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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 22 Apr 2023
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 121-99
29-21 37-32 28-26 27-20
Position#10
Record46-40
FormWLWWL
Points / game109.7
Allowed / game110.1
vs
Position#1
Record59-25
FormWLLLW
Points / game117.2
Allowed / game113.6
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#8
L
92-101
92
101
-9
80avg 100
A29/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
129-122
129
122
+7
122avg 100
H01/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
118-105
118
105
+13
112avg 100
A04/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
129-101
129
101
+28
134avg 100
A06/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
108-114
108
114
-6
96avg 100
A07/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
123-110
123
110
+13
124avg 100
H09/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
105-116
105
116
-11
92avg 100
H11/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
102-91
102
91
+11
97avg 100
H14/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
130-117
130
117
+13
129avg 100
A16/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
122-138
122
138
-16
117avg 100
A20/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
23-29
30-28
16-25
44-31
32-33
26-32
27-26
31-27
28-25
21-27
38-26
41-31
26-15
29-32
33-23
23-26
28-27
20-36
37-25
23-24
29-26
32-35
39-25
27-36
23-29
28-26
27-25
29-21
20-23
18-24
35-23
33-24
35-31
34-33
28-29
28-35
27-46
30-37
37-20
227.3Avg total
115.8Scored
111.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (86)109.7110.1219.8-0.353%
Season at home (43)111.1109.9221.0+1.165%
Season away (43)108.4110.2218.6-1.842%
Last 10 (10)115.8111.5227.3+4.360%
Last 5 (5)116.4114.4230.8+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)109.0110.3219.3-1.333%
vs Similar ◀ (24)112.7115.1227.8-2.450%
vs Weaker (3)111.0104.3215.3+6.767%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
126-117
126
117
+9
120avg 109
A27/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
149-136
149
136
+13
150avg 109
A29/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
99-140
99
140
-41
80avg 109
H30/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
117-104
117
104
+13
118avg 109
H03/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
140-128
140
128
+12
142avg 109
A04/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
105-92
105
92
+13
100avg 109
H05/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
114-137
114
137
-23
106avg 109
H08/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
105-121
105
121
-16
100avg 109
A09/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
117-130
117
130
-13
108avg 109
H16/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
138-122
138
122
+16
136avg 109
H20/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-27
26-24
37-39
32-27
34-30
39-39
46-38
30-29
26-34
21-41
27-39
25-26
41-26
28-27
27-29
21-22
32-29
43-33
39-35
26-31
28-21
21-30
30-25
26-16
31-36
41-35
15-37
27-29
26-35
29-32
24-28
26-26
24-33
31-35
33-34
29-28
35-28
46-27
37-30
20-37
243.7Avg total
121.0Scored
122.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (84)117.2113.6230.8+3.670%
Season at home (43)119.2113.1232.3+6.177%
Season away (41)115.0114.1229.2+0.963%
Last 10 (10)121.0122.7243.7-1.760%
Last 5 (5)115.8120.4236.2-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)117.1115.5232.6+1.667%
vs Weaker (9)133.6120.1253.7+13.489%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: -4.2-4.2Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: +7.0+7.0Q4: -0.9-0.9
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: -4.2-4.2Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: +7.0+7.0Q4: -0.9-0.9
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#8
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A29/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
76-64
76
64
+12
H01/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
59-52
59
52
+7
A04/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
67-46
67
46
+21
A06/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
51-53
51
53
-2
A07/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H09/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H11/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H14/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
68-55
68
55
+13
A16/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
55-81
55
81
-26
A20/04
NBA
113.1Avg total
57.3Scored
55.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.558.1114.6-1.643%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.859.8118.6-1.047%-
Last 30 away (15)54.156.4110.5-2.340%-
Last 10 (10)57.355.8113.1+1.560%-
Last 5 (5)54.859.0113.8-4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)55.060.3115.3-5.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (24)57.058.7115.7-1.846%-
vs Weaker (3)54.051.0105.0+3.067%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A27/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
73-69
73
69
+4
A29/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
47-75
47
75
-28
H30/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
69-53
69
53
+16
H03/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
