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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Apr 2023
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 117-130
24-33 31-35 33-34 29-28
Position#1
Record58-24
FormWWWLL
Points / game116.9
Allowed / game113.3
vs
Position#10
Record45-39
FormWLWLW
Points / game109.3
Allowed / game109.6
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#22
W
144-116
144
116
+28
150avg 108
A25/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
106-129
106
129
-23
97avg 108
A26/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
126-117
126
117
+9
120avg 108
A27/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
149-136
149
136
+13
150avg 108
A29/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
99-140
99
140
-41
80avg 108
H30/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
117-104
117
104
+13
118avg 108
H03/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
140-128
140
128
+12
142avg 108
A04/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
105-92
105
92
+13
100avg 108
H05/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
114-137
114
137
-23
106avg 108
H08/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
105-121
105
121
-16
100avg 108
A09/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
40-25
32-33
43-27
29-31
38-37
28-26
19-34
21-32
31-27
26-24
37-39
32-27
34-30
39-39
46-38
30-29
26-34
21-41
27-39
25-26
41-26
28-27
27-29
21-22
32-29
43-33
39-35
26-31
28-21
21-30
30-25
26-16
31-36
41-35
15-37
27-29
26-35
29-32
24-28
26-26
242.5Avg total
120.5Scored
122.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (82)116.9113.3230.2+3.671%
Season at home (41)118.8112.5231.3+6.378%
Season away (41)115.0114.1229.2+0.963%
Last 10 (10)120.5122.0242.5-1.560%
Last 5 (5)116.2116.4232.6-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)116.3114.5230.8+1.970%
vs Weaker (10)132.9118.9251.8+14.090%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
100-129
100
129
-29
90avg 99
H26/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
92-106
92
106
-14
82avg 99
A28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
92-101
92
101
-9
80avg 99
A29/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
129-122
129
122
+7
122avg 99
H01/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
118-105
118
105
+13
112avg 99
A04/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
129-101
129
101
+28
134avg 99
A06/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
108-114
108
114
-6
96avg 99
A07/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
123-110
123
110
+13
124avg 99
H09/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
105-116
105
116
-11
92avg 99
H11/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
102-91
102
91
+11
97avg 99
H14/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-28
33-37
18-39
13-25
23-24
24-29
20-31
25-22
23-19
23-29
30-28
16-25
44-31
32-33
26-32
27-26
31-27
28-25
21-27
38-26
41-31
26-15
29-32
33-23
23-26
28-27
20-36
37-25
23-24
29-26
32-35
39-25
27-36
23-29
28-26
27-25
29-21
20-23
18-24
35-23
219.3Avg total
109.8Scored
109.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (84)109.3109.6219.0-0.354%
Season at home (43)111.1109.9221.0+1.165%
Season away (41)107.5109.3216.9-1.841%
Last 10 (10)109.8109.5219.3+0.350%
Last 5 (5)113.4106.4219.8+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)109.0110.3219.3-1.333%
vs Similar ◀ (23)111.7113.8225.5-2.252%
vs Weaker (4)107.5102.0209.5+5.575%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -6.8-6.8Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +4.5+4.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -6.8-6.8Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +4.5+4.5
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#22
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A25/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
W
66-63
66
63
+3
A26/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A27/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
73-69
73
69
+4
A29/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
47-75
47
75
-28
H30/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
69-53
69
53
+16
H03/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
75-62
75
62
+13
A04/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H05/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
W
72-71
72
71
+1
H08/04
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
55-67
55
67
-12
A09/04
NBA
125.5Avg total
63.5Scored
62.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.257.0118.3+4.273%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.657.5120.1+5.179%-
Last 30 away (16)60.156.6116.7+3.469%-
Last 10 (10)63.562.0125.5+1.570%-
Last 5 (5)64.060.8124.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)58.457.1115.5+1.260%-
vs Weaker (10)67.056.8123.8+10.2100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#13
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H26/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
47-53
47
53
-6
A28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A29/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
76-64
76
64
+12
H01/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
