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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 11 May 2021
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 121-129
28-28 28-34 23-31 42-36
Position#16
Record35-35
FormWLWLL
Points / game112.4
Allowed / game111.3
vs
Position#15
Record38-32
FormWWLWW
Points / game107.5
Allowed / game107.9
USANBA· TD Garden
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
02 Apr 2027
BOS v MIA
upcoming
25 Dec 2026
BOS v MIA
upcoming
06 Feb 2026
BOS98
MIA96
19 Dec 2025
BOS129
MIA116
02 Apr 2025
BOS103
MIA124
02 Dec 2024
BOS108
MIA89
01 May 2024
BOS118
MIA84
24 Apr 2024
BOS101
MIA111
21 Apr 2024
BOS114
MIA94
27 Oct 2023
BOS119
MIA111
29 May 2023
BOS84
MIA103
25 May 2023
BOS110
MIA97
19 May 2023
BOS105
MIA111
17 May 2023
BOS116
MIA123
02 Dec 2022
BOS116
MIA120
30 Nov 2022
BOS134
MIA121
27 May 2022
BOS103
MIA111
23 May 2022
BOS102
MIA82
21 May 2022
BOS103
MIA109
30 Mar 2022
BOS98
MIA106
31 Jan 2022
BOS122
MIA92
11 May 2021
BOS121
MIA129
09 May 2021
BOS124
MIA130
25 Sep 2020
BOS121
MIA108
17 Sep 2020
BOS101
MIA106
15 Sep 2020
BOS114
MIA117
04 Dec 2019
BOS112
MIA93
01 Apr 2019
BOS110
MIA105
21 Jan 2019
BOS107
MIA99
20 Dec 2017
BOS89
MIA90
26 Mar 2017
BOS112
MIA108
30 Dec 2016
BOS117
MIA114
13 Apr 2016
BOS98
MIA88
27 Feb 2016
BOS101
MIA89
25 Mar 2015
BOS86
MIA93
01 Feb 2015
BOS75
MIA83
19 Mar 2014
BOS101
MIA96
18 Mar 2013
BOS103
MIA105
27 Jan 2013
BOS100
MIA98
07 Jun 2012
BOS79
MIA98
03 Jun 2012
BOS93
MIA91
01 Jun 2012
BOS101
MIA91
24 Apr 2012
BOS78
MIA66
01 Apr 2012
BOS91
MIA72
09 May 2011
BOS90
MIA98
07 May 2011
BOS97
MIA81
13 Feb 2011
BOS85
MIA82
26 Oct 2010
BOS88
MIA80
27 Apr 2010
BOS96
MIA86
20 Apr 2010
BOS106
MIA77
17 Apr 2010
BOS85
MIA76
03 Feb 2010
BOS107
MIA102
10 Apr 2009
BOS105
MIA98
18 Mar 2009
BOS112
MIA108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#3
W
99-86
99
86
+13
95avg 104
H22/04
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
104-109
104
109
-5
93avg 104
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
104-125
104
125
-21
88avg 104
A25/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
L
115-119
115
119
-4
96avg 104
H27/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
120-111
120
111
+9
116avg 104
H28/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
143-140 OT
143
140
+3
133avg 104
H30/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
119-129
119
129
-10
116avg 104
H02/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
132-96
132
96
+36
126avg 104
A05/05
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
99-121
99
121
-22
88avg 104
A07/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
L
124-130
124
130
-6
119avg 104
H09/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-21
27-16
24-28
22-21
25-21
26-39
22-28
31-21
23-33
29-30
36-37
16-25
24-29
25-26
29-23
37-41
39-19
19-28
30-33
32-31
16-39
32-38
42-26
38-25
32-34
39-37
27-32
21-26
39-27
24-18
37-30
32-21
28-30
18-30
28-34
25-27
23-36
30-43
31-26
40-25
232.5Avg total
115.9Scored
116.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)112.4111.3223.7+1.150%
Season at home (36)113.2110.6223.8+2.658%
Season away (34)111.5112.0223.5-0.541%
Last 10 (10)115.9116.6232.5-0.740%
Last 5 (5)123.4123.2246.6+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)108.2108.8217.0-0.733%
vs Similar ◀ (16)114.1114.5228.6-0.450%
vs Weaker (8)117.4108.4225.8+9.062%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
107-87
107
87
+20
104avg 103
A22/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
L
103-118
103
118
-15
94avg 103
A23/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
106-101
106
101
+5
97avg 103
H25/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
102-110
102
110
-8
86avg 103
H27/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
116-111
116
111
+5
115avg 103
H29/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
124-107
124
107
+17
120avg 103
A02/05
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
121-111
121
111
+10
117avg 103
A03/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
