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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 98-95
32-30 18-28 25-24 23-13
Position#10
Record26-22
FormWLWLW
Points / game108.6
Allowed / game108.4
vs
Position#3
Record35-13
FormWWWWL
Points / game118.1
Allowed / game112.2
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
109-112
109
112
-3
96avg 101
A05/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
104-96
104
96
+8
92avg 101
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
101-102
101
102
-1
86avg 101
H08/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
112-111
112
111
+1
102avg 101
H11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
108-102
108
102
+6
104avg 101
H13/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
111-95
111
95
+16
105avg 101
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
113-121
113
121
-8
109avg 101
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
124-98
124
98
+26
124avg 101
A19/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
90-115
90
115
-25
82avg 101
A21/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
100-96
100
96
+4
89avg 101
H22/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-32
25-20
30-27
31-33
30-23
21-23
27-27
26-23
30-31
34-35
18-13
19-23
31-26
32-30
26-32
23-23
14-23
31-22
33-28
30-29
28-20
25-25
24-26
34-24
26-38
24-32
30-21
33-30
36-23
34-28
28-25
26-22
19-31
32-29
16-32
23-23
23-32
18-15
28-25
31-24
212.0Avg total
107.2Scored
104.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (48)108.6108.4217.1+0.254%
Season at home (24)109.2107.9217.2+1.362%
Season away (24)108.0109.0217.0-0.946%
Last 10 (10)107.2104.8212.0+2.460%
Last 5 (5)107.6105.0212.6+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)120.0124.7244.7-4.733%
vs Similar (23)107.7105.0212.7+2.870%
vs Weaker (4)107.2110.0217.2-2.850%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
124-95
124
95
+29
126avg 111
A06/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
W
121-116
121
116
+5
113avg 111
A07/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
107-99
107
99
+8
103avg 111
H10/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
125-114
125
114
+11
120avg 111
H12/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
W
109-98
109
98
+11
104avg 111
A13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
122-106
122
106
+16
119avg 111
A15/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
130-118
130
118
+12
133avg 111
A16/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
121-118 OT
121
118
+3
106avg 111
H20/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
106-104
106
104
+2
99avg 111
A21/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
98-113
98
113
-15
88avg 111
A24/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
35-26
25-19
35-30
33-30
35-27
25-32
28-27
28-25
31-25
25-23
23-26
35-32
29-26
33-27
28-29
29-31
31-26
24-25
25-16
31-34
31-32
33-19
27-21
35-22
31-33
26-31
38-32
25-26
29-29
28-34
24-17
26-27
24-30
31-28
25-19
23-30
31-25
25-33
19-25
224.4Avg total
116.3Scored
108.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (48)118.1112.2230.4+5.973%
Season at home (23)121.9112.6234.5+9.378%
Season away (25)114.6111.9226.5+2.768%
Last 10 (10)116.3108.1224.4+8.290%
Last 5 (5)115.4111.8227.2+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)124.0115.0239.0+9.067%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)116.4111.2227.6+5.270%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +3.0+3.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +3.0+3.0
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A05/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H08/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H13/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
53-45
53
45
+8
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
50-70
50
70
-20
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
70-51
70
51
+19
A19/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
51-60
51
60
-9
A21/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H22/01
NBA
107.4Avg total
53.6Scored
53.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.454.6111.0+1.953%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.752.6108.4+3.164%-
Last 30 away (16)57.156.2113.3+0.844%-
Last 10 (10)53.653.8107.4-0.240%-
Last 5 (5)53.054.6107.6-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)58.763.3122.0-4.70%-
vs Similar (23)56.253.7109.8+2.561%-
vs Weaker (4)56.253.2109.5+3.050%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
64-46
64
46
+18
A06/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
W
68-57
68
57
+11
A07/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
59-50
59
50
+9
H10/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
64-58
64
58
+6
H12/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#13
W
60-57
60
57
+3
A13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A15/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
