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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 06 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 115-121 (OT)
30-22 27-35 31-24 23-30 4-10
Position#20
Record35-42
FormWWWWL
Points / game109.8
Allowed / game109.8
vs
Position#13
Record40-34
FormLLLWW
Points / game114.9
Allowed / game113.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#6
L
95-116
95
116
-21
88avg 104
A17/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
L
113-116
113
116
-3
102avg 104
H19/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
98-102
98
102
-4
96avg 104
H22/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
122-105
122
105
+17
117avg 104
H23/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
112-86
112
86
+26
113avg 104
H25/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
122-112
122
112
+10
117avg 104
H27/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
118-95
118
95
+23
116avg 104
A29/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
120-94
120
94
+26
122avg 104
A31/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
124-103
124
103
+21
118avg 104
A02/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
108-110
108
110
-2
96avg 104
H03/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-18
20-29
15-41
31-28
32-22
28-36
33-30
20-28
27-23
32-28
21-27
18-24
20-26
37-21
39-28
26-30
28-22
29-18
26-30
29-16
22-32
38-23
33-25
29-32
34-29
28-24
34-22
22-20
36-23
22-24
34-28
28-19
29-22
30-23
32-36
33-22
27-22
23-27
35-35
23-26
217.1Avg total
113.2Scored
103.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (77)109.8109.8219.6+0.045%
Season at home (38)111.3109.8221.1+1.447%
Season away (39)108.4109.8218.2-1.444%
Last 10 (10)113.2103.9217.1+9.360%
Last 5 (5)118.4102.8221.2+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)101.7110.8212.5-9.28%
vs Similar ◀ (11)115.3112.5227.7+2.845%
vs Weaker (7)108.998.9207.7+10.071%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
105-121
105
121
-16
89avg 106
H17/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
93-104
93
104
-11
77avg 106
A19/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
118-89
118
89
+29
110avg 106
A21/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
114-108
114
108
+6
106avg 106
A23/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
L
106-108
106
108
-2
94avg 106
A25/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
117-127
117
127
-10
112avg 106
A27/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
107-116
107
116
-9
101avg 106
H29/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
124-145
124
145
-21
111avg 106
H30/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
133-123
133
123
+10
138avg 106
H01/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
126-113
126
113
+13
126avg 106
A03/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-24
15-29
33-39
31-29
27-32
17-26
32-20
17-26
34-19
23-27
34-23
27-20
17-25
32-36
37-28
28-19
30-25
28-29
20-27
28-27
27-38
37-29
28-33
25-27
19-25
30-35
24-21
34-35
44-37
31-45
17-36
32-27
31-19
29-38
35-26
38-40
25-39
36-20
35-28
30-26
229.7Avg total
114.3Scored
115.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (74)114.9113.1228.0+1.854%
Season at home (37)118.0112.9230.9+5.062%
Season away (37)111.9113.3225.2-1.446%
Last 10 (10)114.3115.4229.7-1.140%
Last 5 (5)121.4124.8246.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)100.3119.3219.7-19.00%
vs Similar ◀ (21)116.2114.0230.2+2.352%
vs Weaker (6)119.3112.3231.7+7.083%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.5+4.5Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +1.4+1.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.5+4.5Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +1.4+1.4
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#6
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A17/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H19/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
59-51
59
51
+8
H22/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
57-47
57
47
+10
H23/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
57-40
57
40
+17
H25/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
60-55
60
55
+5
H27/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
62-53
62
53
+9
A29/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
58-47
58
47
+11
A31/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A02/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H03/04
NBA
106.3Avg total
57.1Scored
49.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.952.5109.3+4.467%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.451.6108.1+4.862%-
Last 30 away (14)57.453.4110.8+3.971%-
Last 10 (10)57.149.2106.3+7.9100%-
Last 5 (5)57.849.8107.6+8.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)53.852.2106.0+1.750%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)59.554.8114.4+4.773%-
vs Weaker (7)57.949.3107.1+8.686%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H17/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
44-58
44
58
-14
A19/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A21/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