113-127
113
127
-14
109avg 103
H05/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
121-112
121
112
+9
112avg 103
H08/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
130-124
130
124
+6
129avg 103
A09/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
24-26
26-19
30-15
30-31
31-31
28-33
14-23
33-18
28-23
19-22
26-38
26-20
27-32
29-24
20-34
31-20
24-34
27-20
34-37
29-36
38-24
32-26
25-21
35-32
30-26
35-22
21-31
39-30
15-33
23-35
36-29
28-32
31-22
30-24
32-34
36-23
43-30
26-31
25-40
225.1Avg total
114.3Scored
110.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)107.5107.9215.4-0.454%
Season at home (36)108.7109.1217.8-0.556%
Season away (34)106.3106.6212.9-0.353%
Last 10 (10)114.3110.8225.1+3.570%
Last 5 (5)121.8116.2238.0+5.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)100.2111.5211.8-11.225%
vs Similar ◀ (19)108.5108.9217.4-0.453%
vs Weaker (7)114.1103.6217.7+10.686%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: +4.5+4.5Q2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: -3.9-3.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: +4.5+4.5Q2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: -3.9-3.9
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#3
W
53-37
53
37
+16
H22/04
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
51-60
51
60
-9
A23/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
52-63
52
63
-11
A25/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
L
49-55
49
55
-6
H27/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H28/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
L
48-77
48
77
-29
H30/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
D
71-71
71
71
+0
H02/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
63-45
63
45
+18
A05/05
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
46-60
46
60
-14
A07/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
L
53-79
53
79
-26
H09/05
NBA
113.8Avg total
54.4Scored
59.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.356.5109.8-3.337%-
Last 30 at home (18)53.056.5109.5-3.539%-
Last 30 away (12)53.756.6110.2-2.933%-
Last 10 (10)54.459.4113.8-5.030%-
Last 5 (5)56.266.4122.6-10.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)53.755.8109.5-2.233%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)54.358.8113.1-4.538%-
vs Weaker (8)50.952.5103.4-1.638%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#22
L
51-53
51
53
-2
A22/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
L
61-62
61
62
-1
A23/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
61-41
61
41
+20
H25/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H27/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
55-54
55
54
+1
H29/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
67-60
67
60
+7
A02/05
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
65-58
65
58
+7
A03/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
54-63
54
63
-9
H05/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H08/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
79-53
79
53
+26
A09/05
NBA
115.5Avg total
60.5Scored
55.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.655.3110.9+0.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.756.0112.7+0.750%-
Last 30 away (14)54.454.4108.9+0.043%-
Last 10 (10)60.555.0115.5+5.570%-
Last 5 (5)64.857.6122.4+7.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)51.558.5110.0-7.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)55.055.1110.1-0.142%-
vs Weaker (7)59.753.9113.6+5.971%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 115.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.626.0
52.4%
52.8%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.115.3
37.2%
36.6%45.9
🏀 Free throws22.418.0
80.4%
77.7%18.0
They take 90.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 114.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.128.2
57.4%
52.8%56.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.813.2
37.9%
36.6%39.6
🏀 Free throws22.118.3
82.8%
77.7%18.3
