PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 May 2021
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 122-108
44-28 26-23 29-30 23-27
Position#5
Record45-28
FormWWLWW
Points / game119.8
Allowed / game114.6
vs
Position#15
Record40-32
FormLWWWW
Points / game107.8
Allowed / game107.9
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
114-104
114
104
+10
110avg 111
A27/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
L
136-143
136
143
-7
127avg 111
A30/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
108-98
108
98
+10
102avg 111
A01/05
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
117-114
117
114
+3
63avg 111
H02/05
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
124-118
124
118
+6
115avg 111
H04/05
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
W
135-134
135
134
+1
133avg 111
H06/05
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
141-133
141
133
+8
141avg 111
H08/05
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
L
125-146
125
146
-21
111avg 111
A11/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
114-102
114
102
+12
100avg 111
H12/05
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
142-133
142
133
+9
144avg 111
A13/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-28
29-17
25-35
27-24
38-29
35-36
25-39
38-39
28-16
24-28
28-19
28-35
28-37
34-22
28-31
27-24
34-33
32-25
26-36
32-24
29-37
42-34
32-24
32-39
34-34
30-29
43-29
34-41
36-45
28-42
29-26
32-33
29-22
30-26
20-23
35-31
39-38
30-28
40-30
33-37
248.1Avg total
125.6Scored
122.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (73)119.8114.6234.4+5.262%
Season at home (37)120.0113.6233.6+6.468%
Season away (36)119.5115.6235.1+3.956%
Last 10 (10)125.6122.5248.1+3.180%
Last 5 (5)131.4129.6261.0+1.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)114.7112.3227.0+2.555%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)125.0119.3244.3+5.768%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
106-101
106
101
+5
97avg 103
H25/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
102-110
102
110
-8
86avg 103
H27/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
116-111
116
111
+5
115avg 103
H29/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
124-107
124
107
+17
120avg 103
A02/05
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
121-111
121
111
+10
117avg 103
A03/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
113-127
113
127
-14
109avg 103
H05/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
121-112
121
112
+9
112avg 103
H08/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
130-124
130
124
+6
129avg 103
A09/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
129-121
129
121
+8
128avg 103
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
106-94
106
94
+12
107avg 103
H13/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-18
28-23
19-22
26-38
26-20
27-32
29-24
20-34
31-20
24-34
27-20
34-37
29-36
38-24
32-26
25-21
35-32
30-26
35-22
21-31
39-30
15-33
23-35
36-29
28-32
31-22
30-24
32-34
36-23
43-30
26-31
25-40
28-28
34-28
31-23
36-42
38-22
22-19
29-26
17-27
228.6Avg total
116.8Scored
111.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)107.8107.9215.7-0.156%
Season at home (37)108.6108.7217.3-0.157%
Season away (35)107.0107.0214.0-0.154%
Last 10 (10)116.8111.8228.6+5.080%
Last 5 (5)119.8115.6235.4+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)101.4108.0209.4-6.640%
vs Similar (20)109.5109.5219.0+0.055%
vs Weaker (5)116.8106.0222.8+10.880%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +6.2+6.2Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: -6.1-6.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +6.2+6.2Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: -6.1-6.1
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
62-45
62
45
+17
A27/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A30/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
52-44
52
44
+8
A01/05
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
62-59
62
59
+3
H02/05
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H04/05
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
D
71-71
71
71
+0
H06/05
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
64-63
64
63
+1
H08/05
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
L
64-87
64
87
-23
A11/05
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H12/05
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
69-66
69
66
+3
A13/05
NBA
124.8Avg total
64.2Scored
60.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.956.1117.0+4.870%-
Last 30 at home (15)62.458.3120.7+4.160%-
Last 30 away (15)59.553.9113.3+5.680%-
Last 10 (10)64.260.6124.8+3.680%-
Last 5 (5)65.467.0132.4-1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)58.753.2111.9+5.573%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)62.257.8120.0+4.468%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
61-41
61
41
+20
H25/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H27/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
55-54
55
54
+1
H29/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
67-60
67
60
+7
A02/05
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
W
65-58
