PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 21 Jan 2019
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 107-99
33-23 17-27 37-18 20-31
Position#11
Record29-21
FormLLWWW
Points / game111.3
Allowed / game106.1
vs
Position#17
Record25-25
FormWWLLW
Points / game106.9
Allowed / game106.7
USANBA· TD Garden
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
02 Apr 2027
BOS v MIA
upcoming
25 Dec 2026
BOS v MIA
upcoming
06 Feb 2026
BOS98
MIA96
19 Dec 2025
BOS129
MIA116
02 Apr 2025
BOS103
MIA124
02 Dec 2024
BOS108
MIA89
13 Jul 2024
BOS114
MIA119
01 May 2024
BOS118
MIA84
24 Apr 2024
BOS101
MIA111
21 Apr 2024
BOS114
MIA94
27 Oct 2023
BOS119
MIA111
08 Jul 2023
BOS88
MIA99
29 May 2023
BOS84
MIA103
25 May 2023
BOS110
MIA97
19 May 2023
BOS105
MIA111
17 May 2023
BOS116
MIA123
02 Dec 2022
BOS116
MIA120
30 Nov 2022
BOS134
MIA121
27 May 2022
BOS103
MIA111
23 May 2022
BOS102
MIA82
21 May 2022
BOS103
MIA109
30 Mar 2022
BOS98
MIA106
31 Jan 2022
BOS122
MIA92
11 May 2021
BOS121
MIA129
09 May 2021
BOS124
MIA130
25 Sep 2020
BOS121
MIA108
17 Sep 2020
BOS101
MIA106
15 Sep 2020
BOS114
MIA117
04 Dec 2019
BOS112
MIA93
01 Apr 2019
BOS110
MIA105
21 Jan 2019
BOS107
MIA99
14 Jul 2018
BOS74
MIA72
20 Dec 2017
BOS89
MIA90
26 Mar 2017
BOS112
MIA108
30 Dec 2016
BOS117
MIA114
13 Apr 2016
BOS98
MIA88
27 Feb 2016
BOS101
MIA89
14 Jul 2015
BOS101
MIA69
25 Mar 2015
BOS86
MIA93
01 Feb 2015
BOS75
MIA83
05 Jul 2014
BOS85
MIA77
19 Mar 2014
BOS101
MIA96
18 Mar 2013
BOS103
MIA105
27 Jan 2013
BOS100
MIA98
07 Jun 2012
BOS79
MIA98
03 Jun 2012
BOS93
MIA91
01 Jun 2012
BOS101
MIA91
24 Apr 2012
BOS78
MIA66
01 Apr 2012
BOS91
MIA72
09 May 2011
BOS90
MIA98
07 May 2011
BOS97
MIA81
13 Feb 2011
BOS85
MIA82
26 Oct 2010
BOS88
MIA80
27 Apr 2010
BOS96
MIA86
20 Apr 2010
BOS106
MIA77
17 Apr 2010
BOS85
MIA76
03 Feb 2010
BOS107
MIA102
10 Apr 2009
BOS105
MIA98
18 Mar 2009
BOS112
MIA108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
115-102
115
102
+13
H03/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
114-93
114
93
+21
H05/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
W
116-95
116
95
+21
H08/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
135-108
135
108
+27
H10/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
99-115
99
115
-16
A11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
L
103-105
103
105
-2
A13/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
L
102-109
102
109
-7
A15/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#2
W
117-108
117
108
+9
H17/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
W
122-116
122
116
+6
H19/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
W
113-105
113
105
+8
A20/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-21
35-21
27-39
28-21
34-23
24-28
26-17
30-25
34-22
22-23
30-29
30-21
29-23
39-30
37-27
30-28
24-28
19-33
29-22
27-32
19-19
32-22
26-31
26-33
25-27
20-19
21-44
36-19
30-36
34-17
23-30
30-25
35-24
23-38
38-29
26-25
28-36
32-31
23-22
30-16
219.2Avg total
113.6Scored
105.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (50)111.3106.1217.3+5.258%
Season at home (24)113.6104.1217.7+9.575%
Season away (26)109.2107.9217.0+1.342%
Last 10 (10)113.6105.6219.2+8.070%
Last 5 (5)111.4108.6220.0+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)107.0120.0227.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (7)114.1113.9228.0+0.343%
vs Weaker (22)116.5105.2221.6+11.373%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
104-113
104
113
-9
H30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
117-92
117
92
+25
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
115-109
115
109
+6
H05/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
82-106
82
106
-24
A06/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
L
99-103
99
103
-4
H09/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
W
115-99
115
99
+16
H11/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