49-61
49
61
-12
A23/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
58-54
58
54
+4
A25/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
64-67
64
67
-3
A27/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
49-60
49
60
-11
H29/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
75-82
75
82
-7
H30/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H01/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
61-59
61
59
+2
A03/04
NBA
115.5Avg total
55.8Scored
59.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.059.4117.4-1.450%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.159.9118.1-1.847%-
Last 30 away (15)57.958.9116.7-1.053%-
Last 10 (10)55.859.7115.5-3.940%-
Last 5 (5)61.865.0126.8-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)45.764.3110.0-18.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)59.259.2118.4-0.048%-
vs Weaker (6)60.057.5117.5+2.583%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 113.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.729.8
54.5%
54.3%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.413.0
42.8%
35.9%39.0
🏀 Free throws17.914.6
81.6%
77.8%14.6
They take 85.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 114.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.327.3
57.7%
54.3%54.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.213.5
39.5%
35.9%40.5
🏀 Free throws26.019.2
73.8%
77.8%19.2
They take 81.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWWWWWWLLL
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLLLLWWLL
#20
League position
#13
+9.7
Net rating
-1.1
118.1
Offensive rating
117.5
108.4
Defensive rating
118.6
57.9%
Effective FG%
58.3%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
55.9%
13.8%
Turnover %
11.6%
25.9%
Off. rebound %
17.5%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.32
42.8%
3-point %
39.5%
61.9%
Assist %
61.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence118.1 · 117.5Defence108.4 · 118.6Shooting57.9% · 58.3%3-point %42.8% · 39.5%Ball care13.8% · 11.6%Off. rebounds25.9% · 17.5%Free throws0.21 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies108-110
02/04/25ABoston Celtics124-103
31/03/25AWashington Wizards120-94
29/03/25APhiladelphia 76ers118-95
27/03/25HAtlanta Hawks122-112
25/03/25HGolden State Warriors112-86
23/03/25HCharlotte Hornets122-105
22/03/25HHouston Rockets98-102
19/03/25HDetroit Pistons113-116
17/03/25ANew York Knicks95-116
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/04/25APhiladelphia 76ers126-113
01/04/25HPhoenix Suns133-123
30/03/25HAtlanta Hawks124-145
29/03/25HNew York Knicks107-116
27/03/25ADenver Nuggets117-127
25/03/25APhoenix Suns106-108
23/03/25ASacramento Kings114-108
21/03/25ALos Angeles Lakers118-89
19/03/25AGolden State Warriors93-104
17/03/25HOklahoma City Thunder105-121

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL45%
HomeLWWWL47%
AwayLLWWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games773839
Win %45%47%44%
Points / game109.8111.3108.4
Allowed / game109.8109.8109.8
Point differential+0.0+1.4-1.4
Avg total219.6221.1218.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%34%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (24)18% (11)46% (13)
Overtime %9%8%10%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW54%
HomeWLLLW62%
AwayWWLLW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743737
Win %54%62%46%
Points / game114.9118.0111.9
Allowed / game113.1112.9113.3
Point differential+1.8+5.0-1.4
Avg total228.0230.9225.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%41%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won35% (17)20% (5)42% (12)
Overtime %1%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder75621383%120.4107.4+13.0
2 Cleveland Cavaliers77621581%122.2112.2+10.0
3 Boston Celtics77572074%116.8107.8+8.9
4 Houston Rockets76502666%115.0109.3+5.8
5 New York Knicks76492764%116.4111.9+4.5
6 Los Angeles Lakers77473061%113.2112.3+0.9
7 Golden State Warriors76463061%114.2111.1+3.1
8 Denver Nuggets78473160%120.7116.9+3.8
9 Indiana Pacers77463160%117.4115.1+2.3
10 Minnesota Timberwolves78463259%114.0109.4+4.7
11 Memphis Grizzlies78463259%121.7117.0+4.7
12 Los Angeles Clippers77453258%112.2108.0+4.2
13 Detroit Pistons78433555%115.2113.0+2.2
14 Milwaukee Bucks74403454%114.9113.1+1.8
15 Dallas Mavericks77383949%114.8115.1-0.3
16 Orlando Magic77383949%105.0105.5-0.4
17 Sacramento Kings77374048%115.8115.6+0.3
18 Atlanta Hawks75354047%118.0120.0-2.0
19 Miami Heat77354245%109.8109.8+0.0
20 Chicago Bulls77354245%117.6119.9-2.3
21 Phoenix Suns77354245%114.2116.7-2.5
22 Portland Trail Blazers78344444%110.9114.2-3.3
23 San Antonio Spurs77324542%114.0116.6-2.6
24 Toronto Raptors78285036%110.6115.2-4.7
25 Brooklyn Nets77255232%105.0111.8-6.7
26 Philadelphia 76ers78235529%109.6115.8-6.2
27 New Orleans Pelicans77215627%110.0118.8-8.8
28 Charlotte Hornets77195825%105.5113.8-8.3
29 Washington Wizards77176022%108.5120.6-12.1
30 Utah Jazz78166221%111.4120.6-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Miami Heat302731234115
Milwaukee Bucks2235243010121
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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