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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 106-110
22-26 28-33 29-27 27-24
Position#18
Record28-24
FormWWLWW
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game110.8
vs
Position#1
Record40-11
FormWLWWW
Points / game120.8
Allowed / game110.9
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#14
L
87-105
87
105
-18
75avg 103
A21/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
96-105
96
105
-9
86avg 103
H25/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
110-143
110
143
-33
93avg 103
H26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
109-125
109
125
-16
100avg 103
A27/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
105-118
105
118
-13
95avg 103
H30/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
115-106
115
106
+9
122avg 103
H01/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
110-102
110
102
+8
107avg 103
A03/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
95-103
95
103
-8
85avg 103
H04/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
121-95
121
95
+26
122avg 103
H07/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
116-104
116
104
+12
113avg 103
H08/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-22
27-26
23-33
18-24
22-21
20-28
26-33
28-23
29-42
35-35
26-36
20-30
30-27
21-34
35-28
23-36
25-33
24-29
25-38
31-18
28-22
31-33
31-29
25-22
31-33
25-26
31-15
23-28
22-19
21-24
24-26
28-34
26-19
30-30
40-26
25-20
32-31
21-20
25-26
38-27
217.0Avg total
106.4Scored
110.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (52)110.5110.8221.2-0.354%
Season at home (27)113.3113.1226.4+0.256%
Season away (25)107.4108.2215.6-0.952%
Last 10 (10)106.4110.6217.0-4.240%
Last 5 (5)111.4102.0213.4+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)112.7127.7240.3-15.00%
vs Similar (19)108.9108.9217.8+0.158%
vs Weaker (8)107.9106.8214.6+1.162%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#19
W
116-107
116
107
+9
112avg 112
A22/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
119-110
119
110
+9
111avg 112
A23/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
143-110
143
110
+33
156avg 112
A26/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
96-115
96
115
-19
80avg 112
H28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
118-112
118
112
+6
113avg 112
H30/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
129-124
129
124
+5
123avg 112
H31/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
105-114
105
114
-9
102avg 112
H02/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
131-91
131
91
+40
130avg 112
H04/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
125-117
125
117
+8
125avg 112
H08/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
133-129
133
129
+4
129avg 112
H10/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-25
35-30
20-25
26-27
24-26
41-33
29-24
25-27
42-29
35-35
36-26
30-20
21-26
18-29
21-36
36-24
25-36
25-24
31-27
37-25
36-26
45-40
25-37
23-21
25-28
21-32
32-28
27-26
29-20
41-30
29-26
32-15
35-37
36-30
24-23
30-27
31-35
33-36
36-16
33-42
234.4Avg total
121.5Scored
112.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (51)120.8110.9231.7+9.978%
Season at home (28)122.1109.7231.8+12.489%
Season away (23)119.3112.4231.7+6.965%
Last 10 (10)121.5112.9234.4+8.680%
Last 5 (5)124.6115.0239.6+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)123.0127.0250.0-4.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)123.0112.2235.2+10.879%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +4.5+4.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +4.5+4.5
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#14
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A21/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H25/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
64-77
64
77
-13
H26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
51-61
51
61
-10
A27/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
49-62
49
62
-13
H30/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
59-55
59
55
+4
H01/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
56-59
56
59
-3
A03/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H04/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
56-49
56
49
+7
H07/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
53-51
53
51
+2
H08/02
NBA
107.3Avg total
51.9Scored
55.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.054.7109.7+0.350%-
Last 30 at home (18)56.654.3110.9+2.361%-
Last 30 away (12)52.655.2107.8-2.633%-
Last 10 (10)51.955.4107.3-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)53.451.4104.8+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)66.365.3131.7+1.067%-
vs Similar (19)54.654.1108.6+0.547%-
vs Weaker (8)51.852.1103.9-0.450%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#19
W
70-55
70
55
+15
A22/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
65-59
65
59
+6
A23/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A26/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
39-55
39
55
-16
H28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