W
112-108
112
108
+4
H12/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
86-124
86
124
-38
A16/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#18
L
93-98
93
98
-5
A19/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
117-103
117
103
+14
A20/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-30
35-25
23-31
27-27
22-23
36-20
35-30
24-19
31-24
30-34
34-28
20-23
16-23
21-15
21-41
24-27
18-24
34-25
24-27
23-27
28-24
33-19
22-29
32-27
30-34
33-27
28-22
21-25
23-30
22-39
18-24
23-31
17-30
22-23
30-12
24-33
31-30
24-27
28-19
34-27
209.5Avg total
104.0Scored
105.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (50)106.9106.7213.6+0.250%
Season at home (26)107.2106.1213.3+1.154%
Season away (24)106.6107.3213.9-0.746%
Last 10 (10)104.0105.5209.5-1.550%
Last 5 (5)104.6106.4211.0-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)98.0107.4205.4-9.443%
vs Similar ◀ (16)103.6102.6206.2+0.950%
vs Weaker (7)109.3100.6209.9+8.771%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -3.7-3.7Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: -1.4-1.4
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
60-42
60
42
+18
H03/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
58-51
58
51
+7
H05/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H08/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
68-53
68
53
+15
H10/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
43-61
43
61
-18
A11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
51-41
51
41
+10
A13/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A15/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#2
W
64-53
64
53
+11
H17/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
L
58-62
58
62
-4
H19/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
60-67
60
67
-7
A20/01
NBA
108.4Avg total
56.3Scored
52.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.053.4110.5+3.663%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.354.1114.5+6.280%-
Last 30 away (15)53.752.7106.5+1.047%-
Last 10 (10)56.352.1108.4+4.260%-
Last 5 (5)55.653.8109.4+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)48.065.0113.0-17.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)55.751.7107.4+4.071%-
vs Weaker (22)57.953.5111.3+4.464%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
58-43
58
43
+15
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H05/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A06/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H09/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
W
61-43
61
43
+18
H11/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H12/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
45-69
45
69
-24
A16/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#18
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A19/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A20/01
NBA
105.1Avg total
52.5Scored
52.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.451.9104.3+0.557%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.751.6105.3+2.160%-
Last 30 away (15)51.252.2103.4-1.053%-
Last 10 (10)52.552.6105.1-0.150%-
Last 5 (5)52.656.6109.2-4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)47.655.3102.9-7.714%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)53.951.4105.3+2.475%-
vs Weaker (7)54.049.6103.6+4.457%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 113.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.829.1
53.1%
51.7%58.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.113.3
39.0%
35.4%39.9
🏀 Free throws19.015.5
81.6%
76.6%15.5
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 104.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.129.0
53.6%
51.7%58.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.411.0
35.0%
35.4%33.0
🏀 Free throws20.413.0
63.7%
76.6%13.0
