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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 14 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 97-123
28-40 24-29 24-29 21-25
Position#8
Record34-18
FormLLLWW
Points / game122.3
Allowed / game118.6
Milwaukee Bucks
USA
vs
Miami Heat 🏆
USA
Position#18
Record28-25
FormWLWWL
Points / game110.4
Allowed / game110.8
USANBA· Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
100-112
100
112
-12
90avg 114
H27/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
141-117
141
117
+24
139avg 114
H28/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
L
107-113
107
113
-6
97avg 114
A30/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
116-119
116
119
-3
106avg 114
A01/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
129-117
129
117
+12
126avg 114
A04/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
108-123
108
123
-15
96avg 114
A05/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
106-114
106
114
-8
93avg 114
A07/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
105-129
105
129
-24
104avg 114
H09/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
120-84
120
84
+36
114avg 114
H10/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
W
112-95
112
95
+17
114avg 114
H13/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-30
29-24
20-26
23-32
36-32
39-31
37-24
29-30
26-25
30-31
19-26
32-31
38-37
27-30
26-29
25-23
20-44
40-21
33-27
36-25
26-32
37-21
32-30
13-40
23-22
26-26
24-31
33-35
26-30
27-33
22-39
30-27
31-17
35-21
33-25
21-21
28-23
32-21
31-19
21-32
226.7Avg total
114.4Scored
112.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (52)122.3118.6241.0+3.765%
Season at home (27)123.6116.9240.5+6.781%
Season away (25)120.9120.5241.4+0.448%
Last 10 (10)114.4112.3226.7+2.140%
Last 5 (5)110.2109.0219.2+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)135.0102.0237.0+33.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (19)119.0119.4238.4-0.453%
vs Weaker (10)127.0118.2245.2+8.870%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
96-105
96
105
-9
86avg 103
H25/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
110-143
110
143
-33
93avg 103
H26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
109-125
109
125
-16
100avg 103
A27/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
105-118
105
118
-13
95avg 103
H30/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
115-106
115
106
+9
122avg 103
H01/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
110-102
110
102
+8
107avg 103
A03/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
95-103
95
103
-8
85avg 103
H04/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
121-95
121
95
+26
122avg 103
H07/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
116-104
116
104
+12
113avg 103
H08/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
106-110
106
110
-4
91avg 103
H11/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
20-28
26-33
28-23
29-42
35-35
26-36
20-30
30-27
21-34
35-28
23-36
25-33
24-29
25-38
31-18
28-22
31-33
31-29
25-22
31-33
25-26
31-15
23-28
22-19
21-24
24-26
28-34
26-19
30-30
40-26
25-20
32-31
21-20
25-26
38-27
22-26
28-33
29-27
27-24
219.4Avg total
108.3Scored
111.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (53)110.4110.8221.1-0.453%
Season at home (28)113.1113.0226.1+0.154%
Season away (25)107.4108.2215.6-0.952%
Last 10 (10)108.3111.1219.4-2.840%
Last 5 (5)109.6102.8212.4+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)111.0123.2234.2-12.20%
vs Similar ◀ (19)108.9108.9217.8+0.158%
vs Weaker (7)106.7105.7212.4+1.057%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +6.3+6.3Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +0.6+0.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +6.3+6.3Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +0.6+0.6
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
57-54
57
54
+3
H27/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H28/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
D
56-56
56
56
+0
A30/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
65-67
65
67
-2
A01/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
60-65
60
65
-5
A04/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
63-53
63
53
+10
A05/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A07/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
53-63
53
63
-10
H09/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
66-38
66
38
+28
H10/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
W
60-44
60
44
+16
H13/02
NBA
115.5Avg total
60.4Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.957.9118.8+3.067%-
Last 30 at home (15)64.055.8119.8+8.280%-
Last 30 away (15)57.960.0117.9-2.153%-
Last 10 (10)60.455.1115.5+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)58.249.2107.4+9.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)75.038.0113.0+37.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)58.058.3116.3-0.358%-
vs Weaker (10)65.159.1124.2+6.080%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H25/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
64-77
64
77
-13
H26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
51-61
51
61
-10
A27/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
49-62
49
62
-13
H30/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
59-55
59
55
+4
H01/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
56-59
56
59
-3
A03/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H04/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
56-49
56
49
+7