50-60
50
60
-10
H30/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
81-66
81
66
+15
H31/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
46-60
46
60
-14
H02/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
70-50
70
50
+20
H04/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H08/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
64-71
64
71
-7
H10/02
NBA
124.0Avg total
63.3Scored
60.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.657.2119.9+5.480%-
Last 30 at home (17)61.856.1117.9+5.771%-
Last 30 away (13)63.758.7122.4+5.092%-
Last 10 (10)63.360.7124.0+2.660%-
Last 5 (5)66.462.8129.2+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)61.058.0119.0+3.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)62.757.2119.9+5.579%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.626.7
51.7%
54.4%53.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.912.0
34.4%
36.3%36.0
🏀 Free throws20.817.0
81.7%
78.2%17.0
They take 86.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 121.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.3 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.228.6
59.3%
54.4%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.716.1
36.8%
36.3%48.3
🏀 Free throws19.016.0
84.2%
78.2%16.0
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWWLLLLL
Boston Celtics
WWWLWWLWWW
#18
League position
#1
-4.3
Net rating
+8.6
109.7
Offensive rating
119.1
114.1
Defensive rating
110.5
51.7%
Effective FG%
57.4%
55.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
11.1%
Turnover %
11.5%
21.5%
Off. rebound %
23.5%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.21
34.4%
3-point %
36.8%
67.2%
Assist %
63.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence109.7 · 119.1Defence114.1 · 110.5Shooting51.7% · 57.4%3-point %34.4% · 36.8%Ball care11.1% · 11.5%Off. rebounds21.5% · 23.5%Free throws0.24 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)40% · 80%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami Heat wins
5
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/24HSan Antonio Spurs116-104
07/02/24HOrlando Magic121-95
04/02/24HLos Angeles Clippers95-103
03/02/24AWashington Wizards110-102
01/02/24HSacramento Kings115-106
30/01/24HPhoenix Suns105-118
27/01/24ANew York Knicks109-125
26/01/24HBoston Celtics110-143
25/01/24HMemphis Grizzlies96-105
21/01/24AOrlando Magic87-105
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/02/24HWashington Wizards133-129
08/02/24HAtlanta Hawks125-117
04/02/24HMemphis Grizzlies131-91
02/02/24HLos Angeles Lakers105-114
31/01/24HIndiana Pacers129-124
30/01/24HNew Orleans Pelicans118-112
28/01/24HLos Angeles Clippers96-115
26/01/24AMiami Heat143-110
23/01/24ADallas Mavericks119-110
22/01/24AHouston Rockets116-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW54%
HomeLWLWW56%
AwayWLLLW52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games522725
Win %54%56%52%
Points / game110.5113.3107.4
Allowed / game110.8113.1108.2
Point differential-0.3+0.2-0.9
Avg total221.2226.4215.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%19%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)57% (7)60% (5)
Overtime %2%0%4%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW78%
HomeWLWWW89%
AwayLWWWW65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games512823
Win %78%89%65%
Points / game120.8122.1119.3
Allowed / game110.9109.7112.4
Point differential+9.9+12.4+6.9
Avg total231.7231.8231.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%46%39%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)80% (5)38% (8)
Overtime %10%7%13%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics51401178%120.8110.9+9.9
2 Minnesota Timberwolves52361669%113.4107.1+6.3
3 Los Angeles Clippers51351669%118.4112.3+6.1
4 Cleveland Cavaliers51351669%114.9109.0+5.9
5 Denver Nuggets53361768%114.6111.0+3.6
6 Oklahoma City Thunder52351767%120.6113.7+6.9
7 Milwaukee Bucks51331865%122.5119.1+3.4
8 New York Knicks52331963%114.8109.2+5.7
9 Sacramento Kings50302060%118.7117.7+1.0
10 Philadelphia 76ers52312160%118.5113.9+4.6
11 Phoenix Suns52312160%117.7114.6+3.1
12 New Orleans Pelicans51302159%116.9111.9+4.9
13 Dallas Mavericks53302357%118.8117.9+0.9
14 Orlando Magic53292455%111.6110.8+0.8
15 Indiana Pacers52282454%124.0122.7+1.3
16 Miami Heat52282454%110.5110.8-0.3
17 Golden State Warriors50252550%119.0117.8+1.2
18 Los Angeles Lakers52262650%116.3118.0-1.6
19 Utah Jazz53262749%117.8119.9-2.1
20 Chicago Bulls53252847%111.5112.8-1.3
21 Atlanta Hawks53242945%121.7123.7-2.0
22 Houston Rockets52232944%113.5112.8+0.7
23 Brooklyn Nets52213140%113.9115.2-1.2
24 Toronto Raptors53193436%113.9117.5-3.6
25 Memphis Grizzlies53183534%107.1113.4-6.3
26 Portland Trail Blazers52153729%108.2116.4-8.2
27 Charlotte Hornets52114121%108.3120.1-11.8
28 San Antonio Spurs53104319%112.0120.9-8.9
29 Washington Wizards5294317%114.8123.9-9.2
30 Detroit Pistons5284415%113.2122.1-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat22282927106
Boston Celtics26332724110
← all games of the day
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