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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 24 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 125-96
27-30 44-25 23-19 31-22
Position#13
Record22-17
FormLWWWW
Points / game114.1
Allowed / game111.4
vs
Position#20
Record21-21
FormLLLWL
Points / game111.1
Allowed / game110.1
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
110-113
110
113
-3
97avg 106
H03/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
102-105
102
105
-3
90avg 106
H05/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
128-104
128
104
+24
137avg 106
A07/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
121-105
121
105
+16
118avg 106
H09/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
109-106
109
106
+3
99avg 106
A11/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
106-140
106
140
-34
90avg 106
A12/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
130-115
130
115
+15
128avg 106
H15/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
122-93
122
93
+29
127avg 106
H16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
130-112
130
112
+18
126avg 106
H18/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
123-109
123
109
+14
122avg 106
H20/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-30
31-36
31-28
25-19
31-28
20-26
25-21
26-30
28-19
38-28
33-28
29-29
31-27
34-19
26-32
30-27
29-31
21-20
28-30
31-25
33-36
29-39
27-33
17-32
47-26
28-28
27-28
28-33
34-16
28-25
30-27
30-25
37-22
35-35
35-34
23-21
30-21
29-29
31-31
33-28
228.3Avg total
118.1Scored
110.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)114.1111.4225.5+2.756%
Season at home (21)116.7109.7226.4+7.067%
Season away (18)111.1113.3224.3-2.244%
Last 10 (10)118.1110.2228.3+7.970%
Last 5 (5)122.2113.8236.0+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)103.0117.5220.5-14.50%
vs Similar ◀ (13)115.4109.6225.0+5.877%
vs Weaker (14)115.6107.4223.1+8.271%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#30
L
100-136
100
136
-36
88avg 104
H05/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
118-123 OT
118
123
-5
105avg 104
A07/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
114-98
114
98
+16
112avg 104
A08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
97-92
97
92
+5
89avg 104
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
119-98
119
98
+21
114avg 104
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
98-109
98
109
-11
90avg 104
A14/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
108avg 104
A16/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
113-133
113
133
-20
109avg 104
H18/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
128-107
128
107
+21
130avg 104
H19/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
107-116
107
116
-9
99avg 104
H22/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-22
19-40
25-36
34-38
28-23
19-27
31-18
24-34
29-23
32-25
23-30
30-20
20-27
26-14
22-29
29-22
29-23
37-25
28-35
25-15
35-28
13-15
20-36
30-30
38-34
28-20
19-29
23-34
24-30
31-37
31-31
27-35
20-30
26-11
46-27
36-39
38-34
17-27
22-36
30-19
223.1Avg total
110.2Scored
112.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)111.1110.1221.3+1.050%
Season at home (20)112.7110.7223.3+2.055%
Season away (22)109.7109.7219.4+0.045%
Last 10 (10)110.2112.9223.1-2.740%
Last 5 (5)110.8116.4227.2-5.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)102.0106.8208.8-4.840%
vs Similar ◀ (19)115.3112.4227.7+2.947%
vs Weaker (6)105.0102.3207.3+2.783%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +0.2+0.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +0.2+0.2
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
54-66
54
66
-12
H03/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
51-54
51
54
-3
H05/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
66-47
66
47
+19
A07/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
65-46
65
46
+19
H09/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
50-51
50
51
-1
A11/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A12/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
75-54
75
54
+21
H15/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
72-57
72
57
+15
H18/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
59-50
59
50
+9
H20/01
NBA
115.7Avg total
61.6Scored
54.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.254.6114.8+5.670%-
Last 30 at home (18)60.652.9113.5+7.783%-
Last 30 away (12)59.657.2116.8+2.350%-
Last 10 (10)61.654.1115.7+7.560%-
Last 5 (5)66.055.4121.4+10.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)54.061.0115.0-7.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)62.155.2117.3+6.862%-
vs Weaker (14)59.452.9112.2+6.579%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#30
L
41-62
41
62
-21
H05/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A07/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
61-48
61
48
+13
A08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
66-48
66
48
+18
