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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 128-117
30-29 33-29 26-35 39-24
Position#21
Record24-31
FormLWWWL
Points / game112.0
Allowed / game115.4
vs
Position#17
Record31-26
FormWLWWW
Points / game120.2
Allowed / game116.9
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#30
L
99-109
99
109
-10
85avg 106
A30/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
79-107
79
107
-28
64avg 106
A01/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
131-115
131
115
+16
129avg 106
H04/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
141-137 OT
141
137
+4
145avg 106
H05/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
105-99
105
99
+6
98avg 106
H07/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
99-118
99
118
-19
88avg 106
A10/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
116-108
116
108
+8
114avg 106
A12/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
110-93
110
93
+17
102avg 106
A13/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
139-118
139
118
+21
133avg 106
A21/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
94-122
94
122
-28
82avg 106
H22/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-25
20-32
29-25
27-27
26-26
16-30
19-22
18-29
39-24
38-28
28-37
26-26
30-34
33-36
36-34
29-24
23-29
31-18
29-18
22-34
22-27
32-24
20-36
25-31
20-24
32-27
36-32
28-25
30-25
37-30
22-18
21-20
33-38
38-27
32-31
36-22
27-22
24-38
22-32
21-30
223.9Avg total
111.3Scored
112.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (55)112.0115.4227.3-3.444%
Season at home (25)115.5117.4232.9-1.948%
Season away (30)109.0113.7222.7-4.740%
Last 10 (10)111.3112.6223.9-1.360%
Last 5 (5)111.6111.8223.4-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)106.8113.5220.3-6.737%
vs Similar (9)115.6112.9228.4+2.778%
vs Weaker (2)106.0111.5217.5-5.50%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
116-113
116
113
+3
111avg 108
A30/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
118-125
118
125
-7
106avg 108
H01/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
134-91
134
91
+43
136avg 108
H01/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
115-127
115
127
-12
107avg 108
H04/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
96-98
96
98
-2
86avg 108
A07/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
132-101
132
101
+31
132avg 108
A08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
111-115
111
115
-4
102avg 108
H10/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
123-111
123
111
+12
111avg 108
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-120
136
120
+16
140avg 108
H22/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-31
28-20
29-34
25-28
25-31
38-25
21-35
34-34
34-13
28-27
39-22
33-29
23-33
27-34
31-31
34-29
29-15
30-23
15-36
22-24
37-33
37-19
33-23
25-26
32-26
20-35
30-24
29-30
31-25
27-30
38-30
27-26
29-16
28-35
30-24
41-22
39-33
34-35
39-26
24-26
230.7Avg total
120.9Scored
109.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (57)120.2116.9237.1+3.454%
Season at home (28)122.0117.6239.6+4.561%
Season away (29)118.5116.2234.7+2.348%
Last 10 (10)120.9109.8230.7+11.160%
Last 5 (5)126.0108.8234.8+17.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)114.5117.5232.0-3.033%
vs Similar (12)116.7119.6236.2-2.942%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)126.1112.8238.9+13.275%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +2.0+2.0
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +2.0+2.0
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#30
L
43-57
43
57
-14
A30/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A01/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
77-52
77
52
+25
H04/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
63-70
63
70
-7
H05/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H07/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A10/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
52-51
52
51
+1
A12/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
67-55
67
55
+12
A13/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
71-65
71
65
+6
A21/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
51-60
51
60
-9
H22/02
NBA
113.8Avg total
57.4Scored
56.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.657.9113.5-2.240%-
Last 30 at home (11)55.461.0116.4-5.618%-
Last 30 away (19)55.856.1111.8-0.353%-
Last 10 (10)57.456.4113.8+1.060%-
Last 5 (5)59.056.4115.4+2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)54.058.8112.8-4.832%-
vs Similar (9)59.855.2115.0+4.667%-
vs Weaker (2)52.561.0113.5-8.50%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A30/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H01/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
62-40
62
40
+22
H01/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
50-67
50
67
-17
H04/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
