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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 21 Oct 2022
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 104-111
22-30 29-29 26-30 27-22
Position#10
Record0-1
FormLLLWL
Points / game108.0
Allowed / game116.0
vs
Position#3
Record1-0
FormWLLLW
Points / game126.0
Allowed / game117.0
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#6
L
102-127
102
127
-25
90avg 102
H20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
109-103
109
103
+6
93avg 102
A22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
82-102
82
102
-20
64avg 102
A24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
80-93
80
93
-13
60avg 102
H26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
111-103
111
103
+8
106avg 102
A28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
96-100
96
100
-4
79avg 102
H30/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
66-100
66
100
-34
no box
H02/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#1
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
A03/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#4
W
94-70
94
70
+24
no box
H05/07
California Classic
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
108-116
108
116
-8
102avg 102
H19/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-35
21-35
26-26
31-31
39-18
23-29
25-25
22-31
11-29
22-28
19-19
30-26
19-17
23-20
16-32
22-24
29-22
19-24
34-29
29-28
17-32
32-23
26-27
21-18
17-29
10-22
14-19
25-30
14-17
21-16
21-20
8-28
27-22
24-16
17-21
26-11
33-28
26-31
27-37
22-20
190.7Avg total
91.2Scored
99.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)108.0116.0224.0-8.00%
Season at home (1)108.0116.0224.0-8.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)91.299.5190.7-8.330%
Last 5 (5)85.693.4179.0-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)65.090.5155.5-25.50%
vs Similar (23)104.9102.1207.0+2.761%
vs Weaker (5)119.8103.8223.6+16.080%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#4
W
93-80
93
80
+13
94avg 105
A26/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#4
L
103-111
103
111
-8
97avg 105
H28/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#4
W
100-96
100
96
+4
93avg 105
A30/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
120-108
120
108
+12
119avg 105
A03/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
88-107
88
107
-19
81avg 105
A06/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
116-100
116
100
+16
111avg 105
H09/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
97-107
97
107
-10
no box
H11/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
94-104
94
104
-10
72avg 105
A14/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
90-103
90
103
-13
87avg 105
H17/06
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
126-117
126
117
+9
119avg 105
H18/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-19
20-23
32-16
24-22
22-29
24-19
29-34
28-29
32-17
23-32
27-26
18-21
28-32
28-22
24-38
40-16
30-31
20-21
14-35
24-20
33-22
35-34
25-33
23-11
28-27
26-22
24-30
19-28
16-27
23-24
35-24
20-29
22-27
17-27
27-22
24-27
24-29
39-34
35-25
28-29
206.0Avg total
102.7Scored
103.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)126.0117.0243.0+9.0100%
Season at home (1)126.0117.0243.0+9.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)102.7103.3206.0-0.650%
Last 5 (5)104.6106.2210.8-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (23)107.2102.8210.0+4.352%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)120.4107.9228.3+12.6100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#6
L
45-70
45
70
-25
H20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
62-47
62
47
+15
A22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
33-57
33
57
-24
A24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
49-55
49
55
-6
H30/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
27-51
27
51
-24
H02/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#1
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A03/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#4
W
51-38
51
38
+13
H05/07
California Classic
Chicago Bulls
#19
D
59-59
59
59
+0
H19/10
NBA
94.4Avg total
45.1Scored
49.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.351.8103.1-0.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)52.452.0104.4+0.453%-
Last 30 away (13)49.951.5101.5-1.654%-
Last 10 (10)45.149.394.4-4.250%-
Last 5 (5)44.247.291.4-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)31.042.073.0-11.050%-
vs Similar (23)51.152.4103.5-1.348%-
vs Weaker (5)60.652.8113.4+7.880%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#4
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A26/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#4
