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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 16 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 114-119
36-25 28-29 29-29 21-36
Position#17
Record21-18
FormWLLLW
Points / game119.8
Allowed / game117.8
vs
Position#5
Record24-15
FormWLWLL
Points / game116.6
Allowed / game110.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
126-111
126
111
+15
119avg 106
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
142-116
142
116
+26
136avg 106
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
147-123
147
123
+24
148avg 106
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
118-112
118
112
+6
107avg 106
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
115-125
115
125
-10
107avg 106
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
125-106
125
106
+19
114avg 106
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
94-122
94
122
-28
82avg 106
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
99-123
99
123
-24
84avg 106
A11/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
112-124
112
124
-12
113avg 106
A12/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
127-121
127
121
+6
120avg 106
H14/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-32
31-19
27-33
36-27
29-28
30-32
39-34
44-22
41-29
22-34
47-36
37-24
33-26
30-28
31-27
24-31
25-27
25-29
36-34
29-35
43-39
27-23
23-15
32-29
29-27
25-34
23-32
17-29
18-36
27-25
27-38
27-24
34-32
25-22
26-39
27-31
36-28
35-26
21-38
35-29
238.8Avg total
120.5Scored
118.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)119.8117.8237.7+2.054%
Season at home (20)122.2117.1239.2+5.170%
Season away (19)117.4118.6236.0-1.237%
Last 10 (10)120.5118.3238.8+2.260%
Last 5 (5)111.4119.2230.6-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)121.9126.9248.7-5.029%
vs Similar (14)119.3118.6237.9+0.657%
vs Weaker (9)116.2110.8227.0+5.467%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
140-122
140
122
+18
137avg 106
A27/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
108-114
108
114
-6
92avg 106
A28/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
129-119
129
119
+10
122avg 106
A31/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
120-106
120
106
+14
113avg 106
A02/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
146-115
146
115
+31
143avg 106
A04/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
115-101
115
101
+14
101avg 106
H06/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
110-114
110
114
-4
96avg 106
H08/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
125-117
125
117
+8
122avg 106
H10/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
95-100
95
100
-5
86avg 106
H11/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
96-98
96
98
-2
88avg 106
A13/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-39
47-22
36-30
29-31
30-31
33-24
22-31
23-28
31-38
28-26
40-32
30-23
28-29
34-32
26-27
32-18
42-28
29-35
42-36
33-16
31-14
23-19
31-34
30-34
35-31
23-27
24-21
28-35
37-30
31-30
29-26
28-31
26-21
29-29
20-23
20-27
24-19
32-34
21-26
19-19
229.0Avg total
118.4Scored
110.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)116.6110.1226.7+6.562%
Season at home (19)117.1110.9228.0+6.163%
Season away (20)116.2109.3225.6+6.960%
Last 10 (10)118.4110.6229.0+7.860%
Last 5 (5)108.2106.0214.2+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)110.0111.4221.4-1.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)119.1110.2229.3+9.072%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +1.0+1.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +1.0+1.0
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
63-51
63
51
+12
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-56
50
56
-6
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-62
70
62
+8
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
54-61
54
61
-7
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
45-61
45
61
-16
A11/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A12/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
71-54
71
54
+17
H14/01
NBA
117.3Avg total
59.7Scored
57.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.757.8117.5+1.960%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.556.6116.1+2.965%-
Last 30 away (13)60.159.4119.5+0.754%-
Last 10 (10)59.757.6117.3+2.150%-
Last 5 (5)59.858.4118.2+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)60.661.7122.3-1.143%-
vs Similar (14)61.156.5117.6+4.671%-
vs Weaker (9)56.956.8113.7+0.156%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
75-61
75
61
+14
A27/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
63-55
63
55
+8
A28/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
59-64
59
64
-5
A31/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
62-61
62
61
+1
A02/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
71-63
71
63
+8
A04/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