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A14/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
66-54
66
54
+12
A16/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
55-67
55
67
-12
H18/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H19/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H22/01
NBA
104.6Avg total
53.1Scored
51.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.754.3109.0+0.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.156.2110.3-2.244%-
Last 30 away (14)55.452.1107.6+3.357%-
Last 10 (10)53.151.5104.6+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)54.053.2107.2+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)50.450.8101.2-0.460%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)57.156.3113.4+0.842%-
vs Weaker (6)50.751.0101.7-0.367%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 118.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.730.2
57.3%
54.3%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.813.5
38.8%
35.9%40.5
🏀 Free throws23.617.2
72.9%
77.8%17.2
They take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 110.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.9 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.626.6
54.7%
54.3%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.714.3
35.1%
35.9%42.9
🏀 Free throws17.414.1
81.0%
77.8%14.1
They take 89.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWWLWWWLL
Miami Heat
LWLLLWWWLL
#13
League position
#20
+7.8
Net rating
-2.7
116.6
Offensive rating
109.7
108.8
Defensive rating
112.4
57.7%
Effective FG%
53.8%
52.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.7%
12.6%
Turnover %
12.2%
21.3%
Off. rebound %
19.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.19
38.8%
3-point %
35.1%
59.7%
Assist %
67.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence116.6 · 109.7Defence108.8 · 112.4Shooting57.7% · 53.8%3-point %38.8% · 35.1%Ball care12.6% · 12.2%Off. rebounds21.3% · 19.5%Free throws0.27 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/25HPhiladelphia 76ers123-109
18/01/25HToronto Raptors130-112
16/01/25HOrlando Magic122-93
15/01/25HSacramento Kings130-115
12/01/25ANew York Knicks106-140
11/01/25AOrlando Magic109-106
09/01/25HSan Antonio Spurs121-105
07/01/25AToronto Raptors128-104
05/01/25HPortland Trail Blazers102-105
03/01/25HBrooklyn Nets110-113
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/25HPortland Trail Blazers107-116
19/01/25HSan Antonio Spurs128-107
18/01/25HDenver Nuggets113-133
16/01/25ALos Angeles Lakers108-117
14/01/25ALos Angeles Clippers98-109
12/01/25APortland Trail Blazers119-98
10/01/25AUtah Jazz97-92
08/01/25AGolden State Warriors114-98
07/01/25ASacramento Kings118-123 OT
05/01/25HUtah Jazz100-136

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW56%
HomeWWWWW67%
AwayLWWWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392118
Win %56%67%44%
Points / game114.1116.7111.1
Allowed / game111.4109.7113.3
Point differential+2.7+7.0-2.2
Avg total225.5226.4224.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%52%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)25% (4)50% (6)
Overtime %3%5%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL50%
HomeLLLWL55%
AwayWWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422022
Win %50%55%45%
Points / game111.1112.7109.7
Allowed / game110.1110.7109.7
Point differential+1.0+2.0+0.0
Avg total221.3223.3219.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%40%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)33% (3)50% (10)
Overtime %10%5%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers4336784%121.7111.6+10.1
2 Oklahoma City Thunder4234881%116.6104.5+12.2
3 Boston Celtics44311370%117.7108.2+9.5
4 Houston Rockets41281368%114.7108.2+6.5
5 Memphis Grizzlies44291566%123.3115.0+8.2
6 New York Knicks44291566%117.0110.8+6.3
7 Denver Nuggets43271663%120.7115.4+5.3
8 Milwaukee Bucks39221756%114.1111.4+2.7
9 Los Angeles Lakers41231856%111.2113.2-2.0
10 Los Angeles Clippers43241956%109.6106.9+2.7
11 Dallas Mavericks44242055%115.5111.8+3.7
12 Indiana Pacers44242055%115.0115.1-0.1
13 Sacramento Kings43232053%116.8114.0+2.9
14 Minnesota Timberwolves44232152%110.1108.2+1.9
15 Detroit Pistons44232152%112.2112.9-0.7
16 Phoenix Suns43222151%112.6113.7-1.1
17 Orlando Magic45232251%103.3104.1-0.8
18 Miami Heat42212150%111.1110.1+1.0
19 Golden State Warriors42212150%111.4111.9-0.5
20 Atlanta Hawks42212150%117.4119.6-2.3
21 San Antonio Spurs42202248%112.3113.0-0.7
22 Chicago Bulls44192543%117.1120.0-2.9
23 Portland Trail Blazers44162836%107.9115.6-7.7
24 Philadelphia 76ers42152736%107.5112.4-4.9
25 Brooklyn Nets45143131%105.9113.6-7.7
26 Charlotte Hornets40112928%107.4113.0-5.6
27 Toronto Raptors44123227%111.2118.0-6.8
28 New Orleans Pelicans44123227%109.2117.2-8.0
29 Utah Jazz42103224%111.5118.3-6.8
30 Washington Wizards4263614%108.1122.5-14.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks27442331125
Miami Heat3025192296
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