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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 15 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 99-118
21-36 24-35 22-20 32-27
Position#17
Record22-16
FormLLWWL
Points / game116.4
Allowed / game111.7
vs
Position#9
Record23-15
FormWLWWW
Points / game120.4
Allowed / game116.1
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets
31 Mar 2027
DAL v DEN
upcoming
14 Jan 2026
DAL109
DEN118
23 Dec 2025
DAL131
DEN130
14 Jan 2025
DAL99
DEN118
12 Jan 2025
DAL101
DEN112
17 Mar 2024
DAL107
DEN105
20 Nov 2022
DAL97
DEN98
18 Nov 2022
DAL127
DEN99
03 Jan 2022
DAL103
DEN89
15 Nov 2021
DAL111
DEN101
25 Jan 2021
DAL113
DEN117
11 Mar 2020
DAL113
DEN97
08 Jan 2020
DAL106
DEN107
22 Feb 2019
DAL104
DEN114
06 Mar 2018
DAL118
DEN107
04 Dec 2017
DAL122
DEN105
11 Apr 2017
DAL91
DEN109
12 Dec 2016
DAL112
DEN92
26 Feb 2016
DAL122
DEN116
28 Nov 2015
DAL92
DEN81
16 Jan 2015
DAL97
DEN89
21 Mar 2014
DAL122
DEN106
25 Nov 2013
DAL96
DEN110
12 Apr 2013
DAL108
DEN105
28 Dec 2012
DAL85
DEN106
15 Feb 2012
DAL102
DEN84
26 Dec 2011
DAL93
DEN115
06 Apr 2011
DAL96
DEN104
06 Nov 2010
DAL92
DEN103
29 Mar 2010
DAL109
DEN93
11 May 2009
DAL119
DEN117
09 May 2009
DAL105
DEN106
27 Mar 2009
DAL101
DEN103
15 Dec 2008
DAL88
DEN98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
99-105
99
105
-6
85avg 107
H25/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
98-89
98
89
+9
93avg 107
A28/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
122-126
122
126
-4
109avg 107
A29/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
100-110
100
110
-10
88avg 107
A31/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
99-110
99
110
-11
92avg 107
A02/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
122-134
122
134
-12
114avg 107
H04/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
104-119
104
119
-15
92avg 107
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
118-97
118
97
+21
116avg 107
H08/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
117-111
117
111
+6
115avg 107
H10/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
101-112
101
112
-11
90avg 107
H12/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-26
16-31
28-33
31-15
28-25
27-14
17-25
26-25
25-36
34-33
23-28
40-29
37-23
23-33
17-27
23-27
30-24
22-37
23-28
24-21
21-32
32-37
32-31
37-34
36-26
19-30
25-31
24-32
24-27
31-23
34-26
29-21
20-28
33-30
28-31
36-22
32-17
29-41
28-21
12-33
219.3Avg total
108.0Scored
111.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)116.4111.7228.1+4.758%
Season at home (19)115.2107.7222.9+7.463%
Season away (19)117.6115.6233.2+1.953%
Last 10 (10)108.0111.3219.3-3.330%
Last 5 (5)112.4114.6227.0-2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)111.4114.7226.1-3.244%
vs Similar ◀ (16)119.4114.5233.9+4.962%
vs Weaker (4)122.0100.2222.2+21.875%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
135-149
135
149
-14
135avg 110
H28/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
134-121
134
121
+13
132avg 110
H29/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
132-121
132
121
+11
131avg 110
A31/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
139-120
139
120
+19
147avg 110
H02/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
110-113
110
113
-3
102avg 110
H04/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
122-111 OT
122
111
+11
115avg 110
A05/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
106-118
106
118
-12
95avg 110
H08/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
126-103
126
103
+23
124avg 110
H09/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
124-105
124
105
+19
126avg 110
H11/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
112-101
112
101
+11
105avg 110
A12/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-40
27-40
36-36
34-33
36-38
31-23
47-28
20-32
36-37
28-29
34-23
34-32
40-33
34-38
41-24
24-25
30-32
22-28
38-27
20-26
30-27
24-28
27-37
27-16
25-37
32-20
26-31
23-30
33-19
33-31
32-27
28-26
32-36
33-23
29-20
30-26
17-32
41-29
21-28
33-12
240.2Avg total
124.0Scored
116.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)120.4116.1236.5+4.261%
Season at home (19)120.5115.6236.2+4.963%
Season away (19)120.2116.6236.8+3.658%
Last 10 (10)124.0116.2240.2+7.870%
Last 5 (5)118.0107.6225.6+10.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)118.3131.0249.3-12.70%
vs Similar ◀ (14)121.2115.7236.9+5.571%
vs Weaker (13)120.8112.5233.2+8.362%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +1.5+1.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +1.5+1.5
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
40-57
40
57
-17
H25/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A28/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A29/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A31/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
52-61
52
61
-9
A02/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
53-69
53
69
-16
H04/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
55-50
55
50
+5
H08/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H10/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H12/01
NBA
111.6Avg total
54.3Scored
57.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.255.6114.9+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (12)55.452.7108.1+2.867%-
Last 30 away (18)61.857.6119.4+4.267%-
Last 10 (10)54.357.3111.6-3.040%-
Last 5 (5)55.458.2113.6-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)54.354.0108.3+0.344%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)61.457.2118.6+4.275%-
