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Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 04 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 03:00
Scheduled
Position#15
Record5-4
FormWLWWL
Points / game113.6
Allowed / game112.8
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#3
Record9-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game118.7
Allowed / game107.0
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v San Antonio Spurs
03 Mar 2027
DEN v SAS
upcoming
04 Apr 2026
DEN136
SAS134
28 Nov 2025
DEN136
SAS139
02 Apr 2025
DEN106
SAS113
03 Jan 2025
DEN110
SAS113
02 Apr 2024
DEN110
SAS105
26 Nov 2023
DEN132
SAS120
05 Nov 2022
DEN126
SAS101
05 Apr 2022
DEN97
SAS116
22 Oct 2021
DEN102
SAS96
09 Apr 2021
DEN121
SAS119
07 Apr 2021
DEN106
SAS96
27 Mar 2020
DEN v SAS
upcoming
10 Feb 2020
DEN127
SAS120
27 Apr 2019
DEN90
SAS86
23 Apr 2019
DEN108
SAS90
16 Apr 2019
DEN114
SAS105
13 Apr 2019
DEN96
SAS101
03 Apr 2019
DEN113
SAS85
28 Dec 2018
DEN102
SAS99
23 Feb 2018
DEN122
SAS119
13 Feb 2018
DEN117
SAS109
05 Jan 2017
DEN99
SAS127
08 Apr 2016
DEN102
SAS98
27 Nov 2015
DEN80
SAS91
20 Jan 2015
DEN99
SAS109
14 Dec 2014
DEN91
SAS99
28 Mar 2014
DEN102
SAS133
05 Nov 2013
DEN94
SAS102
10 Apr 2013
DEN96
SAS86
18 Dec 2012
DEN112
SAS106
23 Feb 2012
DEN99
SAS114
23 Mar 2011
DEN115
SAS112
16 Dec 2010
DEN112
SAS113
10 Apr 2010
DEN85
SAS104
11 Feb 2010
DEN92
SAS111
03 Feb 2009
DEN104
SAS96
04 Dec 2008
DEN91
SAS108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
San Antonio Spurs win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
98-110
98
110
-12
90avg 112
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 112
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 112
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 112
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 112
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 112
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 112
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 112
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 112
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 112
A10/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-29
20-28
24-25
24-28
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
224.5Avg total
112.0Scored
112.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)113.6112.8226.3+0.856%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (5)105.8103.8209.6+2.060%
Last 10 (10)112.0112.5224.5-0.550%
Last 5 (5)115.8111.8227.6+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)107.0113.0220.0-6.020%
vs Similar (12)117.3116.5233.8+0.858%
vs Weaker (13)127.1115.8242.9+11.292%
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Antonio SpursUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpurs
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#7
L
110-114
110
114
-4
97avg 111
H24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
122-106
122
106
+16
109avg 111
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
130-103
130
103
+27
127avg 111
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
117-111 OT
117
111
+6
109avg 111
A29/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#5
W
121-111
121
111
+10
116avg 111
H01/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
119-97
119
97
+22
108avg 111
H03/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
112-111
112
111
+1
102avg 111
H05/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
124-109
124
109
+15
123avg 111
A07/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
W
125-103
125
103
+22
122avg 111
A08/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
122-96
122
96
+26
124avg 111
A10/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-32
32-29
22-24
29-29
32-31
36-29
24-29
30-17
39-29
41-25
27-26
23-23
22-32
29-23
34-30
20-20
34-28
26-33
33-27
28-23
27-16
32-33
35-20
25-28
32-26
36-25
22-29
22-31
38-29
37-27
24-24
25-29
22-20
42-29
45-27
16-27
31-25
30-21
32-22
29-28
226.3Avg total
120.2Scored
106.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)118.7107.0225.7+11.782%
Season at home (6)116.0108.7224.7+7.367%
Season away (5)122.0105.0227.0+17.0100%
Last 10 (10)120.2106.1226.3+14.190%
Last 5 (5)120.4103.2223.6+17.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (14)109.3107.9217.1+1.443%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)119.6104.6224.2+14.981%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: +6.7+6.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.8-0.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: +6.7+6.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +4.0+4.0Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.8-0.8
Denver NuggetsSan Antonio Spurs
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
113.9Avg total
57.3Scored
56.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.958.2118.1+1.750%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)56.854.4111.2+2.462%-
Last 10 (10)57.356.6113.9+0.750%-
Last 5 (5)61.057.4118.4+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)53.853.4107.2+0.460%-
vs Similar (12)58.559.2117.8-0.842%-
vs Weaker (13)63.559.0122.5+4.554%-
This opponent (San Antonio Spurs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Antonio SpursLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#7
