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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 27 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 84-104
12-21 27-42 22-24 23-17
Position#18
Record48-38
FormWLWLW
Points / game109.9
Allowed / game108.1
vs
Position#1
Record65-18
FormLWWWL
Points / game120.4
Allowed / game108.9
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#19
W
119-104
119
104
+15
116avg 102
A06/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
115-117
115
117
-2
105avg 102
A07/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
117-111 OT
117
111
+6
113avg 102
A09/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
92-111
92
111
-19
87avg 102
H10/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
125-103
125
103
+22
125avg 102
H13/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
118-103
118
103
+15
118avg 102
H14/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
104-105
104
105
-1
94avg 102
A17/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
112-91
112
91
+21
111avg 102
H19/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
94-114
94
114
-20
86avg 102
A21/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
111-101
111
101
+10
109avg 102
A24/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
37-32
29-24
26-21
24-38
22-25
32-28
37-26
30-27
29-20
21-33
21-21
24-33
23-36
27-19
18-23
33-22
33-28
26-25
33-28
24-24
43-22
27-25
24-32
23-22
28-17
23-30
30-36
34-17
13-20
35-23
30-31
21-26
24-34
14-31
35-23
28-27
30-34
27-18
26-22
216.7Avg total
110.7Scored
106.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (86)109.9108.1218.0+1.856%
Season at home (42)112.1109.8221.9+2.455%
Season away (44)107.8106.6214.4+1.257%
Last 10 (10)110.7106.0216.7+4.760%
Last 5 (5)107.8102.8210.6+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)101.7107.3209.0-5.733%
vs Similar (17)105.1104.9210.0+0.141%
vs Weaker (10)117.4102.7220.1+14.790%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
118-104
118
104
+14
117avg 113
A01/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
135-100
135
100
+35
136avg 113
H03/04
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
101-100
101
100
+1
95avg 113
H05/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
124-107
124
107
+17
125avg 113
H07/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
91-104
91
104
-13
79avg 113
A09/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
109-118
109
118
-9
99avg 113
H11/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
131-98
131
98
+33
128avg 113
H12/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
132-122
132
122
+10
132avg 113
H14/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
114-94
114
94
+20
112avg 113
H21/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
L
101-111
101
111
-10
92avg 113
H24/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-32
29-21
36-26
23-25
30-23
31-24
32-36
42-17
27-15
27-35
30-22
17-28
30-24
33-32
30-29
31-22
21-37
22-26
24-15
24-26
29-32
19-37
23-31
38-18
30-24
39-19
25-33
37-22
34-30
35-29
38-30
25-33
26-21
34-24
31-14
23-35
27-28
34-30
18-27
22-26
221.4Avg total
115.6Scored
105.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (83)120.4108.9229.3+11.478%
Season at home (43)122.4107.7230.1+14.788%
Season away (40)118.2110.2228.4+7.968%
Last 10 (10)115.6105.8221.4+9.870%
Last 5 (5)117.4108.6226.0+8.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)135.0100.0235.0+35.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)119.5105.8225.3+13.876%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: +3.0+3.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: +3.0+3.0
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#19
W
64-59
64
59
+5
A06/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
46-63
46
63
-17
A07/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
59-47
59
47
+12
A09/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
47-69
47
69
-22
H10/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
66-50
66
50
+16
H13/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
67-46
67
46
+21
H14/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
51-39
51
39
+12
A17/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H19/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
45-60
45
60
-15
A21/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A24/04
NBA
108.1Avg total
55.0Scored
53.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.052.7108.7+3.363%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.350.4106.7+5.964%-
Last 30 away (16)55.854.7110.4+1.162%-
Last 10 (10)55.053.1108.1+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)53.648.6102.2+5.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)53.356.0109.3-2.733%-
vs Similar (17)53.652.2105.9+1.459%-
vs Weaker (10)60.852.5113.3+8.380%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
59-53
59
53
+6
A01/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H03/04
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H05/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H07/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
43-63
43
63
-20