They take 83.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 May 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
LLWLWWLLLW
Miami Heat
WWLWWWLWLW
#16
League position
#15
-0.7
Net rating
+3.6
111.8
Offensive rating
118.6
112.5
Defensive rating
115.0
54.0%
Effective FG%
57.2%
54.6%
Opp. effective FG%
58.3%
14.3%
Turnover %
10.7%
25.4%
Off. rebound %
19.2%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
37.2%
3-point %
37.9%
58.6%
Assist %
64.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence111.8 · 118.6Defence112.5 · 115.0Shooting54.0% · 57.2%3-point %37.2% · 37.9%Ball care14.3% · 10.7%Off. rebounds25.4% · 19.2%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Boston Celtics   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Boston Celtics wins
6
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/05/21HMiami Heat124-130
07/05/21AChicago Bulls99-121
05/05/21AOrlando Magic132-96
02/05/21HPortland Trail Blazers119-129
30/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs143-140 OT
28/04/21HCharlotte Hornets120-111
27/04/21HOklahoma City Thunder115-119
25/04/21ACharlotte Hornets104-125
23/04/21ABrooklyn Nets104-109
22/04/21HPhoenix Suns99-86
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/05/21ABoston Celtics130-124
08/05/21HMinnesota Timberwolves121-112
05/05/21HDallas Mavericks113-127
03/05/21ACharlotte Hornets121-111
02/05/21ACleveland Cavaliers124-107
29/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs116-111
27/04/21HChicago Bulls102-110
25/04/21HChicago Bulls106-101
23/04/21AAtlanta Hawks103-118
22/04/21ASan Antonio Spurs107-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boston Celtics
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL50%
HomeLWWLL58%
AwayWLLWL41%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703634
Win %50%58%41%
Points / game112.4113.2111.5
Allowed / game111.3110.6112.0
Point differential+1.1+2.6-0.5
Avg total223.7223.8223.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%28%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won52% (23)67% (9)43% (14)
Overtime %6%6%6%
Miami Heat
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW54%
HomeWLWLW56%
AwayWLWWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703634
Win %54%56%53%
Points / game107.5108.7106.3
Allowed / game107.9109.1106.6
Point differential-0.4-0.5-0.3
Avg total215.4217.8212.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%22%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (18)50% (10)50% (8)
Overtime %6%6%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz72531974%116.8107.2+9.6
2 Philadelphia 76ers70492170%113.8108.0+5.7
3 Phoenix Suns72482467%114.2109.4+4.8
4 Brooklyn Nets70462466%118.5114.2+4.4
5 Denver Nuggets72472565%115.4109.7+5.7
6 Los Angeles Clippers71452663%113.3108.2+5.1
7 Milwaukee Bucks71432861%119.5114.5+5.0
8 Dallas Mavericks71422959%112.7109.7+2.9
9 Los Angeles Lakers72423058%109.4106.4+3.0
10 New York Knicks72413157%106.8104.2+2.7
11 Portland Trail Blazers73413256%115.5114.8+0.7
12 Atlanta Hawks73403355%113.4112.1+1.3
13 Miami Heat70383254%107.5107.9-0.4
14 Memphis Grizzlies72383453%113.5112.2+1.3
15 Golden State Warriors72383453%113.3112.4+0.9
16 Boston Celtics70353550%112.4111.3+1.1
17 Charlotte Hornets73343947%109.9111.4-1.5
18 New Orleans Pelicans71333846%115.0114.3+0.7
19 San Antonio Spurs71333846%110.9112.5-1.7
20 Washington Wizards72333946%115.9118.2-2.2
21 Indiana Pacers71323945%114.7115.1-0.4
22 Chicago Bulls72324044%110.8111.4-0.6
23 Sacramento Kings72324044%113.8117.5-3.7
24 Toronto Raptors71294241%111.5111.3+0.2
25 Minnesota Timberwolves72234932%112.0117.7-5.7
26 Orlando Magic72234932%104.7113.1-8.5
27 Cleveland Cavaliers73235032%103.5112.0-8.5
28 Oklahoma City Thunder72225031%105.2115.6-10.4
29 Detroit Pistons74225230%106.1110.0-3.9
30 Houston Rockets73195426%108.9115.8-6.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Boston Celtics28282342121
Miami Heat28343136129
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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