H07/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
53-51
53
51
+2
H08/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H11/02
NBA
108.8Avg total
52.3Scored
56.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.755.0109.7-0.347%-
Last 30 at home (19)56.354.6110.8+1.758%-
Last 30 away (11)52.055.6107.6-3.627%-
Last 10 (10)52.356.5108.8-4.230%-
Last 5 (5)51.652.2103.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)62.263.8126.0-1.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)54.654.1108.6+0.547%-
vs Weaker (7)50.752.4103.1-1.743%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 114.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.226.8
55.6%
54.4%53.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.315.0
38.2%
36.3%45.0
🏀 Free throws22.515.8
70.2%
78.2%15.8
They take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.027.7
52.3%
54.4%55.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.212.0
34.1%
36.3%36.0
🏀 Free throws20.516.9
82.4%
78.2%16.9
They take 88.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLLLWLLWL
Miami Heat
LWWLWWLLLL
#8
League position
#18
+2.1
Net rating
-2.9
113.7
Offensive rating
111.3
111.6
Defensive rating
114.2
56.3%
Effective FG%
51.8%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
56.4%
11.6%
Turnover %
10.3%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
21.7%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.23
38.2%
3-point %
34.1%
66.3%
Assist %
65.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence113.7 · 111.3Defence111.6 · 114.2Shooting56.3% · 51.8%3-point %38.2% · 34.1%Ball care11.6% · 10.3%Off. rebounds19.3% · 21.7%Free throws0.26 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateGameScore
29/11/23Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks124-131
31/10/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat122-114
27/04/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat126-128 OT
24/04/23Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks119-114
22/04/23Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks121-99
20/04/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat138-122
16/04/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat117-130
25/02/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat128-99
05/02/23Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat123-115
14/01/23Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks111-95
Milwaukee Buckslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/24HDenver Nuggets112-95
10/02/24HCharlotte Hornets120-84
09/02/24HMinnesota Timberwolves105-129
07/02/24APhoenix Suns106-114
05/02/24AUtah Jazz108-123
04/02/24ADallas Mavericks129-117
01/02/24APortland Trail Blazers116-119
30/01/24ADenver Nuggets107-113
28/01/24HNew Orleans Pelicans141-117
27/01/24HCleveland Cavaliers100-112
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/24HBoston Celtics106-110
08/02/24HSan Antonio Spurs116-104
07/02/24HOrlando Magic121-95
04/02/24HLos Angeles Clippers95-103
03/02/24AWashington Wizards110-102
01/02/24HSacramento Kings115-106
30/01/24HPhoenix Suns105-118
27/01/24ANew York Knicks109-125
26/01/24HBoston Celtics110-143
25/01/24HMemphis Grizzlies96-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW65%
HomeLWLWW81%
AwayLLWLL48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games522725
Win %65%81%48%
Points / game122.3123.6120.9
Allowed / game118.6116.9120.5
Point differential+3.7+6.7+0.4
Avg total241.0240.5241.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%37%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won69% (13)100% (7)33% (6)
Overtime %6%7%4%
Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL53%
HomeWLWWL54%
AwayWLLLW52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532825
Win %53%54%52%
Points / game110.4113.1107.4
Allowed / game110.8113.0108.2
Point differential-0.4+0.1-0.9
Avg total221.1226.1215.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%18%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won54% (13)50% (8)60% (5)
Overtime %2%0%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics53421179%120.5110.8+9.7
2 Minnesota Timberwolves53371670%113.6107.0+6.6
3 Oklahoma City Thunder54371769%120.8113.6+7.2
4 Cleveland Cavaliers52351767%115.0109.3+5.7
5 Los Angeles Clippers52351767%118.0112.5+5.6
6 Denver Nuggets54361867%114.2111.0+3.3
7 Milwaukee Bucks52341865%122.3118.6+3.7
8 New York Knicks53332062%114.6109.1+5.5
9 Philadelphia 76ers53322160%118.6114.0+4.6
10 New Orleans Pelicans52312160%116.5111.5+5.0
11 Phoenix Suns52312160%117.7114.6+3.1
12 Sacramento Kings51302159%118.6117.9+0.7
13 Dallas Mavericks54312357%118.7117.7+1.0
14 Orlando Magic54292554%111.6111.1+0.6
15 Indiana Pacers53282553%123.6122.5+1.1
16 Miami Heat53282553%110.4110.8-0.4
17 Golden State Warriors51262551%119.2117.6+1.6
18 Los Angeles Lakers52262650%116.3118.0-1.6
19 Chicago Bulls54262848%111.9113.0-1.1
20 Utah Jazz54262848%117.6120.0-2.4
21 Houston Rockets53242945%113.3112.6+0.8
22 Atlanta Hawks54243044%121.7123.9-2.2
23 Brooklyn Nets53213240%113.9115.2-1.4
24 Toronto Raptors54193535%113.7117.6-3.9
25 Memphis Grizzlies54183633%106.7113.1-6.4
26 Portland Trail Blazers52153729%108.2116.4-8.2
27 Charlotte Hornets53124123%108.4119.8-11.4
28 San Antonio Spurs54114320%112.2120.5-8.4
29 Washington Wizards5394417%114.6123.7-9.1
30 Detroit Pistons5284415%113.2122.1-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks2824242197
Miami Heat40292925123
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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