They take 85.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Jan 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
WWWLLLWWWW
Miami Heat
WLLWWLLWWL
#11
League position
#17
+7.9
Net rating
-1.5
112.9
Offensive rating
105.6
104.9
Defensive rating
107.1
55.2%
Effective FG%
53.2%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.4%
21.7%
Off. rebound %
23.3%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.24
39.0%
3-point %
35.0%
65.6%
Assist %
65.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence112.9 · 105.6Defence104.9 · 107.1Shooting55.2% · 53.2%3-point %39.0% · 35.0%Ball care12.7% · 14.4%Off. rebounds21.7% · 23.3%Free throws0.21 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Boston Celtics   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Boston Celtics wins
3
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/19AAtlanta Hawks113-105
19/01/19HMemphis Grizzlies122-116
17/01/19HToronto Raptors117-108
15/01/19ABrooklyn Nets102-109
13/01/19AOrlando Magic103-105
11/01/19AMiami Heat99-115
10/01/19HIndiana Pacers135-108
08/01/19HBrooklyn Nets116-95
05/01/19HDallas Mavericks114-93
03/01/19HMinnesota Timberwolves115-102
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/19AChicago Bulls117-103
19/01/19ADetroit Pistons93-98
16/01/19AMilwaukee Bucks86-124
12/01/19HMemphis Grizzlies112-108
11/01/19HBoston Celtics115-99
09/01/19HDenver Nuggets99-103
06/01/19AAtlanta Hawks82-106
05/01/19HWashington Wizards115-109
03/01/19ACleveland Cavaliers117-92
30/12/18HMinnesota Timberwolves104-113

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boston Celtics
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW58%
HomeWWWWW75%
AwayLLLLW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games502426
Win %58%75%42%
Points / game111.3113.6109.2
Allowed / game106.1104.1107.9
Point differential+5.2+9.5+1.3
Avg total217.3217.7217.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%46%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)75% (4)40% (5)
Overtime %8%8%8%
Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW50%
HomeLWLWW54%
AwayWLLLW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games502624
Win %50%54%46%
Points / game106.9107.2106.6
Allowed / game106.7106.1107.3
Point differential+0.2+1.1-0.7
Avg total213.6213.3213.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%15%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (17)56% (9)38% (8)
Overtime %2%0%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks50371374%118.2107.6+10.6
2 Toronto Raptors52381473%114.0108.0+6.0
3 Denver Nuggets49341569%111.1106.1+5.0
4 Indiana Pacers50331766%108.5103.2+5.4
5 Golden State Warriors51331865%117.8112.1+5.7
6 Philadelphia 76ers50321864%115.6112.3+3.3
7 Oklahoma City Thunder50311962%113.4108.4+5.0
8 Portland Trail Blazers52312160%112.6109.8+2.8
9 Houston Rockets49292059%112.8110.1+2.7
10 Boston Celtics50292158%111.3106.1+5.2
11 Utah Jazz50292158%109.1104.5+4.6
12 Los Angeles Clippers49282157%114.4113.1+1.3
13 San Antonio Spurs53302357%111.1108.6+2.6
14 Los Angeles Lakers53282553%112.4111.6+0.8
15 Brooklyn Nets52272552%111.2111.5-0.3
16 Charlotte Hornets51262551%112.4111.5+0.9
17 Miami Heat50252550%106.9106.7+0.2
18 Sacramento Kings52252748%112.8115.7-2.9
19 Washington Wizards50232746%113.0115.2-2.2
20 Minnesota Timberwolves51232845%111.4113.2-1.8
21 Detroit Pistons51222943%106.0108.6-2.6
22 Dallas Mavericks49212843%109.9110.2-0.4
23 New Orleans Pelicans52223042%116.8116.0+0.7
24 Orlando Magic51213041%103.7107.1-3.4
25 Memphis Grizzlies52213140%101.2104.8-3.6
26 Atlanta Hawks51163531%109.9117.7-7.7
27 New York Knicks50133726%107.3115.0-7.8
28 Chicago Bulls52133925%101.2110.6-9.4
29 Phoenix Suns52124023%105.8114.7-9.0
30 Cleveland Cavaliers52114121%102.8113.3-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Boston Celtics33173720107
Miami Heat2327183199
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.