A09/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
48-69
48
69
-21
H11/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
69-43
69
43
+26
H12/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
69-59
69
59
+10
H14/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
60-45
60
45
+15
H21/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H24/04
NBA
113.0Avg total
58.7Scored
54.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)63.053.6116.7+9.487%-
Last 30 at home (15)63.151.3114.4+11.993%-
Last 30 away (15)62.956.0118.9+6.980%-
Last 10 (10)58.754.3113.0+4.480%-
Last 5 (5)61.454.8116.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)61.047.0108.0+14.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)63.153.9117.0+9.286%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 110.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.625.9
54.4%
54.4%51.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.714.1
38.4%
36.3%42.3
🏀 Free throws19.616.6
84.7%
78.2%16.6
They take 84.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 115.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀10%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.3 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.827.7
59.2%
54.4%55.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.316.1
38.1%
36.3%48.3
🏀 Free throws15.311.9
77.8%
78.2%11.9
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWLWWLWLW
Boston Celtics
LWWWLLWWWW
#18
League position
#1
+4.8
Net rating
+10.2
113.5
Offensive rating
119.9
108.7
Defensive rating
109.8
55.8%
Effective FG%
58.2%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
12.6%
Turnover %
10.9%
20.9%
Off. rebound %
24.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.17
38.4%
3-point %
38.1%
65.5%
Assist %
64.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence113.5 · 119.9Defence108.7 · 109.8Shooting55.8% · 58.2%3-point %38.4% · 38.1%Ball care12.6% · 10.9%Off. rebounds20.9% · 24.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.17Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/04/24ABoston Celtics111-101
21/04/24ABoston Celtics94-114
19/04/24HChicago Bulls112-91
17/04/24APhiladelphia 76ers104-105
14/04/24HToronto Raptors118-103
13/04/24HToronto Raptors125-103
10/04/24HDallas Mavericks92-111
09/04/24AAtlanta Hawks117-111 OT
07/04/24AIndiana Pacers115-117
06/04/24AHouston Rockets119-104
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/04/24HMiami Heat101-111
21/04/24HMiami Heat114-94
14/04/24HWashington Wizards132-122
12/04/24HCharlotte Hornets131-98
11/04/24HNew York Knicks109-118
09/04/24AMilwaukee Bucks91-104
07/04/24HPortland Trail Blazers124-107
05/04/24HSacramento Kings101-100
03/04/24HOklahoma City Thunder135-100
01/04/24ACharlotte Hornets118-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW56%
HomeLLWWW55%
AwayLWLLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games864244
Win %56%55%57%
Points / game109.9112.1107.8
Allowed / game108.1109.8106.6
Point differential+1.8+2.4+1.2
Avg total218.0221.9214.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%26%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (20)40% (10)60% (10)
Overtime %2%0%5%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL78%
HomeLWWWL88%
AwayLLWWL68%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games834340
Win %78%88%68%
Points / game120.4122.4118.2
Allowed / game108.9107.7110.2
Point differential+11.4+14.7+7.9
Avg total229.3230.1228.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%56%48%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (19)86% (7)33% (12)
Overtime %7%5%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics83651878%120.4108.9+11.4
2 Oklahoma City Thunder85602571%119.7111.9+7.8
3 Denver Nuggets85602571%114.6109.3+5.3
4 Minnesota Timberwolves85592669%113.1106.3+6.9
5 New York Knicks84523262%112.6107.8+4.8
6 Los Angeles Clippers85523361%115.0111.8+3.1
7 Dallas Mavericks85523361%117.2115.0+2.2
8 Milwaukee Bucks83493459%118.4116.0+2.3
9 Phoenix Suns84493558%115.8113.4+2.4
10 Cleveland Cavaliers86503658%111.6109.8+1.9
11 New Orleans Pelicans85493658%114.1110.1+4.0
12 Philadelphia 76ers86493757%114.3111.4+2.9
13 Orlando Magic86493757%110.0107.6+2.4
14 Indiana Pacers83473657%122.9120.0+2.8
15 Sacramento Kings83473657%116.3114.3+2.0
16 Miami Heat86483856%109.9108.1+1.8
17 Golden State Warriors83463755%117.5115.2+2.3
18 Los Angeles Lakers84463855%117.3117.5-0.2
19 Houston Rockets82414150%114.3113.2+1.1
20 Chicago Bulls84404448%112.2113.7-1.5
21 Atlanta Hawks83364743%118.3120.6-2.3
22 Brooklyn Nets82325039%110.4113.3-2.9
23 Utah Jazz82315138%115.7120.5-4.9
24 Memphis Grizzlies82275533%105.8112.8-7.0
25 Toronto Raptors82255730%112.4118.8-6.4
26 San Antonio Spurs82226027%112.1118.6-6.5
27 Portland Trail Blazers82216126%106.4115.4-9.0
28 Charlotte Hornets82216126%106.6116.8-10.2
29 Washington Wizards82156718%113.7123.0-9.3
30 Detroit Pistons82146817%109.9119.0-9.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1227222384
Boston Celtics21422417104
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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