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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 14 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 91-103
23-30 27-20 27-28 14-25
Position#20
Record29-36
FormLLLLL
Points / game109.9
Allowed / game110.6
vs
Position#3
Record47-19
FormWWWWL
Points / game116.8
Allowed / game108.3
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
86-98
86
98
-12
70avg 104
A25/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
131-109
131
109
+22
139avg 104
H27/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
125-120
125
120
+5
128avg 104
H01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
112-116 OT
112
116
-4
106avg 104
H02/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
106-90
106
90
+16
109avg 104
H04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
107-112
107
112
-5
103avg 104
A06/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
104-106
104
106
-2
98avg 104
H08/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
109-114
109
114
-5
95avg 104
H09/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
L
102-105
102
105
-3
96avg 104
H10/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
104-119
104
119
-15
93avg 104
H13/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-23
20-27
23-23
21-25
29-28
36-37
42-28
24-16
29-35
39-34
29-23
28-28
27-22
35-23
25-36
18-24
32-24
23-12
26-32
25-22
32-36
27-27
23-23
25-26
25-33
27-19
28-28
24-26
36-24
19-24
34-30
20-36
34-21
24-31
19-21
25-32
20-30
32-27
32-35
20-27
217.5Avg total
108.6Scored
108.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)109.9110.6220.4-0.745%
Season at home (31)111.7111.0222.6+0.748%
Season away (34)108.2110.2218.4-2.041%
Last 10 (10)108.6108.9217.5-0.330%
Last 5 (5)105.2111.2216.4-6.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)102.1113.2215.4-11.10%
vs Similar (16)113.9115.1228.9-1.244%
vs Weaker (6)100.897.8198.7+3.067%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#6
W
118-105
118
105
+13
116avg 109
H23/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
111-101
111
101
+10
100avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
L
97-117
97
117
-20
83avg 109
A27/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
116-123
116
123
-7
103avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
110-103
110
103
+7
109avg 109
H02/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
128-118
128
118
+10
120avg 109
H06/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
123-105
123
105
+18
123avg 109
H07/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
111-101
111
101
+10
104avg 109
H09/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
114-108
114
108
+6
107avg 109
H10/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
112-118
112
118
-6
100avg 109
H12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-19
26-24
25-39
29-23
35-24
31-30
23-22
22-25
20-29
35-26
24-35
18-27
38-26
36-38
24-31
18-28
32-20
29-28
22-29
27-26
31-26
35-29
36-27
26-36
35-24
29-22
33-33
26-26
33-33
25-21
29-13
24-34
25-24
28-23
37-22
24-39
30-33
30-30
28-25
24-30
223.9Avg total
114.0Scored
109.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (66)116.8108.3225.2+8.571%
Season at home (35)117.6109.7227.3+7.966%
Season away (31)115.9106.8222.7+9.177%
Last 10 (10)114.0109.9223.9+4.170%
Last 5 (5)117.6110.0227.6+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)113.3115.3228.7-2.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)115.0107.6222.6+7.474%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +5.9+5.9Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: -5.6-5.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +5.9+5.9Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: -5.6-5.6
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A25/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
D
65-65
65
65
+0
H27/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
62-45
62
45
+17
H02/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
55-36
55
36
+19
H04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
59-63
59
63
-4
A06/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
D
52-52
52
52
+0
H08/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
55-48
55
48
+7
H09/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H10/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
52-57
52
57
-5
H13/03
NBA
110.5Avg total
56.8Scored
53.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.153.9110.0+2.257%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.454.5108.9-0.136%-
Last 30 away (16)57.653.4111.0+4.175%-
Last 10 (10)56.853.7110.5+3.140%-
Last 5 (5)55.254.4109.6+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)52.552.9105.4-0.438%-
vs Similar (16)58.556.7115.2+1.856%-
vs Weaker (6)54.548.0102.5+6.583%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#6
W
64-43
64
43
+21
H23/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
66-54
66
54
+12
A26/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
D
55-55
55
55
+0
A27/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
W
74-64
74
64
+10
H01/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H02/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
