-27
19-15
23-14
23-18
17-17
22-25
21-18
17-17
17-23
20-21
23-29
14-18
21-13
23-12
25-18
20-20
18-27
17-13
23-19
20-22
14-26
18-20
20-23
18-21
16-13
27-24
28-27
25-17
22-26
17-20
20-21
12-22
26-15
30-22
21-22
168.1Avg total
84.7Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.783.4168.1+1.360%
Last 5 (5)86.687.8174.4-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)88.289.0177.2-0.875%
vs Similar (10)82.381.5163.8+0.850%
vs Weaker (16)88.080.8168.8+7.275%

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +1.4+1.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +1.4+1.4
Real MadridValencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bayern
#5
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A15/01
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#17
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H18/01
Euroleague
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#13
W
46-45
46
45
+1
A21/01
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#10
W
51-38
51
38
+13
H24/01
ACB
Panathinaikos
#16
W
49-27
49
27
+22
H27/01
Euroleague
Alba Berlin
#15
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A29/01
Euroleague
Gran Canaria
#8
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H31/01
ACB
Murcia
#12
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H02/02
ACB
Baskonia
#10
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H05/02
Euroleague
Estudiantes
#18
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A07/02
ACB
79.9Avg total
42.2Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.437.778.0+2.757%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.338.480.7+3.953%-
Last 30 away (13)37.836.774.5+1.262%-
Last 10 (10)42.237.779.9+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)39.437.677.0+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)38.541.580.0-3.00%-
vs Similar (11)40.838.078.8+2.864%-
vs Weaker (17)40.337.077.3+3.359%-
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
36-54
36
54
-18
A12/01
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#17
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H15/01
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#6
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A17/01
ACB
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#14
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A21/01
Euroleague
Baskonia
#5
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H24/01
ACB
Zalgiris Kaunas
#11
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H27/01
Euroleague
Panathinaikos
#16
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A29/01
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A31/01
ACB
CSKA Moscow
#1
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H04/02
Euroleague
Real Betis
#16
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H06/02
ACB
79.6Avg total
38.5Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.840.181.8+1.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.539.884.3+4.773%-
Last 30 away (15)39.040.379.3-1.333%-
Last 10 (10)38.541.179.6-2.650%-
Last 5 (5)38.241.880.0-3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)42.842.585.2+0.250%-
vs Similar (10)40.140.080.1+0.160%-
vs Weaker (16)42.639.582.1+3.150%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 78.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.618.2
52.6%
-36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.7
37.7%
-29.1
🏀 Free throws16.813.2
78.6%
-13.2
They take 60.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 83.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.018.5
57.8%
-37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.810.1
39.1%
-30.3
🏀 Free throws20.316.5
81.3%
-16.5
They take 57.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Feb 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WLWWWWWLLW
Valencia
WWWLLWLWWL
#2
League position
#8
+4.6
Net rating
+5.6
112.8
Offensive rating
116.7
108.2
Defensive rating
111.1
54.3%
Effective FG%
58.2%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
16.6%
Turnover %
18.5%
29.4%
Off. rebound %
28.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.35
37.7%
3-point %
39.1%
57.3%
Assist %
68.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Valencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Real Madrid wins
4
Valencia wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/21AEstudiantes79-65
05/02/21HBaskonia64-84
02/02/21HMurcia98-87
31/01/21HGran Canaria81-80
29/01/21AAlba Berlin72-63
27/01/21HPanathinaikos76-66
24/01/21HMoraBanc Andorra86-79
21/01/21AMaccabi Tel Aviv84-86
18/01/21HCrvena zvezda77-79
15/01/21ABayern81-76 OT
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/02/21HReal Betis89-81
04/02/21HCSKA Moscow105-103 OT
31/01/21AUnicaja89-85
29/01/21APanathinaikos72-91
27/01/21HZalgiris Kaunas78-79
24/01/21HBaskonia83-61
21/01/21ALyon-Villeurbanne77-90
17/01/21ASan Pablo Burgos83-78
15/01/21HCrvena zvezda91-71
12/01/21AOlimpia Milano80-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Spanish Cup 2021
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Valencia
Spanish Cup 2021
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tenerife110100%87.076.0+11.0
2 San Pablo Burgos1010%76.087.0-11.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Real Madrid2920142285
Valencia1717211974
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