PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 123-115
34-26 28-36 32-30 29-23
Position#1
Record35-17
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.1
Allowed / game111.8
vs
Position#10
Record29-24
FormWWLWL
Points / game108.4
Allowed / game108.1
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#10
L
95-111
95
111
-16
82avg 107
A14/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
132-119
132
119
+13
130avg 107
H16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
130-122
130
122
+8
125avg 107
H18/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
102-114
102
114
-12
92avg 107
A22/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
150-130
150
130
+20
152avg 107
A24/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
W
107-99
107
99
+8
100avg 107
H26/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
141-131
141
131
+10
136avg 107
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
135-110
135
110
+25
133avg 107
H30/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
124-115
124
115
+9
112avg 107
H01/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
106-105
106
105
+1
93avg 107
H03/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-28
25-25
26-24
24-34
32-38
33-38
28-22
39-21
44-34
23-40
38-23
25-25
26-23
21-27
34-36
21-28
49-24
34-31
32-37
35-38
26-27
32-26
23-20
26-26
45-30
40-26
29-43
27-32
37-19
25-25
44-44
29-22
34-27
30-37
33-26
27-25
15-24
34-32
29-31
28-18
237.8Avg total
122.2Scored
115.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (52)114.1111.8225.9+2.367%
Season at home (27)118.3110.8229.1+7.481%
Season away (25)109.6112.8222.4-3.252%
Last 10 (10)122.2115.6237.8+6.680%
Last 5 (5)122.6112.0234.6+10.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)112.8113.8226.6-1.060%
vs Weaker (10)119.8116.0235.8+3.870%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
111-95
111
95
+16
105avg 100
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
113-121
113
121
-8
109avg 100
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
124-98
124
98
+26
124avg 100
A19/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
90-115
90
115
-25
82avg 100
A21/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
100-96
100
96
+4
89avg 100
H22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
98-95
98
95
+3
84avg 100
H25/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
110-105
110
105
+5
103avg 100
H28/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
117-122
117
122
-5
104avg 100
A29/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
100-97
100
97
+3
93avg 100
A01/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
104-106
104
106
-2
91avg 100
A03/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-20
25-25
24-26
34-24
26-38
24-32
30-21
33-30
36-23
34-28
28-25
26-22
19-31
32-29
16-32
23-23
23-32
18-15
28-25
31-24
32-30
18-28
25-24
23-13
26-31
24-28
23-20
37-26
28-26
34-32
24-33
31-31
24-26
31-26
24-27
21-18
22-28
26-23
24-26
32-29
211.7Avg total
106.7Scored
105.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (53)108.4108.1216.5+0.355%
Season at home (26)108.8107.3216.2+1.565%
Season away (27)107.9108.9216.8-1.044%
Last 10 (10)106.7105.0211.7+1.760%
Last 5 (5)105.8105.0210.8+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)105.7105.3211.0+0.367%
vs Similar ◀ (22)107.4105.2212.6+2.264%
vs Weaker (5)109.2112.4221.6-3.240%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +5.4+5.4Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +5.1+5.1
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +5.4+5.4Q1: -2.1-2.1Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +5.1+5.1
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#10
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A14/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
65-76
65
76
-11
H16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
67-74
67
74
-7
H18/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A22/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
83-55
83
55
+28
A24/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
W
58-53
58
53
+5
H26/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
85-56
85
56
+29
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
62-44
62
44
+18
H30/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
D
64-64
64
64
+0
H01/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H03/02
NBA
120.6Avg total
62.5Scored
58.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.656.5113.2+0.143%-
Last 30 at home (13)59.560.7120.2-1.246%-
Last 30 away (17)54.453.4107.8+1.141%-
Last 10 (10)62.558.1120.6+4.440%-
Last 5 (5)63.654.6118.2+9.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)53.555.1108.7-1.640%-
vs Weaker (10)62.859.4122.2+3.450%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
53-45
53
45
+8
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
50-70
50
70
-20
A16/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
70-51
70
51
+19
A19/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
51-60
51
60
-9
