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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 02 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 23:30
Scheduled
Position#3
Record10-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game103.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
4.0/10
Below normal
Position#15
Record7-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game118.7
Allowed / game119.8
USANBA· TD Garden
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
02 Apr 2027
BOS v MIA
upcoming
25 Dec 2026
BOS v MIA
upcoming
06 Feb 2026
BOS98
MIA96
19 Dec 2025
BOS129
MIA116
02 Apr 2025
BOS103
MIA124
02 Dec 2024
BOS108
MIA89
01 May 2024
BOS118
MIA84
24 Apr 2024
BOS101
MIA111
21 Apr 2024
BOS114
MIA94
27 Oct 2023
BOS119
MIA111
29 May 2023
BOS84
MIA103
25 May 2023
BOS110
MIA97
19 May 2023
BOS105
MIA111
17 May 2023
BOS116
MIA123
02 Dec 2022
BOS116
MIA120
30 Nov 2022
BOS134
MIA121
27 May 2022
BOS103
MIA111
23 May 2022
BOS102
MIA82
21 May 2022
BOS103
MIA109
30 Mar 2022
BOS98
MIA106
31 Jan 2022
BOS122
MIA92
11 May 2021
BOS121
MIA129
09 May 2021
BOS124
MIA130
25 Sep 2020
BOS121
MIA108
17 Sep 2020
BOS101
MIA106
15 Sep 2020
BOS114
MIA117
04 Dec 2019
BOS112
MIA93
01 Apr 2019
BOS110
MIA105
21 Jan 2019
BOS107
MIA99
20 Dec 2017
BOS89
MIA90
26 Mar 2017
BOS112
MIA108
30 Dec 2016
BOS117
MIA114
13 Apr 2016
BOS98
MIA88
27 Feb 2016
BOS101
MIA89
25 Mar 2015
BOS86
MIA93
01 Feb 2015
BOS75
MIA83
19 Mar 2014
BOS101
MIA96
18 Mar 2013
BOS103
MIA105
27 Jan 2013
BOS100
MIA98
07 Jun 2012
BOS79
MIA98
03 Jun 2012
BOS93
MIA91
01 Jun 2012
BOS101
MIA91
24 Apr 2012
BOS78
MIA66
01 Apr 2012
BOS91
MIA72
09 May 2011
BOS90
MIA98
07 May 2011
BOS97
MIA81
13 Feb 2011
BOS85
MIA82
26 Oct 2010
BOS88
MIA80
27 Apr 2010
BOS96
MIA86
20 Apr 2010
BOS106
MIA77
17 Apr 2010
BOS85
MIA76
03 Feb 2010
BOS107
MIA102
10 Apr 2009
BOS105
MIA98
18 Mar 2009
BOS112
MIA108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Celtics win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
134-99
134
99
+35
127avg 106
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
125-124 OT
125
124
+1
119avg 106
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
125-111
125
111
+14
118avg 106
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
108-97
108
97
+11
103avg 106
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
93-109
93
109
-16
78avg 106
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
109-102
109
102
+7
102avg 106
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
119-80
119
80
+39
123avg 106
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
117-97
117
97
+20
109avg 106
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
123-101
123
101
+22
117avg 106
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
98-93
98
93
+5
95avg 106
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-21
33-33
39-21
29-24
26-31
30-30
30-21
31-35
44-25
34-24
21-25
26-37
24-23
31-27
22-24
31-23
29-29
21-28
23-25
20-27
28-14
34-27
25-38
22-23
40-20
30-19
26-18
23-23
25-27
33-18
33-29
26-23
30-23
32-28
29-31
32-19
29-38
25-23
21-19
23-13
216.4Avg total
115.1Scored
101.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)114.2103.1217.3+11.283%
Season at home (5)120.0107.8227.8+12.2100%
Season away (7)110.199.7209.9+10.471%
Last 10 (10)115.1101.3216.4+13.890%
Last 5 (5)113.294.6207.8+18.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)109.0106.2215.2+2.860%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)115.5105.0220.5+10.576%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 113
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 113
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 113
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 113
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 113
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 113
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 113
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 113
A11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
133-121
133
121
+12
136avg 113
H14/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
W
137-117
137
117
+20
139avg 113
H15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
29-27
25-30
38-34
41-30
37-39
31-21
35-26
34-31
240.0Avg total
121.6Scored
118.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)118.7119.8238.5-1.254%
Season at home (6)123.5122.5246.0+1.050%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)121.6118.4240.0+3.270%
Last 5 (5)119.8115.0234.8+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)115.9131.0246.9-15.114%
vs Similar (15)122.1122.9245.1-0.840%
vs Weaker (8)122.2117.6239.9+4.675%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -0.3-0.3
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -0.3-0.3
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
66-54
66
54
+12
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
78-49
78
49
+29
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
70-39
70
39
+31
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
58-45
58
45
+13
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
54-61
54
61
-7
A12/11
NBA
111.9Avg total
61.1Scored
50.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.252.0111.1+7.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.953.3112.2+5.753%-
Last 30 away (15)59.450.7110.1+8.767%-
Last 10 (10)61.150.8111.9+10.370%-
Last 5 (5)61.247.4108.6+13.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)54.054.8108.8-0.820%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)60.251.4111.6+8.868%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
54-57
54
57
-3
H14/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H15/11
NBA
121.9Avg total
62.0Scored
59.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.762.7123.4-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.962.9123.9-2.043%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.059.9121.9+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)61.456.6118.0+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)60.068.9128.9-8.914%-
vs Similar (15)58.360.9119.3-2.640%-
vs Weaker (8)65.660.6126.2+5.062%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 110.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.123.6
53.5%
54.0%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.215.0
34.7%
35.1%45.0
🏀 Free throws24.118.1
75.1%
77.3%18.1
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.229.6
55.6%
54.0%59.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.213.2
33.7%
35.1%39.6
🏀 Free throws26.519.8
74.7%
77.3%19.8
They take 92.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
WWWWWLWWWW
Miami Heat
WWWWLWLWWL
#3
League position
#15
+4.2
Net rating
-0.8
109.8
Offensive rating
111.8
105.6
Defensive rating
112.5
52.8%
Effective FG%
53.5%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
55.6%
13.4%
Turnover %
11.4%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
19.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.29
34.7%
3-point %
33.7%
65.3%
Assist %
66.4%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence109.8 · 111.8Defence105.6 · 112.5Shooting52.8% · 53.5%3-point %34.7% · 33.7%Ball care13.4% · 11.4%Off. rebounds24.9% · 19.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)90% · 70%
■ Boston Celtics   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Boston Celtics wins
1
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AToronto Raptors98-93
11/11/26APhiladelphia 76ers123-101
09/11/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-97
07/11/26ACharlotte Hornets119-80
05/11/26HMilwaukee Bucks109-102
03/11/26AHouston Rockets93-109
01/11/26AOrlando Magic108-97
30/10/26HChicago Bulls125-111
27/10/26HBrooklyn Nets125-124 OT
26/10/26HChicago Bulls134-99
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HDetroit Pistons137-117
14/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers133-121
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boston Celtics
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %83%100%71%
Points / game114.2120.0110.1
Allowed / game103.1107.899.7
Point differential+11.2+12.2+10.4
Avg total217.3227.8209.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%40%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%20%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW54%
HomeLLWWW50%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game118.7123.5114.6
Allowed / game119.8122.5117.6
Point differential-1.2+1.0-3.0
Avg total238.5246.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%50%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %8%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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