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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 31 Oct 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 122-114
28-28 34-24 35-21 25-41
Position#8
Record1-1
FormLLLWL
Points / game114.0
Allowed / game122.0
vs
Position#18
Record1-2
FormWLWLL
Points / game101.3
Allowed / game109.0
USANBA· Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
105-92
105
92
+13
100avg 109
H05/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
114-137
114
137
-23
106avg 109
H08/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
105-121
105
121
-16
100avg 109
A09/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
117-130
117
130
-13
108avg 109
H16/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
138-122
138
122
+16
136avg 109
H20/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
99-121
99
121
-22
87avg 109
A22/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
114-119
114
119
-5
104avg 109
A24/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
126-128 OT
126
128
-2
114avg 109
H27/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
118-117
118
117
+1
109avg 109
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
110-127
110
127
-17
99avg 109
H29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-21
21-30
30-25
26-16
31-36
41-35
15-37
27-29
26-35
29-32
24-28
26-26
24-33
31-35
33-34
29-28
35-28
46-27
37-30
20-37
21-29
32-37
26-28
20-27
33-28
24-22
32-28
25-41
33-36
36-27
33-23
16-32
30-23
33-31
25-31
30-32
25-31
22-37
33-33
30-26
236.0Avg total
114.6Scored
121.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)114.0122.0236.0-8.050%
Season at home (2)114.0122.0236.0-8.050%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)114.6121.4236.0-6.830%
Last 5 (5)113.4122.4235.8-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)115.5118.8234.3-3.250%
vs Weaker (10)131.2120.8252.0+10.480%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
93-104
93
104
-11
81avg 100
A02/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
W
111-108
111
108
+3
106avg 100
A05/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
94-109
94
109
-15
72avg 100
H08/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
95-108
95
108
-13
88avg 100
H10/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
89-94
89
94
-5
69avg 100
A13/06
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#5
W
107-90
107
90
+17
no box
A03/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#2
L
83-95
83
95
-12
no box
A06/07
California Classic
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
103-102
103
102
+1
91avg 100
H25/10
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
111-119
111
119
-8
102avg 100
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
90-106
90
106
-16
78avg 100
A29/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-29
22-30
21-25
30-20
26-23
25-34
24-26
36-25
24-24
24-29
20-29
26-27
21-20
30-35
22-31
22-22
24-22
27-22
20-26
18-24
22-16
36-24
26-27
23-23
14-21
26-26
30-21
13-27
26-29
32-18
25-28
20-27
28-25
27-35
33-27
23-32
31-26
22-29
20-25
17-26
201.1Avg total
97.6Scored
103.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)101.3109.0210.3-7.733%
Season at home (1)103.0102.0205.0+1.0100%
Season away (2)100.5112.5213.0-12.00%
Last 10 (10)97.6103.5201.1-5.930%
Last 5 (5)98.8102.4201.2-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)102.0105.3207.3-3.333%
vs Similar ◀ (13)111.8108.0219.8+3.869%
vs Weaker (2)105.096.0201.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: -4.5-4.5Q4: -2.5-2.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: -4.5-4.5Q4: -2.5-2.5
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H05/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
W
72-71
72
71
+1
H08/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
55-67
55
67
-12
A09/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
55-68
55
68
-13
H16/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
81-55
81
55
+26
H20/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
53-66
53
66
-13
A22/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A24/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H27/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
47-68
47
68
-21
H29/10
NBA
121.4Avg total
60.1Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.358.3119.6+3.170%-
Last 30 at home (16)62.058.2120.2+3.875%-
Last 30 away (14)60.658.3118.9+2.364%-
Last 10 (10)60.161.3121.4-1.250%-
Last 5 (5)57.860.2118.0-2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)59.058.0117.0+1.060%-
vs Weaker (10)65.958.8124.7+7.190%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A02/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A05/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
48-53
48
53
-5
