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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 11 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 85-103
24-18 19-34 22-36 20-15
Position#20
Record25-25
FormLWLWL
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game110.6
vs
Position#3
Record37-16
FormWWWLW
Points / game117.5
Allowed / game108.7
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
128-107
128
107
+21
130avg 104
H19/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
107-116
107
116
-9
99avg 104
H22/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
96-125
96
125
-29
86avg 104
A24/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
106-97
106
97
+9
105avg 104
A25/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
125-119 OT
125
119
+6
122avg 104
H28/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
106-126
106
126
-20
99avg 104
H30/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
105-103
105
103
+2
103avg 104
A02/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
124-133
124
133
-9
118avg 104
A05/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
108-101
108
101
+7
108avg 104
A06/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
86-102
86
102
-16
71avg 104
A08/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-30
26-11
46-27
36-39
38-34
17-27
22-36
30-19
30-27
25-44
19-23
22-31
24-17
29-32
29-19
24-29
27-29
28-30
24-29
29-20
21-31
20-28
43-35
22-32
33-33
27-23
25-26
20-21
37-32
33-28
33-34
21-39
29-25
33-32
24-22
22-22
26-28
27-25
24-18
9-31
222.0Avg total
109.1Scored
112.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (50)110.5110.6221.1-0.250%
Season at home (22)112.9111.7224.6+1.255%
Season away (28)108.5109.8218.3-1.246%
Last 10 (10)109.1112.9222.0-3.850%
Last 5 (5)105.8113.0218.8-7.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)105.4110.4215.8-5.040%
vs Similar (18)113.6114.9228.5-1.444%
vs Weaker (7)103.7104.4208.1-0.771%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
117-113 OT
117
113
+4
102avg 110
A23/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
96-117
96
117
-21
81avg 110
A24/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
122-107
122
107
+15
114avg 110
A25/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
112-114
112
114
-2
106avg 110
H28/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
122-100
122
100
+22
120avg 110
H30/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
118-116
118
116
+2
113avg 110
A01/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
118-110
118
110
+8
118avg 110
A02/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
W
112-105
112
105
+7
103avg 110
A05/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
120-127
120
127
-7
116avg 110
H07/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
131-104
131
104
+27
127avg 110
A09/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-34
27-25
21-25
22-19
23-34
25-33
20-16
28-34
25-29
34-20
37-27
26-31
27-31
25-23
37-31
23-29
26-23
41-28
29-25
26-24
31-34
28-19
32-33
27-30
21-29
23-32
36-33
38-16
28-15
26-29
33-31
25-30
23-32
33-35
27-37
37-23
30-19
31-29
35-28
35-28
228.1Avg total
116.8Scored
111.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (53)117.5108.7226.2+8.870%
Season at home (26)118.0109.8227.9+8.262%
Season away (27)117.0107.6224.6+9.478%
Last 10 (10)116.8111.3228.1+5.570%
Last 5 (5)119.8112.4232.2+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)102.0105.0207.0-3.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)116.5107.9224.4+8.661%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -4.8-4.8Q4: +2.3+2.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -4.8-4.8Q4: +2.3+2.3
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H19/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H22/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A24/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
53-49
53
49
+4
A25/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H28/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
41-59
41
59
-18
H30/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A02/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
70-60
70
60
+10
A05/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A06/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A08/02
NBA
111.6Avg total
55.0Scored
56.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.954.8109.8+0.153%-
Last 30 at home (13)51.856.4108.2-4.538%-
Last 30 away (17)57.353.6110.9+3.665%-
Last 10 (10)55.056.6111.6-1.650%-
Last 5 (5)57.257.0114.2+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)49.650.6100.2-1.060%-
vs Similar (18)57.356.8114.1+0.544%-
vs Weaker (7)52.752.9105.6-0.171%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A23/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
48-67
48
67
-19
A24/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A25/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
52-54
52
54
-2
H28/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
67-51
67
51
+16
H30/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
59-53
59
53
+6
A01/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