vs Weaker (4)62.852.8115.5+10.0100%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
65-80
65
80
-15
H28/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
67-61
67
61
+6
H29/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A31/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H02/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H04/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A05/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H08/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
66-50
66
50
+16
H09/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H11/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A12/01
NBA
124.2Avg total
62.2Scored
62.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.361.2121.5-0.937%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.261.8122.0-1.650%-
Last 30 away (16)60.460.6121.0-0.225%-
Last 10 (10)62.262.0124.2+0.240%-
Last 5 (5)60.056.4116.4+3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)61.367.7129.0-6.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)59.660.7120.4-1.143%-
vs Weaker (13)60.860.2120.9+0.638%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 108.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.725.8
50.9%
54.3%51.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.613.1
36.8%
35.9%39.3
🏀 Free throws21.317.1
80.3%
77.8%17.1
They take 86.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 124.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers70.6 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.135.3
56.8%
54.3%70.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.812.1
38.1%
35.9%36.3
🏀 Free throws21.817.1
78.4%
77.8%17.1
They take 93.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
LWWLLLLLWL
Denver Nuggets
WWWLWLWWWL
#17
League position
#9
-3.3
Net rating
+7.5
108.2
Offensive rating
119.2
111.5
Defensive rating
111.7
52.7%
Effective FG%
56.9%
52.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.5%
14.1%
Turnover %
11.0%
22.9%
Off. rebound %
25.2%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.23
36.8%
3-point %
38.1%
59.4%
Assist %
68.1%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence108.2 · 119.2Defence111.5 · 111.7Shooting52.7% · 56.9%3-point %36.8% · 38.1%Ball care14.1% · 11.0%Off. rebounds22.9% · 25.2%Free throws0.25 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/25HDenver Nuggets101-112
10/01/25HPortland Trail Blazers117-111
08/01/25HLos Angeles Lakers118-97
07/01/25AMemphis Grizzlies104-119
04/01/25HCleveland Cavaliers122-134
02/01/25AHouston Rockets99-110
31/12/24ASacramento Kings100-110
29/12/24APortland Trail Blazers122-126
28/12/24APhoenix Suns98-89
25/12/24HMinnesota Timberwolves99-105
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/25ADallas Mavericks112-101
11/01/25HBrooklyn Nets124-105
09/01/25HLos Angeles Clippers126-103
08/01/25HBoston Celtics106-118
05/01/25ASan Antonio Spurs122-111 OT
04/01/25HSan Antonio Spurs110-113
02/01/25HAtlanta Hawks139-120
31/12/24AUtah Jazz132-121
29/12/24HDetroit Pistons134-121
28/12/24HCleveland Cavaliers135-149

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL58%
HomeLLWWL63%
AwayWLLLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %58%63%53%
Points / game116.4115.2117.6
Allowed / game111.7107.7115.6
Point differential+4.7+7.4+1.9
Avg total228.1222.9233.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%47%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (9)50% (2)29% (7)
Overtime %3%0%5%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW61%
HomeWLLWW63%
AwayWLWWW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %61%63%58%
Points / game120.4120.5120.2
Allowed / game116.1115.6116.6
Point differential+4.2+4.9+3.6
Avg total236.5236.2236.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%42%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)57% (7)57% (7)
Overtime %11%0%21%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers3934587%122.3111.4+10.8
2 Oklahoma City Thunder3731684%116.3103.5+12.7
3 Boston Celtics39281172%118.0108.7+9.3
4 Houston Rockets36251169%114.4107.7+6.6
5 New York Knicks40261465%117.7110.8+6.8
6 Memphis Grizzlies40251562%122.9115.2+7.7
7 Denver Nuggets38231561%120.4116.1+4.2
8 Dallas Mavericks38221658%116.4111.7+4.7
9 Orlando Magic40231757%104.7103.0+1.7
10 Los Angeles Clippers38211755%108.9108.1+0.8
11 Los Angeles Lakers37201754%111.6114.3-2.7
12 Minnesota Timberwolves39211854%109.6107.6+2.0
13 Indiana Pacers41221954%115.3115.2+0.0
14 Milwaukee Bucks36191753%113.2111.9+1.3
15 Miami Heat38201853%110.8109.3+1.5
16 Detroit Pistons40211952%112.4113.3-0.9
17 Atlanta Hawks37191851%118.0120.6-2.5
18 Sacramento Kings40202050%116.1113.9+2.2
19 Golden State Warriors38191950%111.6111.2+0.4
20 San Antonio Spurs38191950%111.7111.5+0.1
21 Phoenix Suns39192049%112.5113.9-1.5
22 Chicago Bulls40182245%118.0120.8-2.8
23 Philadelphia 76ers38152339%107.3110.8-3.6
24 Portland Trail Blazers38132534%108.2116.4-8.2
25 Brooklyn Nets39132633%107.3113.7-6.4
26 Utah Jazz38102826%110.9117.6-6.7
27 Toronto Raptors4093122%111.0118.8-7.8
28 Charlotte Hornets3682822%106.2112.4-6.2
29 New Orleans Pelicans4193222%108.0117.1-9.1
30 Washington Wizards3863216%108.3122.6-14.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Dallas Mavericks2124223299
Denver Nuggets36352027118
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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