59-52
59
52
+7
A04/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
67-46
67
46
+21
A06/04
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
L
51-53
51
53
-2
A07/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H09/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H11/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H14/04
NBA
110.6Avg total
56.6Scored
54.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.357.5113.8-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (17)58.859.8118.6-0.947%-
Last 30 away (13)53.054.6107.6-1.638%-
Last 10 (10)56.654.0110.6+2.660%-
Last 5 (5)53.851.6105.4+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)55.060.3115.3-5.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)56.758.1114.8-1.443%-
vs Weaker (4)55.052.2107.2+2.875%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 120.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.629.7
57.6%
54.5%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.815.3
38.4%
35.8%45.9
🏀 Free throws19.915.2
76.4%
78.1%15.2
They take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 109.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.426.6
56.1%
54.5%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.913.3
36.0%
35.8%39.9
🏀 Free throws20.116.7
83.1%
78.1%16.7
They take 84.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Apr 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LLWWWLWWLW
Miami Heat
WLWLWWWLLL
#1
League position
#10
-1.5
Net rating
+0.3
117.2
Offensive rating
114.6
118.6
Defensive rating
114.3
57.6%
Effective FG%
55.2%
56.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.6%
12.8%
Turnover %
12.3%
24.7%
Off. rebound %
21.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.24
38.4%
3-point %
36.0%
64.7%
Assist %
62.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence117.2 · 114.6Defence118.6 · 114.3Shooting57.6% · 55.2%3-point %38.4% · 36.0%Ball care12.8% · 12.3%Off. rebounds24.7% · 21.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Milwaukee Bucks wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/04/23AToronto Raptors105-121
08/04/23HMemphis Grizzlies114-137
05/04/23HChicago Bulls105-92
04/04/23AWashington Wizards140-128
03/04/23HPhiladelphia 76ers117-104
30/03/23HBoston Celtics99-140
29/03/23AIndiana Pacers149-136
27/03/23ADetroit Pistons126-117
26/03/23ADenver Nuggets106-129
25/03/23AUtah Jazz144-116
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/04/23HChicago Bulls102-91
11/04/23HAtlanta Hawks105-116
09/04/23HOrlando Magic123-110
07/04/23AWashington Wizards108-114
06/04/23APhiladelphia 76ers129-101
04/04/23ADetroit Pistons118-105
01/04/23HDallas Mavericks129-122
29/03/23ANew York Knicks92-101
28/03/23AToronto Raptors92-106
26/03/23HBrooklyn Nets100-129

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL71%
HomeWLWWL78%
AwayLWWWL63%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games824141
Win %71%78%63%
Points / game116.9118.8115.0
Allowed / game113.3112.5114.1
Point differential+3.6+6.3+0.9
Avg total230.2231.3229.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%44%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won69% (13)57% (7)83% (6)
Overtime %6%2%10%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW54%
HomeLWWLW65%
AwayLLWWL41%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844341
Win %54%65%41%
Points / game109.3111.1107.5
Allowed / game109.6109.9109.3
Point differential-0.3+1.1-1.8
Avg total219.0221.0216.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (39)70% (23)50% (16)
Overtime %6%2%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks82582471%116.9113.3+3.6
2 Boston Celtics83582570%117.9111.3+6.6
3 Philadelphia 76ers83552866%115.3110.8+4.5
4 Denver Nuggets82532965%115.8112.5+3.3
5 Cleveland Cavaliers83513261%112.1106.8+5.3
6 Memphis Grizzlies83513261%116.9113.2+3.7
7 Sacramento Kings83493459%120.8118.1+2.7
8 New York Knicks83483558%115.8112.9+2.9
9 Phoenix Suns82453755%113.6111.6+2.1
10 Brooklyn Nets83453854%113.2112.6+0.6
11 Los Angeles Clippers82443854%113.6113.1+0.5
12 Los Angeles Lakers84453954%117.2116.4+0.8
13 Miami Heat84453954%109.3109.6-0.3
14 Golden State Warriors83443953%119.0117.2+1.7
15 Minnesota Timberwolves84434151%115.7115.5+0.2
16 New Orleans Pelicans83424151%114.4112.6+1.8
17 Atlanta Hawks84424250%118.2117.9+0.3
18 Toronto Raptors83414249%112.8111.3+1.4
19 Chicago Bulls84414349%112.8111.6+1.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder84414349%117.3116.5+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks82384446%114.2114.1+0.1
22 Utah Jazz82374545%117.1118.0-0.9
23 Washington Wizards82354743%113.2114.4-1.2
24 Indiana Pacers82354743%116.3119.5-3.2
25 Orlando Magic82344841%111.4114.0-2.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers82334940%113.4117.4-4.0
27 Charlotte Hornets82275533%111.0117.2-6.2
28 Houston Rockets82226027%110.7118.6-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs82226027%113.0123.1-10.0
30 Detroit Pistons82176521%110.3118.5-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks24313329117
Miami Heat33353428130
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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