L
44-61
44
61
-17
A02/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A05/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
56-67
56
67
-11
H07/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
61-48
61
48
+13
A09/02
NBA
111.3Avg total
56.0Scored
55.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.753.7111.4+4.067%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.454.8112.2+2.657%-
Last 30 away (16)57.952.7110.6+5.275%-
Last 10 (10)56.055.3111.3+0.760%-
Last 5 (5)54.854.6109.4+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)59.549.5109.0+10.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)57.654.0111.5+3.664%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 109.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.9 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.825.9
53.1%
54.3%51.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.814.3
35.9%
35.9%42.9
🏀 Free throws17.814.4
80.9%
77.8%14.4
They take 88.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 116.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀45%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers52.5 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.124.1
53.4%
54.3%48.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.017.5
39.8%
35.9%52.5
🏀 Free throws20.316.1
79.3%
77.8%16.1
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 44.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLWLWWLLW
Boston Celtics
WLWWWWLWLW
#20
League position
#3
-3.8
Net rating
+5.5
109.5
Offensive rating
117.2
113.4
Defensive rating
111.7
53.4%
Effective FG%
56.5%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
14.1%
Turnover %
11.2%
23.7%
Off. rebound %
22.2%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.9%
3-point %
39.8%
68.9%
Assist %
66.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence109.5 · 117.2Defence113.4 · 111.7Shooting53.4% · 56.5%3-point %35.9% · 39.8%Ball care14.1% · 11.2%Off. rebounds23.7% · 22.2%Free throws0.20 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/25ABrooklyn Nets86-102
06/02/25APhiladelphia 76ers108-101
05/02/25AChicago Bulls124-133
02/02/25ASan Antonio Spurs105-103
30/01/25HCleveland Cavaliers106-126
28/01/25HOrlando Magic125-119 OT
25/01/25ABrooklyn Nets106-97
24/01/25AMilwaukee Bucks96-125
22/01/25HPortland Trail Blazers107-116
19/01/25HSan Antonio Spurs128-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/25ANew York Knicks131-104
07/02/25HDallas Mavericks120-127
05/02/25ACleveland Cavaliers112-105
02/02/25APhiladelphia 76ers118-110
01/02/25ANew Orleans Pelicans118-116
30/01/25HChicago Bulls122-100
28/01/25HHouston Rockets112-114
25/01/25ADallas Mavericks122-107
24/01/25ALos Angeles Lakers96-117
23/01/25ALos Angeles Clippers117-113 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL50%
HomeLWLWL55%
AwayWWLWL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games502228
Win %50%55%46%
Points / game110.5112.9108.5
Allowed / game110.6111.7109.8
Point differential-0.2+1.2-1.2
Avg total221.1224.6218.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%36%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (14)33% (3)55% (11)
Overtime %10%9%11%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW70%
HomeWLLWL62%
AwayWWWWW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532627
Win %70%62%78%
Points / game117.5118.0117.0
Allowed / game108.7109.8107.6
Point differential+8.8+8.2+9.4
Avg total226.2227.9224.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%38%48%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (15)56% (9)50% (6)
Overtime %9%12%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder4940982%118.0105.0+12.9
2 Cleveland Cavaliers53431081%122.5112.0+10.5
3 Boston Celtics53371670%117.5108.7+8.8
4 Memphis Grizzlies52351767%123.5115.6+7.9
5 New York Knicks51341767%118.0111.8+6.2
6 Denver Nuggets53341964%120.9115.7+5.1
7 Houston Rockets51321963%113.6109.0+4.7
8 Los Angeles Lakers50311962%112.8112.1+0.7
9 Indiana Pacers51292257%115.7115.1+0.6
10 Los Angeles Clippers52292356%110.5107.8+2.7
11 Minnesota Timberwolves54302456%111.6108.3+3.3
12 Dallas Mavericks52282454%115.8113.2+2.5
13 Milwaukee Bucks49262353%114.7113.2+1.5
14 Golden State Warriors51262551%112.3112.3+0.0
15 Detroit Pistons53272651%112.9113.5-0.6
16 Sacramento Kings52262650%116.2115.4+0.8
17 Miami Heat50252550%110.5110.6-0.2
18 Phoenix Suns52262650%113.3114.8-1.6
19 Orlando Magic54262848%103.9105.6-1.7
20 Atlanta Hawks52252748%116.6119.1-2.5
21 San Antonio Spurs51232845%113.2114.4-1.3
22 Portland Trail Blazers53233043%108.8113.9-5.1
23 Chicago Bulls53223142%116.6120.3-3.8
24 Philadelphia 76ers52203238%109.5113.3-3.8
25 Brooklyn Nets52183435%105.3111.7-6.4
26 Toronto Raptors53163730%110.7116.5-5.8
27 Charlotte Hornets50133726%107.0112.3-5.3
28 Utah Jazz51123924%111.8119.1-7.3
29 New Orleans Pelicans52124023%110.2118.8-8.7
30 Washington Wizards5394417%108.2121.8-13.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2419222085
Boston Celtics18343615103
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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