75-62
75
62
+13
A04/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H05/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
W
72-71
72
71
+1
H08/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
55-67
55
67
-12
A09/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
55-68
55
68
-13
H16/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
81-55
81
55
+26
H20/04
NBA
125.5Avg total
63.3Scored
62.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.857.5119.2+4.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)63.357.7121.1+5.680%-
Last 30 away (15)60.257.2117.4+3.067%-
Last 10 (10)63.362.2125.5+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)62.462.4124.8+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (21)59.157.3116.4+1.862%-
vs Weaker (9)68.057.8125.8+10.2100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 115.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.428.2
58.3%
54.5%56.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.714.2
38.7%
35.8%42.6
🏀 Free throws21.216.8
79.2%
78.1%16.8
They take 85.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 121.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers47.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.129.6
57.9%
54.5%59.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.615.8
38.9%
35.8%47.4
🏀 Free throws19.214.4
75.0%
78.1%14.4
They take 91.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Apr 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWWLWLWWWL
Milwaukee Bucks
WLLLWWWLWW
#10
League position
#1
+4.4
Net rating
-1.7
117.4
Offensive rating
118.1
113.0
Defensive rating
119.8
58.2%
Effective FG%
58.1%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
59.1%
12.4%
Turnover %
13.0%
19.2%
Off. rebound %
25.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.21
38.7%
3-point %
38.9%
63.4%
Assist %
63.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence117.4 · 118.1Defence113.0 · 119.8Shooting58.2% · 58.1%3-point %38.7% · 38.9%Ball care12.4% · 13.0%Off. rebounds19.2% · 25.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami Heat wins
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/04/23AMilwaukee Bucks122-138
16/04/23AMilwaukee Bucks130-117
14/04/23HChicago Bulls102-91
11/04/23HAtlanta Hawks105-116
09/04/23HOrlando Magic123-110
07/04/23AWashington Wizards108-114
06/04/23APhiladelphia 76ers129-101
04/04/23ADetroit Pistons118-105
01/04/23HDallas Mavericks129-122
29/03/23ANew York Knicks92-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/04/23HMiami Heat138-122
16/04/23HMiami Heat117-130
09/04/23AToronto Raptors105-121
08/04/23HMemphis Grizzlies114-137
05/04/23HChicago Bulls105-92
04/04/23AWashington Wizards140-128
03/04/23HPhiladelphia 76ers117-104
30/03/23HBoston Celtics99-140
29/03/23AIndiana Pacers149-136
27/03/23ADetroit Pistons126-117

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL53%
HomeLWWLW65%
AwayWWLWL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games864343
Win %53%65%42%
Points / game109.7111.1108.4
Allowed / game110.1109.9110.2
Point differential-0.3+1.1-1.8
Avg total219.8221.0218.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%14%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (39)70% (23)50% (16)
Overtime %6%2%9%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW70%
HomeWWLLW77%
AwayLWWWL63%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844341
Win %70%77%63%
Points / game117.2119.2115.0
Allowed / game113.6113.1114.1
Point differential+3.6+6.1+0.9
Avg total230.8232.3229.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%44%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won69% (13)57% (7)83% (6)
Overtime %6%2%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks84592570%117.2113.6+3.6
2 Boston Celtics85592669%117.9111.4+6.5
3 Philadelphia 76ers86582867%114.7110.0+4.6
4 Denver Nuggets85562966%115.8112.1+3.8
5 Memphis Grizzlies84523262%116.7112.9+3.8
6 Cleveland Cavaliers85523361%111.6106.5+5.1
7 Sacramento Kings85503559%120.4117.9+2.5
8 New York Knicks85493658%115.3112.4+2.9
9 Phoenix Suns86483856%113.9111.6+2.3
10 Miami Heat86464053%109.7110.1-0.3
11 Golden State Warriors85454053%118.8117.0+1.8
12 Los Angeles Lakers85454053%116.9116.2+0.7
13 Brooklyn Nets86454152%112.4112.1+0.3
14 Los Angeles Clippers86454152%113.5113.3+0.2
15 New Orleans Pelicans83424151%114.4112.6+1.8
16 Atlanta Hawks86434350%118.2118.0+0.2
17 Minnesota Timberwolves87434449%115.2115.5-0.4
18 Toronto Raptors83414249%112.8111.3+1.4
19 Chicago Bulls84414349%112.8111.6+1.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder84414349%117.3116.5+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks82384446%114.2114.1+0.1
22 Utah Jazz82374545%117.1118.0-0.9
23 Washington Wizards82354743%113.2114.4-1.2
24 Indiana Pacers82354743%116.3119.5-3.2
25 Orlando Magic82344841%111.4114.0-2.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers82334940%113.4117.4-4.0
27 Charlotte Hornets82275533%111.0117.2-6.2
28 Houston Rockets82226027%110.7118.6-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs82226027%113.0123.1-10.0
30 Detroit Pistons82176521%110.3118.5-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat29372827121
Milwaukee Bucks2132262099
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