PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 29 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 02:30
Scheduled
Position#29
Record1-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game109.7
Allowed / game122.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.5/10
Below normal
3.8/10
Below normal
Position#21
Record3-6
FormWWLWL
Points / game116.0
Allowed / game122.6
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
106-126
106
126
-20
89avg 99
A12/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#19
L
116-128
116
128
-12
107avg 99
A21/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
L
125-132
125
132
-7
116avg 99
H23/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
116-127
116
127
-11
111avg 99
A24/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
110-102
110
102
+8
103avg 99
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
100-132
100
132
-32
74avg 99
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
L
111-136
111
136
-25
88avg 99
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
100-112
100
112
-12
84avg 99
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#4
L
102-109
102
109
-7
92avg 99
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#14
L
107-121
107
121
-14
94avg 99
H07/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-29
36-29
16-38
28-30
23-25
33-26
37-39
23-38
32-17
30-44
42-41
21-30
25-34
35-30
27-33
29-30
31-29
19-32
34-24
26-17
21-23
14-34
34-38
31-37
25-24
21-48
30-37
35-27
18-29
29-19
29-32
24-32
14-28
27-34
38-25
23-22
29-24
31-27
27-38
20-32
231.8Avg total
109.3Scored
122.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)109.7122.1231.8-12.411%
Season at home (5)110.6124.6235.2-14.020%
Season away (4)108.5119.0227.5-10.50%
Last 10 (10)109.3122.5231.8-13.210%
Last 5 (5)104.0122.0226.0-18.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)105.9123.5229.3-17.69%
vs Similar (7)116.0109.7225.7+6.371%
vs Weaker (1)125.0132.0257.0-7.00%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
126-127 OT
126
127
-1
119avg 114
A14/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
106-131
106
131
-25
98avg 114
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#7
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 114
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 114
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 114
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 114
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 114
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 114
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 114
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 114
A06/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-26
30-26
29-37
31-25
32-34
27-35
22-30
25-32
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
240.0Avg total
117.0Scored
123.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)116.0122.6238.6-6.633%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (5)114.6121.2235.8-6.640%
Last 10 (10)117.0123.0240.0-6.030%
Last 5 (5)121.6123.2244.8-1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar (14)121.9123.5245.4-1.643%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)129.7121.0250.7+8.771%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: +2.2+2.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: +2.2+2.2
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
62-58
62
58
+4
A12/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#19
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A21/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
62-61
62
61
+1
H23/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
60-64
60
64
-4
A24/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H27/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
35-57
35
57
-22
H29/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#15
L
46-72
46
72
-26
H01/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A03/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#4
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A05/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#14
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H07/11
NBA
110.4Avg total
51.9Scored
58.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.159.8112.9-6.737%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.259.8115.0-4.650%-
Last 30 away (14)50.759.9110.6-9.121%-
Last 10 (10)51.958.5110.4-6.640%-
Last 5 (5)45.858.0103.8-12.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)51.761.4113.1-9.727%-
vs Similar (7)56.154.7110.9+1.457%-
vs Weaker (1)62.061.0123.0+1.0100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
54-52
54
52
+2
A14/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#7
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#20
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
121.1Avg total
59.0Scored
62.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.962.6123.5-1.740%-
Last 30 at home (15)62.362.0124.3+0.353%-
Last 30 away (15)59.563.2122.7-3.727%-
Last 10 (10)59.062.1121.1-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)62.863.2126.0-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar (14)57.962.6120.4-4.736%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)68.160.4128.6+7.771%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 113.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers49.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.824.6
56.2%
54.0%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.416.4
37.8%
35.0%49.2
🏀 Free throws20.914.7
70.3%
76.6%14.7
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.030.6
57.7%
54.0%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.213.8
36.1%
35.0%41.4
🏀 Free throws22.116.2
73.3%
76.6%16.2
They take 91.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLLLWLLLL
Miami Heat
LWLWWLLLLL
#29
League position
#21
-6.8
Net rating
-2.4
105.9
Offensive rating
112.6
112.7
Defensive rating
115.0
56.4%
Effective FG%
56.2%
55.4%
Opp. effective FG%
57.0%
15.8%
Turnover %
12.5%
15.2%
Off. rebound %
19.3%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.24
37.8%
3-point %
36.1%
66.1%
Assist %
67.1%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence105.9 · 112.6Defence112.7 · 115.0Shooting56.4% · 56.2%3-point %37.8% · 36.1%Ball care15.8% · 12.5%Off. rebounds15.2% · 19.3%Free throws0.24 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
3
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HToronto Raptors107-121
05/11/26ABoston Celtics102-109
03/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves100-112
01/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers111-136
29/10/26HHouston Rockets100-132
27/10/26HIndiana Pacers110-102
24/10/26APhiladelphia 76ers116-127
23/10/26HChicago Bulls125-132
21/10/26AWashington Wizards116-128
12/04/26APhiladelphia 76ers106-126
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
21/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves106-131
14/04/26ACharlotte Hornets126-127 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL11%
HomeLWLLL20%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %11%20%0%
Points / game109.7110.6108.5
Allowed / game122.1124.6119.0
Point differential-12.4-14.0-10.5
Avg total231.8235.2227.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL33%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %33%25%40%
Points / game116.0117.8114.6
Allowed / game122.6124.2121.2
Point differential-6.6-6.5-6.6
Avg total238.6242.0235.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %11%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers108280%122.0114.3+7.7
2 Philadelphia 76ers108280%109.4106.6+2.8
3 Houston Rockets97278%117.9107.6+10.3
4 Boston Celtics97278%114.8105.1+9.7
5 San Antonio Spurs97278%117.7108.7+9.0
6 Oklahoma City Thunder97278%112.0107.4+4.6
7 Detroit Pistons86275%111.1101.8+9.4
8 Portland Trail Blazers86275%121.4112.4+9.0
9 Minnesota Timberwolves107370%118.4107.7+10.7
10 Memphis Grizzlies96367%117.9111.8+6.1
11 Golden State Warriors96367%117.8113.0+4.8
12 Atlanta Hawks106460%118.1114.9+3.2
13 Denver Nuggets74357%115.4114.7+0.7
14 Toronto Raptors95456%118.2112.8+5.4
15 Cleveland Cavaliers95456%119.2114.7+4.6
16 Dallas Mavericks95456%112.1110.9+1.2
17 New York Knicks84450%110.0105.1+4.9
18 New Orleans Pelicans94544%120.2118.8+1.4
19 Washington Wizards94544%111.4112.3-0.9
20 Indiana Pacers93633%111.2114.2-3.0
21 Miami Heat93633%116.0122.6-6.6
22 Charlotte Hornets103730%96.3110.2-13.9
23 Phoenix Suns72529%113.9121.4-7.6
24 Brooklyn Nets82625%106.6112.9-6.2
25 Orlando Magic82625%105.5115.0-9.5
26 Los Angeles Clippers81712%109.1115.6-6.5
27 Chicago Bulls81712%111.6129.6-18.0
28 Utah Jazz91811%106.9118.2-11.3
29 Milwaukee Bucks91811%109.7122.1-12.4
30 Sacramento Kings91811%109.2123.3-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.