66-55
66
55
+11
A16/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H20/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A21/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A24/01
NBA
115.7Avg total
60.1Scored
55.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.557.0116.5+2.557%-
Last 30 at home (15)59.456.8116.2+2.667%-
Last 30 away (15)59.657.1116.7+2.547%-
Last 10 (10)60.155.6115.7+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)57.257.6114.8-0.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)60.061.7121.7-1.767%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)59.456.4115.9+3.056%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.729.8
54.5%
54.5%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.19.5
30.5%
35.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws22.719.1
84.1%
78.1%19.1
They take 85.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 116.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.926.3
53.8%
54.5%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.615.5
37.3%
35.8%46.5
🏀 Free throws20.317.2
84.7%
78.1%17.2
They take 90.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Jan 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWLWWWLWL
Boston Celtics
LWWWWWWWWW
#10
League position
#3
+2.5
Net rating
+8.2
109.7
Offensive rating
116.0
107.2
Defensive rating
107.8
51.3%
Effective FG%
54.8%
54.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.5%
14.1%
Turnover %
12.4%
28.0%
Off. rebound %
25.9%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.22
30.5%
3-point %
37.3%
56.2%
Assist %
64.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence109.7 · 116.0Defence107.2 · 107.8Shooting51.3% · 54.8%3-point %30.5% · 37.3%Ball care14.1% · 12.4%Off. rebounds28.0% · 25.9%Free throws0.26 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans100-96
21/01/23ADallas Mavericks90-115
19/01/23ANew Orleans Pelicans124-98
16/01/23AAtlanta Hawks113-121
14/01/23HMilwaukee Bucks111-95
13/01/23HMilwaukee Bucks108-102
11/01/23HOklahoma City Thunder112-111
08/01/23HBrooklyn Nets101-102
07/01/23APhoenix Suns104-96
05/01/23ALos Angeles Lakers109-112
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/23AOrlando Magic98-113
21/01/23AToronto Raptors106-104
20/01/23HGolden State Warriors121-118 OT
16/01/23ACharlotte Hornets130-118
15/01/23ACharlotte Hornets122-106
13/01/23ABrooklyn Nets109-98
12/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans125-114
10/01/23HChicago Bulls107-99
07/01/23ASan Antonio Spurs121-116
06/01/23ADallas Mavericks124-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW54%
HomeLWWWW62%
AwayLWLWL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games482424
Win %54%62%46%
Points / game108.6109.2108.0
Allowed / game108.4107.9109.0
Point differential+0.2+1.3-0.9
Avg total217.1217.2217.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%12%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won61% (23)69% (13)50% (10)
Overtime %6%4%8%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL73%
HomeWWWWW78%
AwayWWWWL68%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games482325
Win %73%78%68%
Points / game118.1121.9114.6
Allowed / game112.2112.6111.9
Point differential+5.9+9.3+2.7
Avg total230.4234.5226.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%48%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (11)50% (6)80% (5)
Overtime %10%13%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics48351373%118.1112.2+5.9
2 Denver Nuggets47331470%117.2112.9+4.4
3 Memphis Grizzlies47311666%117.0112.4+4.7
4 Philadelphia 76ers46301665%114.1110.2+3.8
5 Milwaukee Bucks47301764%113.2111.8+1.4
6 Brooklyn Nets46291763%113.7110.7+3.0
7 Cleveland Cavaliers48291960%111.7107.2+4.4
8 Sacramento Kings46271959%120.3116.7+3.6
9 New Orleans Pelicans47262155%116.0113.4+2.6
10 Miami Heat48262254%108.6108.4+0.2
11 New York Knicks48252352%114.3112.3+2.0
12 Dallas Mavericks48252352%112.6112.2+0.4
13 Los Angeles Clippers49252451%109.7110.5-0.8
14 Utah Jazz50252550%117.6116.3+1.3
15 Phoenix Suns48242450%112.6112.0+0.6
16 Atlanta Hawks48242450%115.6116.2-0.5
17 Minnesota Timberwolves49242549%115.3115.6-0.3
18 Indiana Pacers49242549%115.0116.6-1.6
19 Oklahoma City Thunder47232449%116.6115.5+1.1
20 Golden State Warriors47232449%117.6118.0-0.4
21 Portland Trail Blazers47222547%113.6113.1+0.5
22 Chicago Bulls47222547%114.6114.7-0.1
23 Los Angeles Lakers47222547%117.1118.0-0.9
24 Toronto Raptors48212744%112.6112.4+0.2
25 Washington Wizards46202643%112.5113.3-0.8
26 Orlando Magic47182938%111.0114.3-3.4
27 San Antonio Spurs47143330%113.1122.0-8.9
28 Charlotte Hornets48133527%112.4118.9-6.5
29 Detroit Pistons49123724%112.4120.3-7.9
30 Houston Rockets47113623%109.9117.4-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat3218252398
Boston Celtics3028241395
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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