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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 11 Jan 2019
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 115-99
28-24 33-19 22-29 32-27
Position#17
Record19-20
FormLWWLL
Points / game106.3
Allowed / game105.7
vs
Position#8
Record25-15
FormLWWWW
Points / game112.5
Allowed / game105.3
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#5
W
101-99
101
99
+2
91avg 97
H21/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
94-87
94
87
+7
86avg 97
H23/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
115-91
115
91
+24
109avg 97
A23/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
104-106
104
106
-2
98avg 97
H27/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
118-94
118
94
+24
115avg 97
H29/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
104-113
104
113
-9
93avg 97
H30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
117-92
117
92
+25
117avg 97
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#25
W
115-109
115
109
+6
110avg 97
H05/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
82-106
82
106
-24
65avg 97
A06/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
L
99-103
99
103
-4
88avg 97
H09/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-33
32-25
29-18
19-23
21-8
16-30
35-20
22-29
28-17
25-27
37-27
25-20
31-23
27-21
21-37
25-25
29-30
27-22
26-17
36-25
19-30
35-25
23-31
27-27
22-23
36-20
35-30
24-19
31-24
30-34
34-28
20-23
16-23
21-15
21-41
24-27
18-24
34-25
24-27
23-27
204.9Avg total
104.9Scored
100.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)106.3105.7212.1+0.649%
Season at home (21)105.3105.8211.0-0.543%
Season away (18)107.5105.7213.2+1.856%
Last 10 (10)104.9100.0204.9+4.960%
Last 5 (5)103.4104.6208.0-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)100.0104.7204.7-4.750%
vs Similar (18)104.3104.6208.9-0.244%
vs Weaker (6)108.0100.2208.2+7.867%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
107-120
107
120
-13
87avg 99
H22/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
119-103
119
103
+16
118avg 99
H23/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
W
121-114 OT
121
114
+7
104avg 99
H25/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
113-127
113
127
-14
107avg 99
A28/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
112-103
112
103
+9
110avg 99
A30/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
L
111-120
111
120
-9
105avg 99
A01/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
115-102
115
102
+13
119avg 99
H03/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
114-93
114
93
+21
114avg 99
H05/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
116-95
116
95
+21
116avg 99
H08/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
135-108
135
108
+27
139avg 99
H10/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-35
26-30
30-28
29-27
29-26
39-21
26-20
25-36
32-25
25-26
29-38
22-19
24-35
31-22
31-35
27-35
29-26
18-38
32-23
33-16
23-17
29-29
30-46
29-28
25-21
35-21
27-39
28-21
34-23
24-28
26-17
30-25
34-22
22-23
30-29
30-21
29-23
39-30
37-27
30-28
224.8Avg total
116.3Scored
108.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)112.5105.3217.8+7.162%
Season at home (20)113.8103.0216.8+10.875%
Season away (20)111.1107.7218.8+3.450%
Last 10 (10)116.3108.5224.8+7.870%
Last 5 (5)118.2103.6221.8+14.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)107.0120.0227.0-13.00%
vs Similar (8)112.2113.2225.5-1.038%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)116.8103.6220.3+13.276%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +2.7+2.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +2.7+2.7
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#5
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H21/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H23/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A23/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H27/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H29/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
58-43
58
43
+15
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#25
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H05/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A06/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H09/01
NBA
99.8Avg total
51.9Scored
47.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.451.3104.7+2.263%-
Last 30 at home (17)53.752.1105.8+1.659%-
Last 30 away (13)53.150.2103.3+2.869%-
Last 10 (10)51.947.999.8+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)52.448.6101.0+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)48.053.0101.0-5.017%-
vs Similar (18)55.151.7106.8+3.478%-
vs Weaker (6)53.848.3102.2+5.567%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
48-65
48
65
-17
H22/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H23/12
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H25/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A28/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
47-64
47
64
-17
A30/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
52-46
52
46
+6