65
58
+7
A03/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
54-63
54
63
-9
H05/05
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H08/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
79-53
79
53
+26
A09/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
62-56
62
56
+6
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
60-41
60
41
+19
H13/05
NBA
114.7Avg total
61.5Scored
53.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.055.4111.4+0.647%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.655.6112.1+1.050%-
Last 30 away (14)55.455.2110.6+0.243%-
Last 10 (10)61.553.2114.7+8.390%-
Last 5 (5)62.853.4116.2+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)53.255.0108.2-1.840%-
vs Similar (20)55.455.1110.5+0.245%-
vs Weaker (5)61.656.8118.4+4.860%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 125.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers68.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.534.1
58.3%
52.8%68.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.013.2
36.7%
36.6%39.6
🏀 Free throws23.017.8
77.4%
77.7%17.8
They take 94.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 116.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.429.1
58.9%
52.8%58.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.513.5
39.1%
36.6%40.5
🏀 Free throws21.818.1
83.0%
77.7%18.1
They take 83.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 May 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLWWWWWLW
Miami Heat
WWWWLWWWLW
#5
League position
#15
+2.9
Net rating
+5.1
117.7
Offensive rating
120.1
114.8
Defensive rating
115.0
57.0%
Effective FG%
58.8%
55.9%
Opp. effective FG%
58.6%
11.7%
Turnover %
12.0%
23.6%
Off. rebound %
20.9%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.26
36.7%
3-point %
39.1%
54.3%
Assist %
62.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence117.7 · 120.1Defence114.8 · 115.0Shooting57.0% · 58.8%3-point %36.7% · 39.1%Ball care11.7% · 12.0%Off. rebounds23.6% · 20.9%Free throws0.24 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Milwaukee Bucks wins
7
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/05/21AIndiana Pacers142-133
12/05/21HOrlando Magic114-102
11/05/21ASan Antonio Spurs125-146
08/05/21HHouston Rockets141-133
06/05/21HWashington Wizards135-134
04/05/21HBrooklyn Nets124-118
02/05/21HBrooklyn Nets117-114
01/05/21AChicago Bulls108-98
30/04/21AHouston Rockets136-143
27/04/21ACharlotte Hornets114-104
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/05/21HPhiladelphia 76ers106-94
11/05/21ABoston Celtics129-121
09/05/21ABoston Celtics130-124
08/05/21HMinnesota Timberwolves121-112
05/05/21HDallas Mavericks113-127
03/05/21ACharlotte Hornets121-111
02/05/21ACleveland Cavaliers124-107
29/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs116-111
27/04/21HChicago Bulls102-110
25/04/21HChicago Bulls106-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW62%
HomeWWWWW68%
AwayWLWLW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games733736
Win %62%68%56%
Points / game119.8120.0119.5
Allowed / game114.6113.6115.6
Point differential+5.2+6.4+3.9
Avg total234.4233.6235.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%41%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (16)86% (7)33% (9)
Overtime %3%3%3%
Miami Heat
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW56%
HomeLWLWW57%
AwayLWWWW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723735
Win %56%57%54%
Points / game107.8108.6107.0
Allowed / game107.9108.7107.0
Point differential-0.1-0.1-0.1
Avg total215.7217.3214.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%24%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (18)50% (10)50% (8)
Overtime %6%5%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz74542073%116.4107.0+9.4
2 Philadelphia 76ers73502368%113.4107.8+5.6
3 Brooklyn Nets73492467%118.4113.8+4.6
4 Phoenix Suns75502567%114.6109.5+5.0
5 Denver Nuggets74492566%115.2109.4+5.9
6 Los Angeles Clippers74472764%113.4108.0+5.4
7 Milwaukee Bucks73452862%119.8114.6+5.2
8 Los Angeles Lakers75453060%109.6106.6+3.0
9 Dallas Mavericks74443059%112.7110.0+2.7
10 New York Knicks75433257%106.8104.1+2.7
11 Atlanta Hawks75423356%113.5111.9+1.6
12 Portland Trail Blazers75423356%115.4114.6+0.8
13 Miami Heat72403256%107.8107.9-0.1
14 Memphis Grizzlies75413455%113.7112.0+1.7
15 Golden State Warriors74403454%113.6112.6+1.0
16 Boston Celtics73363749%112.4111.4+1.0
17 Washington Wizards74344046%116.0118.0-2.0
18 Charlotte Hornets75344145%109.6111.5-1.9
19 New Orleans Pelicans73334045%115.0114.6+0.4
20 Indiana Pacers74334145%114.8115.2-0.5
21 San Antonio Spurs74334145%110.7113.0-2.3
22 Chicago Bulls75334244%110.5111.2-0.7
23 Sacramento Kings75334244%113.8117.2-3.5
24 Toronto Raptors74294539%111.2111.4-0.3
25 Cleveland Cavaliers75245132%103.5111.9-8.3
26 Minnesota Timberwolves74235131%111.8117.7-5.9
27 Orlando Magic75235231%104.4113.3-8.9
28 Oklahoma City Thunder74225230%105.0115.6-10.6
29 Detroit Pistons75225329%105.9109.9-4.0
30 Houston Rockets75205527%109.3115.9-6.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks44262923122
Miami Heat28233027108
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.