H08/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
51-55
51
55
-4
H10/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A13/06
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#5
W
58-40
58
40
+18
A03/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A06/07
California Classic
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H25/10
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
55-60
55
60
-5
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
53-55
53
55
-2
A29/10
NBA
102.4Avg total
50.7Scored
51.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.453.7107.0-0.347%-
Last 30 at home (13)54.451.5105.8+2.962%-
Last 30 away (17)52.655.4107.9-2.835%-
Last 10 (10)50.751.7102.4-1.030%-
Last 5 (5)52.849.8102.6+3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)51.253.4104.6-2.233%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)55.255.5110.7-0.454%-
vs Weaker (2)58.043.5101.5+14.5100%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 114.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.8 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.826.3
53.9%
54.4%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.915.6
38.1%
36.3%46.8
🏀 Free throws20.615.2
73.8%
78.2%15.2
They take 89.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 99.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.724.2
42.7%
54.4%48.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.012.2
38.1%
36.3%36.6
🏀 Free throws17.514.2
81.1%
78.2%14.2
They take 88.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Oct 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LWLLLWLLLW
Miami Heat
LLWLWLLLWL
#8
League position
#18
-6.5
Net rating
-4.9
110.4
Offensive rating
104.9
116.9
Defensive rating
109.7
55.4%
Effective FG%
47.9%
59.7%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
14.6%
Turnover %
10.0%
22.8%
Off. rebound %
22.5%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.20
38.1%
3-point %
38.1%
62.1%
Assist %
64.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence110.4 · 104.9Defence116.9 · 109.7Shooting55.4% · 47.9%3-point %38.1% · 38.1%Ball care14.6% · 10.0%Off. rebounds22.8% · 22.5%Free throws0.23 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Milwaukee Bucks wins
6
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/23HAtlanta Hawks110-127
26/10/23HPhiladelphia 76ers118-117
27/04/23HMiami Heat126-128 OT
24/04/23AMiami Heat114-119
22/04/23AMiami Heat99-121
20/04/23HMiami Heat138-122
16/04/23HMiami Heat117-130
09/04/23AToronto Raptors105-121
08/04/23HMemphis Grizzlies114-137
05/04/23HChicago Bulls105-92
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/23AMinnesota Timberwolves90-106
27/10/23ABoston Celtics111-119
25/10/23HDetroit Pistons103-102
06/07/23ASacramento Kings83-95
03/07/23ALos Angeles Lakers107-90
13/06/23ADenver Nuggets89-94
10/06/23HDenver Nuggets95-108
08/06/23HDenver Nuggets94-109
05/06/23ADenver Nuggets111-108
02/06/23ADenver Nuggets93-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeWL50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game114.0114.0-
Allowed / game122.0122.0-
Point differential-8.0-8.0-
Avg total236.0236.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game101.3103.0100.5
Allowed / game109.0102.0112.5
Point differential-7.7+1.0-12.0
Avg total210.3205.0213.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Orlando Magic220100%109.091.5+17.5
2 Denver Nuggets330100%118.3102.0+16.3
3 Boston Celtics330100%117.7107.3+10.3
4 New Orleans Pelicans220100%103.595.5+8.0
5 Dallas Mavericks220100%125.5119.5+6.0
6 Los Angeles Clippers32167%121.3104.7+16.7
7 Philadelphia 76ers32167%119.0107.7+11.3
8 Indiana Pacers32167%124.3115.0+9.3
9 Detroit Pistons32167%110.3101.3+9.0
10 Phoenix Suns32167%109.7102.7+7.0
11 Golden State Warriors32167%110.7105.7+5.0
12 Sacramento Kings32167%125.3121.0+4.3
13 Oklahoma City Thunder32167%109.0112.3-3.3
14 Atlanta Hawks42250%121.0116.2+4.8
15 Chicago Bulls42250%105.5112.5-7.0
16 Milwaukee Bucks21150%114.0122.0-8.0
17 Brooklyn Nets31233%122.0120.0+2.0
18 Minnesota Timberwolves31233%104.3104.7-0.3
19 New York Knicks31233%105.7108.0-2.3
20 Los Angeles Lakers31233%111.3115.3-4.0
21 Cleveland Cavaliers31233%110.7115.3-4.7
22 Charlotte Hornets31233%112.0118.0-6.0
23 Miami Heat31233%101.3109.0-7.7
24 Washington Wizards31233%113.3125.0-11.7
25 Utah Jazz31233%112.7124.7-12.0
26 San Antonio Spurs31233%109.3123.7-14.3
27 Toronto Raptors41325%99.5102.8-3.2
28 Portland Trail Blazers41325%101.2110.5-9.2
29 Memphis Grizzlies3030%104.7110.7-6.0
30 Houston Rockets3030%101.0116.0-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks28343525122
Miami Heat28242141114
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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