A01/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
60-42
60
42
+18
H03/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
58-51
58
51
+7
H05/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H08/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
68-53
68
53
+15
H10/01
NBA
109.0Avg total
56.9Scored
52.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.452.6108.0+2.963%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.352.1110.4+6.281%-
Last 30 away (14)52.153.1105.2-0.943%-
Last 10 (10)56.952.1109.0+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)58.847.4106.2+11.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)48.065.0113.0-17.00%-
vs Similar (8)52.452.6105.0-0.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)57.052.0108.9+5.071%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 104.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.729.5
52.0%
51.7%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.110.3
33.1%
35.4%30.9
🏀 Free throws22.615.0
66.4%
76.6%15.0
They take 87.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 116.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.329.3
55.0%
51.7%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.413.5
38.1%
35.4%40.5
🏀 Free throws21.217.2
81.1%
76.6%17.2
They take 88.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Jan 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWWLWLWWW
Boston Celtics
WWWWLWLWWL
#17
League position
#8
+5.0
Net rating
+7.7
107.5
Offensive rating
114.4
102.4
Defensive rating
106.7
51.2%
Effective FG%
55.9%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
12.1%
Turnover %
12.0%
26.2%
Off. rebound %
19.9%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.24
33.1%
3-point %
38.1%
63.1%
Assist %
69.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence107.5 · 114.4Defence102.4 · 106.7Shooting51.2% · 55.9%3-point %33.1% · 38.1%Ball care12.1% · 12.0%Off. rebounds26.2% · 19.9%Free throws0.26 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/19HDenver Nuggets99-103
06/01/19AAtlanta Hawks82-106
05/01/19HWashington Wizards115-109
03/01/19ACleveland Cavaliers117-92
30/12/18HMinnesota Timberwolves104-113
29/12/18HCleveland Cavaliers118-94
27/12/18HToronto Raptors104-106
23/12/18AOrlando Magic115-91
23/12/18HMilwaukee Bucks94-87
21/12/18HHouston Rockets101-99
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/19HIndiana Pacers135-108
08/01/19HBrooklyn Nets116-95
05/01/19HDallas Mavericks114-93
03/01/19HMinnesota Timberwolves115-102
01/01/19ASan Antonio Spurs111-120
30/12/18AMemphis Grizzlies112-103
28/12/18AHouston Rockets113-127
25/12/18HPhiladelphia 76ers121-114 OT
23/12/18HCharlotte Hornets119-103
22/12/18HMilwaukee Bucks107-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL49%
HomeLWLWL43%
AwayWWWWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392118
Win %49%43%56%
Points / game106.3105.3107.5
Allowed / game105.7105.8105.7
Point differential+0.6-0.5+1.8
Avg total212.1211.0213.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%10%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)43% (7)50% (6)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW62%
HomeWWWWW75%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402020
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game112.5113.8111.1
Allowed / game105.3103.0107.7
Point differential+7.1+10.8+3.4
Avg total217.8216.8218.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%55%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)67% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %10%10%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks40291172%117.5108.0+9.5
2 Toronto Raptors43311272%113.2107.9+5.3
3 Denver Nuggets39271269%110.5105.5+4.9
4 Indiana Pacers41271466%108.1103.1+5.0
5 Golden State Warriors41271466%116.7111.7+5.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers42271564%114.6112.5+2.1
7 Boston Celtics40251562%112.5105.3+7.1
8 Oklahoma City Thunder40251562%111.7106.1+5.6
9 Los Angeles Clippers40241660%116.0114.1+1.9
10 Portland Trail Blazers42251760%111.5110.0+1.5
11 Houston Rockets40231757%110.6109.3+1.3
12 San Antonio Spurs42241857%111.3108.3+3.0
13 Los Angeles Lakers42231955%112.2110.8+1.4
14 Utah Jazz42212150%107.8105.5+2.3
15 Brooklyn Nets43212249%110.9111.3-0.4
16 Minnesota Timberwolves41202149%111.6111.0+0.6
17 Sacramento Kings41202149%115.0116.4-1.4
18 Miami Heat39192049%106.3105.7+0.6
19 New Orleans Pelicans42202248%117.2114.8+2.4
20 Charlotte Hornets40192148%112.9112.1+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks41192246%109.7109.3+0.4
22 Memphis Grizzlies41192246%100.9102.5-1.6
23 Detroit Pistons39172244%107.0109.8-2.8
24 Orlando Magic41172441%103.0107.2-4.3
25 Washington Wizards42172540%113.0116.5-3.6
26 Atlanta Hawks41122929%108.7117.2-8.5
27 New York Knicks41103124%107.4115.8-8.5
28 Chicago Bulls41103124%100.7110.2-9.5
29 Phoenix Suns43103323%106.2114.7-8.5
30 Cleveland Cavaliers4283419%102.5113.0-10.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat28332232115
Boston Celtics2419292799
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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