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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 26 Oct 2019
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 126-131 (OT)
33-29 37-24 23-29 28-39 5-10
Position#1
Record6-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game120.5
Allowed / game106.2
vs
Position#6
Record5-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game115.8
Allowed / game102.2
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2019-20
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
18 Jul 2025
MIL92
MIA93
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
13 Jul 2023
MIL72
MIA91
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
89-83
89
83
+6
A06/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Minnesota Timberwolves
#1
L
91-100
91
100
-9
A09/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
China
#31
W
84-67
84
67
+17
A11/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Portland Trail Blazers
#20
L
84-99
84
99
-15
H13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
122-112
122
112
+10
A08/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#11
W
133-99
133
99
+34
H10/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
W
118-111
118
111
+7
A12/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#24
W
115-108
115
108
+7
A13/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
118-96
118
96
+22
H18/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#10
W
117-111
117
111
+6
A25/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
17-26
21-15
27-15
16-26
22-21
24-25
29-28
22-19
17-21
27-13
18-14
24-27
26-16
17-33
17-23
28-27
35-33
34-26
25-26
34-23
30-23
37-22
32-31
31-24
30-31
38-27
19-29
27-26
28-26
29-31
31-25
23-22
33-20
33-31
29-23
23-30
27-36
28-21
39-24
205.7Avg total
107.1Scored
98.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)120.5106.2226.7+14.3100%
Season at home (2)125.597.5223.0+28.0100%
Season away (4)118.0110.5228.5+7.5100%
Last 10 (10)107.198.6205.7+8.580%
Last 5 (5)120.2105.0225.2+15.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)91.0100.0191.0-9.00%
vs Similar (5)103.6100.6204.2+3.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)118.6107.9226.5+10.779%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#23
W
93-81
93
81
+12
A08/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Orlando Magic
#16
W
96-92
96
92
+4
H09/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Minnesota Timberwolves
#1
L
87-90
87
90
-3
A10/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
L
100-101 OT
100
101
-1
A13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
San Antonio Spurs
#18
W
107-89
107
89
+18
H08/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#23
W
108-94
108
94
+14
A09/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#28
W
120-87
120
87
+33
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#19
W
107-98
107
98
+9
A17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#10
L
133-144
133
144
-11
H19/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
120-101
120
101
+19
H23/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-17
29-17
18-20
27-27
22-24
26-28
22-16
26-24
34-24
19-13
17-30
17-23
15-27
24-19
31-21
28-31
22-23
31-23
28-18
26-25
31-23
32-19
27-21
18-31
32-34
25-15
34-20
29-18
27-26
23-23
33-26
24-23
35-38
35-35
25-38
38-33
24-32
30-28
29-24
37-17
204.8Avg total
107.1Scored
97.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)115.8102.2218.0+13.783%
Season at home (4)120.0105.2225.2+14.875%
Season away (2)107.596.0203.5+11.5100%
Last 10 (10)107.197.7204.8+9.470%
Last 5 (5)117.6104.8222.4+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)98.0115.3213.3-17.30%
vs Similar (15)106.4103.5209.9+2.947%
vs Weaker (12)101.885.7187.5+16.2100%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: +1.8+1.8
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
41-53
41
53
-12
A06/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Minnesota Timberwolves
#1
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A09/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
China
#31
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A11/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Portland Trail Blazers
#20
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A08/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#11
W
64-46
64
46
+18
H10/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
W
61-55
61
55
+6
A12/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#24
W
55-52
55
52
+3
A13/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#27
W
56-42
56
42
+14
H18/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#10
L
50-66
50
66
-16
A25/10
NBA
102.1Avg total
51.7Scored
50.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.753.1108.8+2.550%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.450.1108.6+8.364%-
Last 30 away (16)53.255.8109.0-2.538%-
Last 10 (10)51.750.4102.1+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)57.252.2109.4+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)38.047.085.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (5)51.450.4101.8+1.040%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)57.354.0111.2+3.354%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#23