A21/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H25/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H28/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
62-58
62
58
+4
A29/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
55-52
55
52
+3
A01/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A03/02
NBA
108.1Avg total
53.0Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.754.1109.8+1.657%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.653.7108.3+0.957%-
Last 30 away (16)56.854.4111.2+2.356%-
Last 10 (10)53.055.1108.1-2.140%-
Last 5 (5)53.055.6108.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)54.056.7110.7-2.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)55.653.7109.3+1.959%-
vs Weaker (5)57.454.2111.6+3.260%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 122.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers51.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.127.6
56.2%
54.5%55.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.117.0
40.4%
35.8%51.0
🏀 Free throws21.616.0
74.1%
78.1%16.0
They take 91.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.029.5
53.6%
54.5%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.610.2
33.3%
35.8%30.6
🏀 Free throws21.517.1
79.5%
78.1%17.1
They take 85.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Feb 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWWWWLWWL
Miami Heat
LWLWWWLWLW
#1
League position
#10
+6.3
Net rating
+1.7
117.1
Offensive rating
109.5
110.8
Defensive rating
107.8
58.2%
Effective FG%
52.3%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
56.4%
13.1%
Turnover %
12.4%
22.2%
Off. rebound %
23.6%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.25
40.4%
3-point %
33.3%
56.7%
Assist %
59.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence117.1 · 109.5Defence110.8 · 107.8Shooting58.2% · 52.3%3-point %40.4% · 33.3%Ball care13.1% · 12.4%Off. rebounds22.2% · 23.6%Free throws0.24 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/23HLos Angeles Clippers106-105
01/02/23HCharlotte Hornets124-115
30/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans135-110
28/01/23AIndiana Pacers141-131
26/01/23HDenver Nuggets107-99
24/01/23ADetroit Pistons150-130
22/01/23ACleveland Cavaliers102-114
18/01/23HToronto Raptors130-122
16/01/23HIndiana Pacers132-119
14/01/23AMiami Heat95-111
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/23ANew York Knicks104-106
01/02/23ACleveland Cavaliers100-97
29/01/23ACharlotte Hornets117-122
28/01/23HOrlando Magic110-105
25/01/23HBoston Celtics98-95
22/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans100-96
21/01/23ADallas Mavericks90-115
19/01/23ANew Orleans Pelicans124-98
16/01/23AAtlanta Hawks113-121
14/01/23HMilwaukee Bucks111-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW67%
HomeWWWWW81%
AwayLLLWW52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games522725
Win %67%81%52%
Points / game114.1118.3109.6
Allowed / game111.8110.8112.8
Point differential+2.3+7.4-3.2
Avg total225.9229.1222.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%48%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won70% (10)50% (4)83% (6)
Overtime %6%0%12%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL55%
HomeWWWWW65%
AwayWLLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532627
Win %55%65%44%
Points / game108.4108.8107.9
Allowed / game108.1107.3108.9
Point differential+0.3+1.5-1.0
Avg total216.5216.2216.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%12%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won61% (28)73% (15)46% (13)
Overtime %6%4%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics53371670%117.7111.9+5.8
2 Denver Nuggets52361669%117.0112.8+4.2
3 Milwaukee Bucks52351767%114.1111.8+2.3
4 Philadelphia 76ers51341767%114.9111.0+3.9
5 Memphis Grizzlies52322062%116.5112.8+3.7
6 Brooklyn Nets52322062%114.4112.3+2.1
7 Cleveland Cavaliers54322259%111.6106.9+4.7
8 Sacramento Kings51292257%119.2116.2+3.0
9 Miami Heat53292455%108.4108.1+0.3
10 Los Angeles Clippers56302654%111.0110.8+0.2
11 Dallas Mavericks53282553%112.3111.8+0.5
12 Phoenix Suns55292653%112.6111.3+1.3
13 New York Knicks54282652%114.5112.9+1.6
14 Atlanta Hawks53272651%116.5116.3+0.1
15 Minnesota Timberwolves55282751%115.2115.2+0.0
16 New Orleans Pelicans54272750%115.1113.8+1.3
17 Utah Jazz54272750%117.6116.5+1.1
18 Portland Trail Blazers52262650%114.5113.8+0.7
19 Golden State Warriors52262650%118.0118.3-0.3
20 Oklahoma City Thunder51242747%116.6115.8+0.8
21 Chicago Bulls51242747%114.3114.1+0.2
22 Los Angeles Lakers54252946%117.1118.4-1.3
23 Indiana Pacers54252946%114.9116.9-1.9
24 Washington Wizards52242846%113.2113.5-0.2
25 Toronto Raptors54243044%113.1112.6+0.5
26 Orlando Magic53213240%111.2114.5-3.2
27 Charlotte Hornets54153928%112.0118.6-6.6
28 San Antonio Spurs53143926%112.8122.5-9.8
29 Detroit Pistons54144026%112.5119.8-7.3
30 Houston Rockets52133925%109.7116.9-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks34283229123
Miami Heat26363023115
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.