66-55
66
55
+11
H06/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
64-46
64
46
+18
H07/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
58-54
58
54
+4
H09/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H10/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H12/03
NBA
115.0Avg total
62.1Scored
52.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.953.3112.2+5.670%-
Last 30 at home (16)60.853.7114.4+7.175%-
Last 30 away (14)56.752.9109.6+3.964%-
Last 10 (10)62.152.9115.0+9.280%-
Last 5 (5)60.253.0113.2+7.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)62.757.0119.7+5.767%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)58.452.9111.3+5.670%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.126.6
55.3%
54.3%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.713.5
36.8%
35.9%40.5
🏀 Free throws18.514.9
80.5%
77.8%14.9
They take 84.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 114.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.4 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers53.1 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.723.7
56.8%
54.3%47.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers47.317.7
37.4%
35.9%53.1
🏀 Free throws16.313.5
82.8%
77.8%13.5
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 47.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLLLWLWWL
Boston Celtics
LWWWWWLLWW
#20
League position
#3
-0.3
Net rating
+4.3
112.0
Offensive rating
118.8
112.3
Defensive rating
114.5
55.2%
Effective FG%
56.5%
55.4%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
12.9%
Turnover %
12.2%
20.3%
Off. rebound %
28.3%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.18
36.8%
3-point %
37.4%
70.3%
Assist %
60.6%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence112.0 · 118.8Defence112.3 · 114.5Shooting55.2% · 56.5%3-point %36.8% · 37.4%Ball care12.9% · 12.2%Off. rebounds20.3% · 28.3%Free throws0.22 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
9
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/25HLos Angeles Clippers104-119
10/03/25HCharlotte Hornets102-105
09/03/25HChicago Bulls109-114
08/03/25HMinnesota Timberwolves104-106
06/03/25ACleveland Cavaliers107-112
04/03/25HWashington Wizards106-90
02/03/25HNew York Knicks112-116 OT
01/03/25HIndiana Pacers125-120
27/02/25HAtlanta Hawks131-109
25/02/25AAtlanta Hawks86-98
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/25HOklahoma City Thunder112-118
10/03/25HUtah Jazz114-108
09/03/25HLos Angeles Lakers111-101
07/03/25HPhiladelphia 76ers123-105
06/03/25HPortland Trail Blazers128-118
02/03/25HDenver Nuggets110-103
01/03/25HCleveland Cavaliers116-123
27/02/25ADetroit Pistons97-117
26/02/25AToronto Raptors111-101
23/02/25HNew York Knicks118-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL45%
HomeWLLLL48%
AwayLWLLL41%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653134
Win %45%48%41%
Points / game109.9111.7108.2
Allowed / game110.6111.0110.2
Point differential-0.7+0.7-2.0
Avg total220.4222.6218.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%32%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (21)25% (8)46% (13)
Overtime %11%10%12%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL71%
HomeWWWWL66%
AwayWWWWL77%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games663531
Win %71%66%77%
Points / game116.8117.6115.9
Allowed / game108.3109.7106.8
Point differential+8.5+7.9+9.1
Avg total225.2227.3222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%43%52%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (15)56% (9)50% (6)
Overtime %8%9%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers65551085%122.7111.4+11.3
2 Oklahoma City Thunder64521281%119.8107.4+12.4
3 Boston Celtics66471971%116.8108.3+8.5
4 New York Knicks64422266%117.4112.8+4.6
5 Memphis Grizzlies66422464%122.6116.7+5.9
6 Denver Nuggets66422464%121.1116.6+4.5
7 Houston Rockets64402462%113.5109.1+4.4
8 Los Angeles Lakers64402462%112.8111.4+1.4
9 Golden State Warriors65382758%114.2111.5+2.7
10 Minnesota Timberwolves67382957%112.9109.0+3.8
11 Indiana Pacers64362856%116.4115.4+1.0
12 Milwaukee Bucks63352856%114.9112.7+2.2
13 Detroit Pistons67373055%115.0113.2+1.8
14 Los Angeles Clippers66363055%111.1108.9+2.2
15 Sacramento Kings65333251%116.4115.4+1.0
16 Dallas Mavericks66333350%115.0114.6+0.4
17 Atlanta Hawks64313348%117.8120.0-2.2
18 Orlando Magic66313547%104.3105.7-1.4
19 Phoenix Suns66303645%114.3116.4-2.1
20 Miami Heat65293645%109.9110.6-0.7
21 Chicago Bulls66283842%116.6120.2-3.5
22 San Antonio Spurs64273742%113.8116.1-2.2
23 Portland Trail Blazers67283942%110.6114.6-4.0
24 Toronto Raptors66234335%110.8115.7-4.8
25 Philadelphia 76ers65224334%109.4114.4-5.0
26 Brooklyn Nets66224433%105.3111.6-6.3
27 New Orleans Pelicans67184927%110.8119.0-8.2
28 Charlotte Hornets65164925%105.4113.0-7.5
29 Utah Jazz66155123%112.5119.8-7.2
30 Washington Wizards65145122%108.7120.6-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2327271491
Boston Celtics30202825103
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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