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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 04 Aug 2020
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 112-106
33-28 30-23 28-32 21-23
Position#7
Record43-27
FormWLLWL
Points / game111.9
Allowed / game108.8
vs
Position#5
Record45-24
FormLWLLW
Points / game112.8
Allowed / game107.5
USANBA· HP Field House
NBA2019-20
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#2
W
105-89
105
89
+16
100avg 107
H03/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
116-113
116
113
+3
116avg 107
H05/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
104-110
104
110
-6
96avg 107
A07/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#24
W
100-89
100
89
+11
102avg 107
A08/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
98-109
98
109
-11
95avg 107
H11/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#21
W
104-98
104
98
+6
100avg 107
H23/07
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
99-101
99
101
-2
92avg 107
A25/07
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#16
L
110-128
110
128
-18
107avg 107
H28/07
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
125-105
125
105
+20
128avg 107
A01/08
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
103-107
103
107
-4
97avg 107
H03/08
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-26
22-26
28-18
24-19
30-26
30-29
28-29
28-29
26-32
25-33
23-24
30-21
29-23
28-31
15-18
28-17
40-22
11-37
26-28
21-22
27-21
29-23
17-27
31-27
25-28
22-19
26-28
26-26
33-41
19-28
32-37
26-22
28-26
28-31
38-22
31-26
17-23
27-25
35-36
24-23
211.3Avg total
106.4Scored
104.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)111.9108.8220.7+3.061%
Season at home (35)115.5107.4222.9+8.180%
Season away (35)108.2110.3218.5-2.043%
Last 10 (10)106.4104.9211.3+1.550%
Last 5 (5)108.2107.8216.0+0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)105.089.0194.0+16.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (13)111.6112.7224.3-1.131%
vs Weaker (16)113.3109.6222.9+3.762%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#15
L
120-129 OT
120
129
-9
101avg 104
H04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
112-106
112
106
+6
102avg 104
A05/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
94-99
94
99
-5
76avg 104
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
L
104-105
104
105
-1
92avg 104
H08/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#10
W
114-111
114
111
+3
100avg 104
A10/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
L
84-98
84
98
-14
74avg 104
H24/07
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#14
W
117-103
117
103
+14
108avg 104
H26/07
NBA
Houston Rockets
#11
L
112-137
112
137
-25
100avg 104
A29/07
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#2
L
112-119
112
119
-7
97avg 104
A31/07
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
128-124
128
124
+4
122avg 104
H02/08
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-28
23-15
28-24
34-51
28-27
30-25
23-25
31-29
29-30
20-32
17-17
28-20
26-29
37-23
21-31
20-22
30-22
29-28
35-30
20-31
17-21
25-26
19-24
23-27
29-32
34-27
31-22
23-22
28-32
32-45
31-34
21-26
25-33
33-31
29-23
25-32
37-24
30-24
27-38
34-38
222.8Avg total
109.7Scored
113.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (69)112.8107.5220.3+5.365%
Season at home (35)115.1107.5222.5+7.671%
Season away (34)110.5107.6218.1+3.059%
Last 10 (10)109.7113.1222.8-3.440%
Last 5 (5)110.6116.2226.8-5.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (11)115.5115.3230.8+0.336%
vs Weaker (19)114.6108.9223.5+5.674%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: -4.1-4.1Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: -3.9-3.9
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: -4.1-4.1Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: -3.9-3.9
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#2
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H03/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
60-55
60
55
+5
H05/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
51-65
51
65
-14
A07/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#24
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A08/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
51-59
51
59
-8
H11/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#21
W
56-44
56
44
+12
H23/07
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A25/07
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#16
L
52-69
52
69
-17
H28/07
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
56-57
56
57
-1
A01/08
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H03/08
NBA
107.7Avg total
52.7Scored
55.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.454.1111.5+3.463%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.954.0111.9+3.969%-
Last 30 away (14)56.954.1111.1+2.857%-
Last 10 (10)52.755.0107.7-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)51.053.0104.0-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)53.052.0105.0+1.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)54.455.2109.6-0.846%-
vs Weaker (16)60.253.2113.4+6.975%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A05/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
49-62
49
62
-13
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
