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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 15 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 100-96
30-21 24-20 18-31 28-24
Position-
Record-
FormLLWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position-
Record-
FormLWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANBA - Las Vegas Summer League· Cox Pavilion
Other2025
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Jul 2025
MIA100
BOS96
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#29
L
118-119
118
119
-1
111avg 104
H13/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
109-90
109
90
+19
108avg 104
A16/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
123-114 OT
123
114
+9
122avg 104
A18/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
100-121
100
121
-21
93avg 104
A20/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
112-121
112
121
-9
108avg 104
A23/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
87-124
87
124
-37
72avg 104
H26/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
83-138
83
138
-55
66avg 104
H28/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#4
W
82-69
82
69
+13
92avg 104
H05/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
83-103
83
103
-20
70avg 104
H06/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
93-79
93
79
+14
92avg 104
A08/07
California Classic
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-30
32-36
26-28
32-25
39-28
32-19
17-27
21-16
33-24
29-29
24-24
20-29
24-31
30-31
25-25
21-34
24-25
27-43
29-25
32-28
20-33
22-29
22-26
23-36
17-43
16-29
30-39
20-27
12-13
20-16
24-22
26-18
20-26
18-25
24-25
21-27
23-22
25-14
22-21
23-22
206.8Avg total
99.0Scored
107.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)99.0107.8206.8-8.840%
Last 5 (5)85.6102.6188.2-17.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)99.8115.7215.4-15.98%
vs Similar (9)110.8108.3219.1+2.444%
vs Weaker (9)113.997.2211.1+16.778%
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#15
W
109-100
109
100
+9
99avg 108
H23/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
93-95
93
95
-2
83avg 108
A25/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
107-98
107
98
+9
100avg 108
A27/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
120-89
120
89
+31
123avg 108
H30/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
105-108 OT
105
108
-3
91avg 108
H05/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
90-91
90
91
-1
74avg 108
H07/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
115-93
115
93
+22
109avg 108
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
113-121
113
121
-8
96avg 108
A12/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
127-102
127
102
+25
123avg 108
H14/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
81-119
81
119
-38
63avg 108
A17/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-21
27-26
31-24
28-29
27-31
32-18
11-24
23-22
32-29
21-19
26-27
28-23
23-27
24-22
36-13
37-27
26-25
35-20
23-30
16-25
24-13
26-28
23-20
17-30
36-20
35-26
25-24
19-23
39-28
23-23
23-37
28-33
30-32
29-27
32-17
36-26
20-26
17-38
20-28
24-27
207.6Avg total
106.0Scored
101.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)106.0101.6207.6+4.450%
Last 5 (5)105.2105.2210.4+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)112.0118.0230.0-6.00%
vs Weaker (29)110.7101.6212.3+9.176%

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.5-3.5Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -0.9-0.9
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.5-3.5Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -0.9-0.9
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#29
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H13/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
71-47
71
47
+24
A16/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
62-53
62
53
+9
A18/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
54-62
54
62
-8
A20/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A23/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
42-62
42
62
-20
H26/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
33-72
33
72
-39
H28/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#4
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H05/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
38-51
38
51
-13
H06/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A08/07
California Classic
103.7Avg total
49.1Scored
54.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.952.7106.7+1.260%-
Last 30 at home (18)51.852.7104.6-0.956%-
Last 30 away (12)57.152.8109.8+4.367%-
Last 10 (10)49.154.6103.7-5.540%-
Last 5 (5)38.650.088.6-11.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)49.956.5106.4-6.633%-
vs Similar (9)56.951.9108.8+5.067%-
vs Weaker (9)56.348.6104.9+7.889%-
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#15
W
50-47
50
47
+3
H23/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A25/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A27/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H30/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
61-45
61
45
+16
H05/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H07/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
71-46
71
46
+25
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A12/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
D
59-59
59
59
+0
H14/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
37-64
37
64
-27
A17/05
NBA
104.8Avg total
54.9Scored
49.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.851.0106.8+4.867%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.549.6103.1+3.960%-
Last 30 away (15)58.152.4110.5+5.773%-
Last 10 (10)54.949.9104.8+5.070%-
Last 5 (5)55.852.2108.0+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)60.063.0123.0-3.00%-
vs Weaker (29)55.750.6106.2+5.169%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 98.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.825.6
55.9%
50.3%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.311.5
33.5%
31.5%34.5
🏀 Free throws17.813.1
73.6%
72.4%13.1
They take 80.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.522.7
52.2%
50.3%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.614.0
35.4%
31.5%42.0
🏀 Free throws23.118.6
80.5%
72.4%18.6
They take 83.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Jul 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWLLLLWWL
Boston Celtics
LWLWLLWWLW
-9.1
Net rating
+4.6
104.6
Offensive rating
111.7
113.7
Defensive rating
107.0
53.5%
Effective FG%
52.6%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
16.5%
Turnover %
12.9%
23.2%
Off. rebound %
26.1%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.28
33.5%
3-point %
35.4%
60.1%
Assist %
54.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence104.6 · 111.7Defence113.7 · 107.0Shooting53.5% · 52.6%3-point %33.5% · 35.4%Ball care16.5% · 12.9%Off. rebounds23.2% · 26.1%Free throws0.22 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/07/25AGolden State Warriors93-79
06/07/25HLos Angeles Lakers83-103
05/07/25HSan Antonio Spurs82-69
28/04/25HCleveland Cavaliers83-138
26/04/25HCleveland Cavaliers87-124
23/04/25ACleveland Cavaliers112-121
20/04/25ACleveland Cavaliers100-121
18/04/25AAtlanta Hawks123-114 OT
16/04/25AChicago Bulls109-90
13/04/25HWashington Wizards118-119
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/05/25ANew York Knicks81-119
14/05/25HNew York Knicks127-102
12/05/25ANew York Knicks113-121
10/05/25ANew York Knicks115-93
07/05/25HNew York Knicks90-91
05/05/25HNew York Knicks105-108 OT
30/04/25HOrlando Magic120-89
27/04/25AOrlando Magic107-98
25/04/25AOrlando Magic93-95
23/04/25HOrlando Magic109-100

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Boston Celtics
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat30241828100
Boston Celtics2120312496
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