L
59-61
59
61
-2
H24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
68-60
68
60
+8
A25/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
80-54
80
54
+26
H28/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
L
51-55
51
55
-4
A29/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#5
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H01/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H03/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
W
68-51
68
51
+17
H05/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
75-56
75
56
+19
A07/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
W
64-49
64
49
+15
A08/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
61-46
61
46
+15
A10/11
NBA
118.7Avg total
64.5Scored
54.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.652.7111.3+5.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.850.2106.9+6.662%-
Last 30 away (14)60.655.6116.3+5.057%-
Last 10 (10)64.554.2118.7+10.370%-
Last 5 (5)65.450.2115.6+15.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (14)55.653.8109.4+1.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)61.251.8113.0+9.469%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 109.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.029.7
55.0%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.89.5
30.8%
35.0%28.5
🏀 Free throws27.321.7
79.5%
76.8%21.7
They take 84.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
San Antonio Spurstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Antonio Spurs: 112.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.527.4
51.2%
54.0%54.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.512.2
32.5%
35.0%36.6
🏀 Free throws25.720.8
80.9%
76.8%20.8
They take 91.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWWLWWLWLL
San Antonio Spurs
WWWWWWWWWL
#15
League position
#3
-3.7
Net rating
+3.7
107.0
Offensive rating
108.7
110.7
Defensive rating
105.0
51.8%
Effective FG%
50.2%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.5%
11.7%
Turnover %
11.9%
15.0%
Off. rebound %
26.4%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.28
30.8%
3-point %
32.5%
63.8%
Assist %
62.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 108.7Defence110.7 · 105.0Shooting51.8% · 50.2%3-point %30.8% · 32.5%Ball care11.7% · 11.9%Off. rebounds15.0% · 26.4%Free throws0.32 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ San Antonio Spurs
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
San Antonio Spurs wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
01/05/26AMinnesota Timberwolves98-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26APhoenix Suns122-96
08/11/26APortland Trail Blazers125-103
07/11/26ASacramento Kings124-109
05/11/26HDallas Mavericks112-111
03/11/26HUtah Jazz119-97
01/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves121-111
29/10/26AUtah Jazz117-111 OT
28/10/26HSacramento Kings130-103
25/10/26ADallas Mavericks122-106
24/10/26HHouston Rockets110-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL56%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLWWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %56%50%60%
Points / game113.6123.2105.8
Allowed / game112.8124.0103.8
Point differential+0.8-0.8+2.0
Avg total226.3247.2209.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%25%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %11%25%0%
San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW82%
HomeLWWWW67%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %82%67%100%
Points / game118.7116.0122.0
Allowed / game107.0108.7105.0
Point differential+11.7+7.3+17.0
Avg total225.7224.7227.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%50%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %9%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1210283%122.1114.4+7.7
2 Boston Celtics119282%115.7104.0+11.7
3 San Antonio Spurs119282%118.7107.0+11.7
4 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
5 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
6 Golden State Warriors118373%120.4111.2+9.2
7 Houston Rockets118373%115.5106.4+9.1
8 Oklahoma City Thunder118373%111.4105.9+5.5
9 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
10 Memphis Grizzlies107370%117.9110.8+7.1
11 Portland Trail Blazers107370%119.7112.7+7.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 New York Knicks106460%110.6102.3+8.3
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 Denver Nuggets95456%113.6112.8+0.8
16 Toronto Raptors105550%116.6113.3+3.3
17 Cleveland Cavaliers115645%116.5115.0+1.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 New Orleans Pelicans114736%117.5122.4-4.9
21 Washington Wizards114736%108.1113.4-5.3
22 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
23 Orlando Magic103730%107.0114.6-7.6
24 Indiana Pacers113827%111.4115.2-3.8
25 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
26 Brooklyn Nets102820%106.7115.7-9.0
27 Chicago Bulls91811%112.7129.3-16.7
28 Utah Jazz111109%106.5117.6-11.2
29 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
30 Milwaukee Bucks111109%106.3121.2-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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