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Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 01 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 103-106
23-32 31-31 25-22 24-21
Position#11
Record20-13
FormLWLWW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game112.6
vs
Position#6
Record22-10
FormWLWLL
Points / game125.7
Allowed / game118.5
USANBA· Scotiabank Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Denver Nuggets
29 Nov 2026
TOR v DEN
upcoming
31 Dec 2025
TOR103
DEN106
28 Oct 2024
TOR125
DEN127
20 Dec 2023
TOR104
DEN113
14 Mar 2023
TOR125
DEN110
12 Feb 2022
TOR109
DEN110
24 Mar 2021
TOR135
DEN111
14 Aug 2020
TOR117
DEN109
03 Dec 2018
TOR103
DEN106
27 Mar 2018
TOR114
DEN110
31 Oct 2016
TOR105
DEN102
03 Dec 2015
TOR105
DEN106
08 Dec 2014
TOR112
DEN107
01 Dec 2013
TOR98
DEN112
12 Feb 2013
TOR109
DEN108
28 Mar 2012
TOR105
DEN96
10 Dec 2010
TOR116
DEN123
26 Mar 2010
TOR96
DEN97
31 Dec 2008
TOR107
DEN114
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
86-111
86
111
-25
67avg 106
H06/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
113-121
113
121
-8
104avg 106
H07/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
106-96
106
96
+10
106avg 106
A16/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
111-105
111
105
+6
110avg 106
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
96-112
96
112
-16
88avg 106
H21/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
81-96
81
96
-15
69avg 106
A21/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
112-91
112
91
+21
113avg 106
A24/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
117-138
117
138
-21
103avg 106
A27/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
141-127 OT
141
127
+14
141avg 106
H28/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
107-106
107
106
+1
94avg 106
H30/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-18
18-35
28-25
16-33
26-34
33-43
32-20
22-24
23-22
23-30
28-25
32-19
31-25
26-28
26-23
28-29
20-32
31-17
29-34
16-29
18-24
21-25
26-18
16-29
21-16
30-28
31-23
30-24
32-35
30-38
38-29
17-36
33-29
32-35
31-36
26-22
18-29
36-36
30-29
23-12
217.3Avg total
107.0Scored
110.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)114.5112.6227.1+2.061%
Season at home (16)115.1112.8227.9+2.462%
Season away (17)114.0112.4226.4+1.659%
Last 10 (10)107.0110.3217.3-3.350%
Last 5 (5)111.6111.6223.2+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)101.5117.5219.0-16.00%
vs Similar ◀ (16)114.6111.8226.4+2.869%
vs Weaker (10)115.8107.7223.5+8.180%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
115-106
115
106
+9
110avg 115
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
136-105
136
105
+31
139avg 115
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
128-125 OT
128
125
+3
119avg 115
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
126-115
126
115
+11
124avg 115
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
101-115
101
115
-14
84avg 115
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
135-112
135
112
+23
139avg 115
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
130-131
130
131
-1
133avg 115
A24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
142-138 OT
142
138
+4
133avg 115
H26/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
126-127
126
127
-1
126avg 115
A28/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
123-147
123
147
-24
116avg 115
A30/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-34
23-24
30-23
28-25
41-26
36-28
32-27
27-24
24-30
34-21
31-35
28-31
25-32
43-22
31-31
27-30
29-26
16-27
21-29
35-33
40-15
29-31
34-38
32-28
27-41
29-25
47-37
27-28
32-29
25-26
35-23
23-37
31-23
31-25
31-36
33-43
29-41
34-22
36-47
24-37
248.3Avg total
126.2Scored
122.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)125.7118.5244.2+7.269%
Season at home (15)126.1118.1244.3+8.067%
Season away (17)125.4118.8244.1+6.671%
Last 10 (10)126.2122.1248.3+4.160%
Last 5 (5)131.2131.0262.2+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)124.8121.4246.2+3.577%
vs Weaker (17)125.6115.6241.2+10.165%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: -3.2-3.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: -3.2-3.2
Toronto RaptorsDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H06/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
59-77
59
77
-18
H07/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A16/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H21/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A21/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A24/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
62-73
62
73
-11
A27/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
65-64
65
64
+1
H28/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
54-65
54
65
-11
H30/12
NBA
110.5Avg total
52.6Scored
57.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.056.5112.5-0.557%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.957.7115.6+0.367%-
Last 30 away (15)54.155.3109.5-1.247%-
Last 10 (10)52.657.9110.5-5.340%-
Last 5 (5)54.259.0113.2-4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)53.063.5116.5-10.525%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)55.756.6112.3-0.950%-
vs Weaker (10)57.853.5111.3+4.380%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-54
77
54
+23