59-38
59
38
+21
A07/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
74-52
74
52
+22
A08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
52-61
52
61
-9
H10/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H22/02
NBA
114.9Avg total
61.0Scored
53.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.456.9118.3+4.560%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.658.3118.9+2.450%-
Last 30 away (16)62.155.8117.8+6.369%-
Last 10 (10)61.053.9114.9+7.180%-
Last 5 (5)62.857.4120.2+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)61.255.2116.3+6.067%-
vs Similar (12)58.957.9116.8+1.042%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)64.056.8120.8+7.275%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 111.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.528.5
55.3%
54.8%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.914.4
38.0%
35.8%43.2
🏀 Free throws14.411.1
77.1%
78.1%11.1
They take 89.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.230.3
54.9%
54.8%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.313.6
33.7%
35.8%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.519.5
76.5%
78.1%19.5
They take 95.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LWWWLWWWLL
Miami Heat
WWWLWLLWLW
#21
League position
#17
-1.3
Net rating
+10.5
113.1
Offensive rating
114.2
114.4
Defensive rating
103.7
56.0%
Effective FG%
53.1%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
13.3%
Turnover %
12.0%
26.0%
Off. rebound %
27.1%
0.16
Free-throw rate
0.27
38.0%
3-point %
33.7%
57.6%
Assist %
67.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence113.1 · 114.2Defence114.4 · 103.7Shooting56.0% · 53.1%3-point %38.0% · 33.7%Ball care13.3% · 12.0%Off. rebounds26.0% · 27.1%Free throws0.16 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/26HToronto Raptors94-122
21/02/26ANew Orleans Pelicans139-118
13/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder110-93
12/02/26AOrlando Magic116-108
10/02/26AOrlando Magic99-118
07/02/26HIndiana Pacers105-99
05/02/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-137 OT
04/02/26HChicago Bulls131-115
01/02/26ABoston Celtics79-107
30/01/26AWashington Wizards99-109
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-120
21/02/26AAtlanta Hawks128-97
12/02/26ANew Orleans Pelicans123-111
10/02/26HUtah Jazz111-115
08/02/26AWashington Wizards132-101
07/02/26ABoston Celtics96-98
04/02/26HAtlanta Hawks115-127
01/02/26HChicago Bulls134-91
01/02/26HChicago Bulls118-125
30/01/26AChicago Bulls116-113

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL44%
HomeLWWWL48%
AwayLLWWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games552530
Win %44%48%40%
Points / game112.0115.5109.0
Allowed / game115.4117.4113.7
Point differential-3.4-1.9-4.7
Avg total227.3232.9222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%32%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (15)50% (6)44% (9)
Overtime %5%12%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW54%
HomeLWLLW61%
AwayWLWWW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games572829
Win %54%61%48%
Points / game120.2122.0118.5
Allowed / game116.9117.6116.2
Point differential+3.4+4.5+2.3
Avg total237.1239.6234.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%32%34%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)67% (9)40% (5)
Overtime %2%4%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder57441377%119.3108.0+11.3
2 Detroit Pistons56421475%117.3109.4+7.9
3 San Antonio Spurs55391671%118.4111.8+6.6
4 Boston Celtics56371966%115.3108.0+7.2
5 Cleveland Cavaliers59372263%119.5115.0+4.5
6 Houston Rockets56352162%114.5109.4+5.1
7 Denver Nuggets58362262%120.8116.3+4.5
8 Los Angeles Lakers55342162%115.6115.8-0.1
9 New York Knicks57352261%116.8111.8+5.1
10 Minnesota Timberwolves58352360%119.5115.0+4.5
11 Toronto Raptors57342360%114.0111.7+2.2
12 Phoenix Suns57332458%113.1111.2+1.9
13 Philadelphia 76ers58322655%116.6115.9+0.6
14 Miami Heat57312654%120.2116.9+3.4
15 Orlando Magic54292554%115.1114.5+0.5
16 Golden State Warriors57302753%115.6113.9+1.8
17 Atlanta Hawks60293148%117.0118.0-1.1
18 Portland Trail Blazers58283048%115.7118.2-2.6
19 Los Angeles Clippers57273047%112.1112.6-0.5
20 Charlotte Hornets58273147%115.6113.7+1.9
21 Milwaukee Bucks55243144%112.0115.4-3.4
22 Chicago Bulls58243441%116.1120.3-4.2
23 Memphis Grizzlies56213538%115.5117.8-2.4
24 Dallas Mavericks57213637%114.4117.6-3.2
25 Utah Jazz58184031%118.0125.9-7.9
26 Washington Wizards57164128%112.2122.8-10.5
27 New Orleans Pelicans58164228%114.8120.6-5.7
28 Brooklyn Nets57154226%106.9114.8-7.9
29 Indiana Pacers59154425%111.5119.2-7.7
30 Sacramento Kings59134622%110.3121.0-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks30332639128
Miami Heat29293524117
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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