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A08/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Orlando Magic
#16
L
48-52
48
52
-4
H09/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
Minnesota Timberwolves
#1
W
53-37
53
37
+16
A10/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A13/07
NBA - Las Vegas Summer League
San Antonio Spurs
#18
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H08/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#23
W
63-42
63
42
+21
A09/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#28
W
57-49
57
49
+8
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#19
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#10
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H19/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
L
54-60
54
60
-6
H23/10
NBA
102.3Avg total
53.5Scored
48.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.049.2102.2+3.853%-
Last 30 at home (13)54.348.5102.8+5.854%-
Last 30 away (17)52.049.7101.7+2.353%-
Last 10 (10)53.548.8102.3+4.760%-
Last 5 (5)58.854.6113.4+4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)56.751.7108.3+5.067%-
vs Similar (15)53.352.0105.3+1.347%-
vs Weaker (12)51.745.196.8+6.658%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 118.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.628.2
58.0%
52.3%56.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.814.1
33.7%
35.7%42.3
🏀 Free throws26.119.7
75.5%
77.2%19.7
They take 90.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 112.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.4 points a game
51%
33%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.031.2
53.8%
52.3%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.711.6
35.5%
35.7%34.8
🏀 Free throws19.415.3
78.9%
77.2%15.3
They take 90.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Oct 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWWWWLWLW
Miami Heat
WLWWWWLLWW
#1
League position
#6
+12.2
Net rating
+6.7
106.8
Offensive rating
104.7
94.6
Defensive rating
98.0
54.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
44.7%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
15.5%
Turnover %
16.2%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
20.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.21
33.7%
3-point %
35.5%
62.2%
Assist %
57.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.8 · 104.7Defence94.6 · 98.0Shooting54.6% · 53.6%3-point %33.7% · 35.5%Ball care15.5% · 16.2%Off. rebounds19.3% · 20.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Milwaukee Bucks wins
6
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/19AHouston Rockets117-111
18/10/19HMinnesota Timberwolves118-96
13/10/19AWashington Wizards115-108
12/10/19ADallas Mavericks118-111
10/10/19HUtah Jazz133-99
08/10/19AChicago Bulls122-112
13/07/19HPortland Trail Blazers84-99
11/07/19AChina84-67
09/07/19AMinnesota Timberwolves91-100
06/07/19AAtlanta Hawks89-83
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/10/19HMemphis Grizzlies120-101
19/10/19HHouston Rockets133-144
17/10/19AOrlando Magic107-98
14/10/19HAtlanta Hawks120-87
09/10/19ACharlotte Hornets108-94
08/10/19HSan Antonio Spurs107-89
13/07/19ANew Orleans Pelicans100-101 OT
10/07/19AMinnesota Timberwolves87-90
09/07/19HOrlando Magic96-92
08/07/19AUtah Jazz93-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2019-20
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game120.5125.5118.0
Allowed / game106.297.5110.5
Point differential+14.3+28.0+7.5
Avg total226.7223.0228.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2019-20
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW83%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %83%75%100%
Points / game115.8120.0107.5
Allowed / game102.2105.296.0
Point differential+13.7+14.8+11.5
Avg total218.0225.2203.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%75%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks660100%120.5106.2+14.3
2 Denver Nuggets660100%108.299.7+8.5
3 Boston Celtics65183%108.093.5+14.5
4 Miami Heat65183%115.8102.2+13.7
5 Philadelphia 76ers54180%106.494.4+12.0
6 New Orleans Pelicans75271%123.7120.6+3.1
7 Indiana Pacers53260%117.6112.4+5.2
8 Brooklyn Nets53260%110.2109.4+0.8
9 Dallas Mavericks74357%110.3104.9+5.4
10 Orlando Magic74357%99.798.0+1.7
11 Detroit Pistons74357%106.4111.4-5.0
12 Phoenix Suns63350%111.0106.5+4.5
13 Washington Wizards63350%105.2100.7+4.5
14 Los Angeles Lakers84450%105.1102.4+2.8
15 Houston Rockets63350%120.8119.8+1.0
16 Toronto Raptors63350%115.8115.5+0.3
17 Minnesota Timberwolves63350%115.3118.0-2.7
18 San Antonio Spurs63350%107.3111.8-4.5
19 Chicago Bulls73443%110.7109.4+1.3
20 Los Angeles Clippers52340%105.4109.2-3.8
21 Portland Trail Blazers62433%110.7114.5-3.8
22 Sacramento Kings62433%112.8118.5-5.7
23 Golden State Warriors62433%113.5120.0-6.5
24 Atlanta Hawks62433%99.0109.5-10.5
25 Charlotte Hornets72529%106.0110.9-4.9
26 Oklahoma City Thunder51420%97.6106.4-8.8
27 Memphis Grizzlies51420%103.4114.6-11.2
28 New York Knicks61517%105.8110.7-4.8
29 Utah Jazz61517%107.5117.5-10.0
30 Cleveland Cavaliers4040%89.2109.8-20.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Milwaukee Bucks333723285126
Miami Heat2924293910131
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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