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
58-51
58
51
+7
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
68-54
68
54
+14
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
45-53
45
53
-8
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
69-46
69
46
+23
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
56-66
56
66
-10
A24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H26/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
62-48
62
48
+14
A28/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
D
63-63
63
63
+0
A30/12
NBA
116.0Avg total
61.2Scored
54.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.657.0118.6+4.667%-
Last 30 at home (14)63.155.5118.6+7.686%-
Last 30 away (16)60.458.3118.7+2.150%-
Last 10 (10)61.254.8116.0+6.460%-
Last 5 (5)61.455.6117.0+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)58.559.5118.0-1.138%-
vs Weaker (17)64.155.1119.1+9.088%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 107.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.228.5
51.6%
54.8%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.912.0
33.4%
35.8%36.0
🏀 Free throws17.514.0
80.0%
78.1%14.0
They take 91.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 126.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.7 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.730.9
57.5%
54.8%61.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.314.9
42.2%
35.8%44.7
🏀 Free throws24.119.7
81.7%
78.1%19.7
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
WWLWLLWWLL
Denver Nuggets
LLWLWLWWWW
#11
League position
#6
-3.3
Net rating
+4.0
106.7
Offensive rating
121.9
109.9
Defensive rating
117.9
51.0%
Effective FG%
59.8%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
56.7%
14.0%
Turnover %
12.0%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
20.7%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.27
33.4%
3-point %
42.2%
67.9%
Assist %
66.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence106.7 · 121.9Defence109.9 · 117.9Shooting51.0% · 59.8%3-point %33.4% · 42.2%Ball care14.0% · 12.0%Off. rebounds26.7% · 20.7%Free throws0.19 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Toronto Raptors wins
7
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/25HOrlando Magic107-106
28/12/25HGolden State Warriors141-127 OT
27/12/25AWashington Wizards117-138
24/12/25AMiami Heat112-91
21/12/25ABrooklyn Nets81-96
21/12/25HBoston Celtics96-112
19/12/25AMilwaukee Bucks111-105
16/12/25AMiami Heat106-96
07/12/25HBoston Celtics113-121
06/12/25HCharlotte Hornets86-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/25AMiami Heat123-147
28/12/25AOrlando Magic126-127
26/12/25HMinnesota Timberwolves142-138 OT
24/12/25ADallas Mavericks130-131
23/12/25HUtah Jazz135-112
20/12/25HHouston Rockets101-115
19/12/25HOrlando Magic126-115
16/12/25HHouston Rockets128-125 OT
12/12/25ASacramento Kings136-105
07/12/25ACharlotte Hornets115-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW61%
HomeLLLWW62%
AwayWWLWL59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331617
Win %61%62%59%
Points / game114.5115.1114.0
Allowed / game112.6112.8112.4
Point differential+2.0+2.4+1.6
Avg total227.1227.9226.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%38%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)80% (5)-
Overtime %6%6%6%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL69%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayWWLLL71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321517
Win %69%67%71%
Points / game125.7126.1125.4
Allowed / game118.5118.1118.8
Point differential+7.2+8.0+6.6
Avg total244.2244.3244.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%47%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)40% (5)40% (5)
Overtime %9%13%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3127487%122.0108.4+13.6
2 Detroit Pistons3325876%119.1112.7+6.5
3 San Antonio Spurs3122971%119.8114.2+5.6
4 Denver Nuggets32221069%125.7118.5+7.2
5 New York Knicks31211068%120.9114.9+6.0
6 Houston Rockets30201067%120.5112.0+8.6
7 Los Angeles Lakers30201067%116.8116.8+0.0
8 Boston Celtics32201262%116.9110.8+6.2
9 Minnesota Timberwolves34211362%118.8114.6+4.2
10 Toronto Raptors33201361%114.5112.6+2.0
11 Phoenix Suns32191359%115.9113.0+2.9
12 Miami Heat32181456%121.4117.6+3.8
13 Orlando Magic32181456%116.5114.6+1.9
14 Philadelphia 76ers31171455%116.4116.3+0.1
15 Cleveland Cavaliers35191654%119.6117.1+2.5
16 Golden State Warriors34181653%115.6113.4+2.1
17 Chicago Bulls33161748%118.8122.3-3.5
18 Atlanta Hawks35161946%119.3120.1-0.9
19 Memphis Grizzlies33151845%115.9116.5-0.7
20 Milwaukee Bucks33141942%113.0115.9-2.9
21 Portland Trail Blazers33141942%116.8120.1-3.3
22 Utah Jazz32122038%120.4127.1-6.7
23 Dallas Mavericks34122235%113.7117.7-4.0
24 Los Angeles Clippers32112134%112.1114.0-1.9
25 Charlotte Hornets33112233%115.8118.9-3.2
26 Brooklyn Nets30102033%109.7113.9-4.2
27 Sacramento Kings3382524%111.0122.3-11.3
28 New Orleans Pelicans3582723%115.6123.1-7.5
29 Washington Wizards3172423%113.2125.0-11.9
30 Indiana Pacers3462818%110.1119.1-9.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Toronto Raptors23312524103
Denver Nuggets32312221106
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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