54-33
54
33
+21
H06/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
58-58
58
58
+0
H08/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H10/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
55-50
55
50
+5
H11/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
56-53
56
53
+3
A13/01
NBA
117.9Avg total
62.1Scored
55.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.755.5116.1+5.267%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.053.1113.1+6.964%-
Last 30 away (16)61.257.6118.8+3.769%-
Last 10 (10)62.155.8117.9+6.380%-
Last 5 (5)58.250.8109.0+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)57.054.2111.2+2.860%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)61.455.7117.1+5.768%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.131.4
53.1%
54.8%62.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.013.7
37.0%
35.8%41.1
🏀 Free throws20.216.6
82.2%
78.1%16.6
They take 96.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 118.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.3 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.228.1
56.0%
54.8%56.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.616.1
38.7%
35.8%48.3
🏀 Free throws17.313.9
80.3%
78.1%13.9
They take 91.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLLWLWWWW
Boston Celtics
LLWLWWWWLW
#17
League position
#5
+2.2
Net rating
+8.0
111.1
Offensive rating
122.0
108.9
Defensive rating
114.0
54.1%
Effective FG%
56.9%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
14.0%
Turnover %
11.0%
27.7%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.19
37.0%
3-point %
38.7%
64.7%
Assist %
53.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.1 · 122.0Defence108.9 · 114.0Shooting54.1% · 56.9%3-point %37.0% · 38.7%Ball care14.0% · 11.0%Off. rebounds27.7% · 29.6%Free throws0.21 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/01/26HPhoenix Suns127-121
12/01/26AOklahoma City Thunder112-124
11/01/26AIndiana Pacers99-123
07/01/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-122
04/01/26HNew Orleans Pelicans125-106
03/01/26HMinnesota Timberwolves115-125
02/01/26ADetroit Pistons118-112
30/12/25HDenver Nuggets147-123
28/12/25HIndiana Pacers142-116
27/12/25AAtlanta Hawks126-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/26AIndiana Pacers96-98
11/01/26HSan Antonio Spurs95-100
10/01/26HToronto Raptors125-117
08/01/26HDenver Nuggets110-114
06/01/26HChicago Bulls115-101
04/01/26ALos Angeles Clippers146-115
02/01/26ASacramento Kings120-106
31/12/25AUtah Jazz129-119
28/12/25APortland Trail Blazers108-114
27/12/25AIndiana Pacers140-122

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW54%
HomeWWLWW70%
AwayWWLLL37%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392019
Win %54%70%37%
Points / game119.8122.2117.4
Allowed / game117.8117.1118.6
Point differential+2.0+5.0-1.2
Avg total237.7239.2236.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%35%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%5%0%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL62%
HomeWWLWL63%
AwayLWWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391920
Win %62%63%60%
Points / game116.6117.1116.2
Allowed / game110.1110.9109.3
Point differential+6.5+6.1+6.8
Avg total226.7228.0225.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%32%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (12)33% (6)50% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3933685%121.2108.5+12.7
2 Detroit Pistons39291074%117.6111.1+6.5
3 Denver Nuggets41281368%122.6117.2+5.3
4 Minnesota Timberwolves41271466%120.3114.6+5.8
5 San Antonio Spurs38251366%117.4112.7+4.7
6 Los Angeles Lakers37241365%116.4116.0+0.4
7 Houston Rockets37231462%117.9110.8+7.1
8 Boston Celtics39241562%116.6110.1+6.5
9 Toronto Raptors41251661%114.2112.0+2.2
10 New York Knicks38231561%118.7115.1+3.6
11 Phoenix Suns40241660%115.2111.4+3.8
12 Orlando Magic39221756%116.2114.6+1.5
13 Philadelphia 76ers39221756%116.8115.6+1.2
14 Cleveland Cavaliers42231955%120.1117.5+2.6
15 Miami Heat39211854%119.8117.8+2.0
16 Golden State Warriors41221954%115.5113.2+2.3
17 Atlanta Hawks42202248%118.3118.9-0.6
18 Chicago Bulls40192148%117.5120.9-3.5
19 Portland Trail Blazers41192246%115.8118.9-3.0
20 Los Angeles Clippers40172342%112.2113.3-1.0
21 Memphis Grizzlies40172342%114.8116.2-1.4
22 Milwaukee Bucks40172342%112.7115.7-3.0
23 Dallas Mavericks41152637%112.9116.9-4.0
24 Charlotte Hornets40142635%116.1116.7-0.5
25 Utah Jazz40142635%119.3127.0-7.7
26 Brooklyn Nets38112729%108.8113.9-5.1
27 Sacramento Kings41113027%110.2120.7-10.5
28 Washington Wizards39102926%112.6123.9-11.3
29 New Orleans Pelicans43103323%114.9122.2-7.3
30 Indiana Pacers4193222%110.6118.3-7.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat36282921114
Boston Celtics25292936119
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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