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H28/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#4
W
55-49
55
49
+6
A30/05
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A03/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
50-52
50
52
-2
A06/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
68-56
68
56
+12
H09/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H11/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
39-51
39
51
-12
A14/06
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
39-54
39
54
-15
H17/06
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H18/10
NBA
102.5Avg total
50.7Scored
51.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.651.7107.3+4.060%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.153.1109.2+2.953%-
Last 30 away (15)55.250.2105.4+5.067%-
Last 10 (10)50.751.8102.5-1.140%-
Last 5 (5)52.654.6107.2-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (23)53.850.1103.9+3.757%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)61.756.7118.4+5.071%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.727.2
51.6%
54.5%54.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.210.5
31.6%
35.8%31.5
🏀 Free throws20.916.6
79.4%
78.1%16.6
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 102.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.023.0
50.0%
54.5%46.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.413.0
37.8%
35.8%39.0
🏀 Free throws22.517.5
77.8%
78.1%17.5
They take 80.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Oct 2022 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLLLWLLWL
Boston Celtics
WLLLWLWWLW
#10
League position
#3
-0.1
Net rating
-0.8
105.8
Offensive rating
105.6
105.9
Defensive rating
106.4
50.0%
Effective FG%
52.9%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
12.6%
Turnover %
15.8%
23.5%
Off. rebound %
21.7%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.28
31.6%
3-point %
37.8%
54.1%
Assist %
67.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.8 · 105.6Defence105.9 · 106.4Shooting50.0% · 52.9%3-point %31.6% · 37.8%Ball care12.6% · 15.8%Off. rebounds23.5% · 21.7%Free throws0.24 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/10/22HChicago Bulls108-116
05/07/22HGolden State Warriors94-70
03/07/22ASacramento Kings64-81
02/07/22HLos Angeles Lakers66-100
30/05/22HBoston Celtics96-100
28/05/22ABoston Celtics111-103
26/05/22HBoston Celtics80-93
24/05/22ABoston Celtics82-102
22/05/22ABoston Celtics109-103
20/05/22HBoston Celtics102-127
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/10/22HPhiladelphia 76ers126-117
17/06/22HGolden State Warriors90-103
14/06/22AGolden State Warriors94-104
11/06/22HGolden State Warriors97-107
09/06/22HGolden State Warriors116-100
06/06/22AGolden State Warriors88-107
03/06/22AGolden State Warriors120-108
30/05/22AMiami Heat100-96
28/05/22HMiami Heat103-111
26/05/22AMiami Heat93-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game108.0108.0-
Allowed / game116.0116.0-
Point differential-8.0-8.0-
Avg total224.0224.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Boston Celtics
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game126.0126.0-
Allowed / game117.0117.0-
Point differential+9.0+9.0-
Avg total243.0243.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz110100%123.0102.0+21.0
2 New Orleans Pelicans220100%127.0110.0+17.0
3 Golden State Warriors110100%123.0109.0+14.0
4 Atlanta Hawks110100%117.0107.0+10.0
5 Boston Celtics110100%126.0117.0+9.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves110100%115.0108.0+7.0
7 Portland Trail Blazers110100%115.0108.0+7.0
8 Los Angeles Clippers110100%103.097.0+6.0
9 Washington Wizards220100%108.0103.5+4.5
10 Detroit Pistons110100%113.0109.0+4.0
11 Memphis Grizzlies110100%115.0112.0+3.0
12 Toronto Raptors110100%108.0105.0+3.0
13 Milwaukee Bucks110100%90.088.0+2.0
14 Phoenix Suns110100%107.0105.0+2.0
15 Charlotte Hornets21150%120.5113.0+7.5
16 Chicago Bulls21150%108.0105.0+3.0
17 San Antonio Spurs21150%119.5131.5-12.0
18 Dallas Mavericks1010%105.0107.0-2.0
19 Cleveland Cavaliers1010%105.0108.0-3.0
20 New York Knicks1010%112.0115.0-3.0
21 Orlando Magic1010%109.0113.0-4.0
22 Indiana Pacers2020%120.5125.5-5.0
23 Philadelphia 76ers2020%102.5108.0-5.5
24 Oklahoma City Thunder1010%108.0115.0-7.0
25 Sacramento Kings1010%108.0115.0-7.0
26 Miami Heat1010%108.0116.0-8.0
27 Houston Rockets1010%107.0117.0-10.0
28 Los Angeles Lakers2020%103.0113.0-10.0
29 Denver Nuggets1010%102.0123.0-21.0
30 Brooklyn Nets1010%108.0130.0-22.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat22292627104
Boston Celtics30293022111
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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