W
63-52
63
52
+11
H08/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#10
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A10/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#6
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H24/07
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#14
W
63-59
63
59
+4
H26/07
NBA
Houston Rockets
#11
L
60-77
60
77
-17
A29/07
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#2
L
58-64
58
64
-6
A31/07
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
67-48
67
48
+19
H02/08
NBA
112.9Avg total
57.5Scored
55.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.355.0111.3+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.652.3109.9+5.373%-
Last 30 away (15)55.157.6112.7-2.547%-
Last 10 (10)57.555.4112.9+2.160%-
Last 5 (5)58.059.0117.0-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (11)56.358.1114.4-1.855%-
vs Weaker (19)56.453.2109.5+3.263%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.3
54.8%
52.3%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.214.4
36.7%
35.7%43.2
🏀 Free throws23.218.6
80.2%
77.2%18.6
They take 79.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 109.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.527.5
50.5%
52.3%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.612.1
35.0%
35.7%36.3
🏀 Free throws24.818.4
74.2%
77.2%18.4
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Aug 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLLWLWLWW
Boston Celtics
WLLWLWLLWL
#7
League position
#5
+1.5
Net rating
-3.3
107.2
Offensive rating
106.3
105.7
Defensive rating
109.6
54.9%
Effective FG%
51.2%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
15.1%
Turnover %
13.5%
16.3%
Off. rebound %
23.2%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.28
36.7%
3-point %
35.0%
76.3%
Assist %
52.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence107.2 · 106.3Defence105.7 · 109.6Shooting54.9% · 51.2%3-point %36.7% · 35.0%Ball care15.1% · 13.5%Off. rebounds16.3% · 23.2%Free throws0.29 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/08/20HToronto Raptors103-107
01/08/20ADenver Nuggets125-105
28/07/20HMemphis Grizzlies110-128
25/07/20AUtah Jazz99-101
23/07/20HSacramento Kings104-98
11/03/20HCharlotte Hornets98-109
08/03/20AWashington Wizards100-89
07/03/20ANew Orleans Pelicans104-110
05/03/20HOrlando Magic116-113
03/03/20HMilwaukee Bucks105-89
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/08/20HPortland Trail Blazers128-124
31/07/20AMilwaukee Bucks112-119
29/07/20AHouston Rockets112-137
26/07/20HPhoenix Suns117-103
24/07/20HOklahoma City Thunder84-98
10/03/20AIndiana Pacers114-111
08/03/20HOklahoma City Thunder104-105
07/03/20HUtah Jazz94-99
05/03/20ACleveland Cavaliers112-106
04/03/20HBrooklyn Nets120-129 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2019-20
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL61%
HomeWLWLL80%
AwayLLWLW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703535
Win %61%80%43%
Points / game111.9115.5108.2
Allowed / game108.8107.4110.3
Point differential+3.0+8.1-2.0
Avg total220.7222.9218.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%40%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (21)67% (12)44% (9)
Overtime %13%14%11%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2019-20
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW65%
HomeLLLWW71%
AwayWWWLL59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games693534
Win %65%71%59%
Points / game112.8115.1110.5
Allowed / game107.5107.5107.6
Point differential+5.3+7.6+3.0
Avg total220.3222.5218.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%49%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (20)56% (9)27% (11)
Overtime %6%9%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks71561579%118.5108.0+10.5
2 Los Angeles Lakers69531677%113.9107.1+6.8
3 Toronto Raptors69501972%112.4106.0+6.3
4 Los Angeles Clippers70472367%115.5109.1+6.4
5 Boston Celtics69452465%112.8107.5+5.3
6 Denver Nuggets70452564%110.1107.7+2.4
7 Houston Rockets69442564%118.4114.4+4.0
8 Oklahoma City Thunder69442564%110.8107.9+2.8
9 Utah Jazz70442663%110.2107.7+2.5
10 Indiana Pacers71442762%109.6107.4+2.2
11 Miami Heat70432761%111.9108.8+3.0
12 Dallas Mavericks73433059%116.6111.1+5.5
13 Philadelphia 76ers70412959%109.7107.7+2.0
14 Brooklyn Nets70333747%110.6111.6-1.0
15 Orlando Magic71333846%107.0107.9-0.8
16 Memphis Grizzlies71333846%112.3113.6-1.3
17 New Orleans Pelicans70323846%115.6115.6-0.0
18 Phoenix Suns71314044%112.6113.5-0.9
19 San Antonio Spurs69303943%113.4115.2-1.8
20 Portland Trail Blazers71304142%113.7115.5-1.8
21 Sacramento Kings70294141%109.3111.6-2.3
22 Charlotte Hornets65234235%102.9109.6-6.8
23 Washington Wizards70244634%114.6119.0-4.4
24 Chicago Bulls65224334%106.8109.9-3.1
25 New York Knicks66214532%105.8112.3-6.5
26 Detroit Pistons66204630%107.2110.8-3.6
27 Atlanta Hawks67204730%111.8119.7-8.0
28 Minnesota Timberwolves64194530%113.2117.5-4.3
29 Cleveland Cavaliers65194629%106.9114.8-7.9
30 Golden State Warriors65155023%106.3115.0-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat33302821112
Boston Celtics28233223106
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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