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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 28 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#18
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.8/10
Below normal
5.2/10
Around normal
Position#2
Record9-2
FormLWWWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game104.0
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 111
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 111
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 111
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 111
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#23
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 111
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 111
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 111
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#7
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 111
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 111
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
no box
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#13
W
107-103
107
103
+4
96avg 107
H23/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
134-99
134
99
+35
127avg 107
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
125-124 OT
125
124
+1
119avg 107
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
125-111
125
111
+14
118avg 107
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#24
W
108-97
108
97
+11
103avg 107
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
93-109
93
109
-16
78avg 107
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
109-102
109
102
+7
102avg 107
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
119-80
119
80
+39
123avg 107
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
117-97
117
97
+20
109avg 107
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
123-101
123
101
+22
no box
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-27
24-22
33-24
24-30
33-21
33-33
39-21
29-24
26-31
30-30
30-21
31-35
44-25
34-24
21-25
26-37
24-23
31-27
22-24
31-23
29-29
21-28
23-25
20-27
28-14
34-27
25-38
22-23
40-20
30-19
26-18
23-23
25-27
33-18
33-29
26-23
30-23
32-28
29-31
32-19
218.3Avg total
116.0Scored
102.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7104.0219.7+11.782%
Season at home (5)120.0107.8227.8+12.2100%
Season away (6)112.2100.8213.0+11.367%
Last 10 (10)116.0102.3218.3+13.790%
Last 5 (5)112.297.8210.0+14.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)109.3107.9217.1+1.457%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)115.7104.8220.5+10.974%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +6.5+6.5Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +0.0+0.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +6.5+6.5Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +0.0+0.0
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#23
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#7
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#13
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H23/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
66-54
66
54
+12
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
78-49
78
49
+29
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#24
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
70-39
70
39
+31
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
58-45
58
45
+13
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A11/11
NBA
110.3Avg total
60.7Scored
49.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.851.5110.3+7.360%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.052.9110.9+5.150%-
Last 30 away (14)59.849.9109.7+9.971%-
Last 10 (10)60.749.6110.3+11.180%-
Last 5 (5)60.446.6107.0+13.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)54.052.6106.6+1.443%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)60.351.2111.5+9.165%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.030.6
57.7%
54.0%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.213.8
36.1%
35.0%41.4
🏀 Free throws22.116.2
73.3%
76.8%16.2
They take 91.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 111.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.223.6
53.4%
54.0%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.915.6
35.5%
35.0%46.8
🏀 Free throws23.017.3
75.2%
76.8%17.3
They take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Boston Celtics
WWWWLWWWWW
#18
League position
#2
-2.4
Net rating
+4.5
112.6
Offensive rating
111.2
115.0
Defensive rating
106.7
56.2%
Effective FG%
53.3%
57.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
12.5%
Turnover %
13.3%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
26.4%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.26
36.1%
3-point %
35.5%
67.1%
Assist %
64.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence112.6 · 111.2Defence115.0 · 106.7Shooting56.2% · 53.3%3-point %36.1% · 35.5%Ball care12.5% · 13.3%Off. rebounds19.3% · 26.4%Free throws0.24 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
9
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26APhiladelphia 76ers123-101
09/11/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-97
07/11/26ACharlotte Hornets119-80
05/11/26HMilwaukee Bucks109-102
03/11/26AHouston Rockets93-109
01/11/26AOrlando Magic108-97
30/10/26HChicago Bulls125-111
27/10/26HBrooklyn Nets125-124 OT
26/10/26HChicago Bulls134-99
23/10/26HNew York Knicks107-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW82%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %82%100%67%
Points / game115.7120.0112.2
Allowed / game104.0107.8100.8
Point differential+11.7+12.2+11.3
Avg total219.7227.8213.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%40%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1210283%122.1114.4+7.7
2 Boston Celtics119282%115.7104.0+11.7
3 San Antonio Spurs119282%118.7107.0+11.7
4 Oklahoma City Thunder108280%112.2104.2+8.0
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Golden State Warriors118373%120.4111.2+9.2
8 Houston Rockets118373%115.5106.4+9.1
9 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
10 Memphis Grizzlies107370%117.9110.8+7.1
11 Portland Trail Blazers96367%119.3113.8+5.6
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 New York Knicks106460%110.6102.3+8.3
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 Denver Nuggets95456%113.6112.8+0.8
16 Toronto Raptors105550%116.6113.3+3.3
17 Cleveland Cavaliers115645%116.5115.0+1.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 New Orleans Pelicans114736%117.5122.4-4.9
21 Washington Wizards114736%108.1113.4-5.3
22 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
23 Indiana Pacers113827%111.4115.2-3.8
24 Orlando Magic92722%107.0116.2-9.2
25 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
26 Brooklyn Nets102820%106.7115.7-9.0
27 Chicago Bulls91811%112.7129.3-16.7
28 Sacramento Kings101910%109.1122.4-13.3
29 Utah Jazz111109%106.5117.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks111109%106.3121.2-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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