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Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 29 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 124-133
27-34 41-25 20-40 36-34
Position#17
Record25-21
FormLWLWW
Points / game120.0
Allowed / game118.1
vs
Position#13
Record22-21
FormWLLLL
Points / game114.9
Allowed / game115.2
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Orlando Magic
10 Mar 2027
MIA v ORL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
MIA117
ORL121
28 Jan 2026
MIA124
ORL133
27 Jan 2025
MIA125
ORL119
23 Oct 2024
MIA97
ORL116
06 Feb 2024
MIA121
ORL95
12 Jan 2024
MIA99
ORL96
09 Apr 2023
MIA123
ORL110
27 Jan 2023
MIA110
ORL105
26 Dec 2021
MIA93
ORL83
25 Oct 2021
MIA107
ORL90
11 Mar 2021
MIA111
ORL103
04 Mar 2020
MIA116
ORL113
27 Jan 2020
MIA113
ORL92
26 Mar 2019
MIA99
ORL104
04 Dec 2018
MIA90
ORL105
05 Feb 2018
MIA109
ORL111
26 Dec 2017
MIA107
ORL89
13 Feb 2017
MIA107
ORL116
20 Dec 2016
MIA130
ORL136
10 Apr 2016
MIA118
ORL96
25 Mar 2016
MIA108
ORL97
13 Apr 2015
MIA100
ORL93
29 Dec 2014
MIA101
ORL102
01 Mar 2014
MIA112
ORL98
23 Nov 2013
MIA101
ORL99
17 Apr 2013
MIA105
ORL93
06 Mar 2013
MIA97
ORL96
18 Mar 2012
MIA91
ORL81
19 Feb 2012
MIA90
ORL78
18 Dec 2011
MIA118
ORL85
03 Mar 2011
MIA96
ORL99
29 Oct 2010
MIA96
ORL70
18 Mar 2010
MIA102
ORL108
17 Dec 2009
MIA104
ORL86
30 Mar 2009
MIA95
ORL101
24 Jan 2009
MIA103
ORL97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
99-123
99
123
-24
84avg 106
A11/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
112-124
112
124
-12
113avg 106
A12/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
127-121
127
121
+6
120avg 106
H14/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
114-119
114
119
-5
104avg 106
H16/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
122-120
122
120
+2
104avg 106
H18/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
112-135
112
135
-23
105avg 106
A20/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
130-117
130
117
+13
123avg 106
A21/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
110-127
110
127
-17
99avg 106
A23/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
147-116
147
116
+31
144avg 106
A25/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
111-102
111
102
+9
104avg 106
A26/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-36
27-25
27-38
27-24
34-32
25-22
26-39
27-31
36-28
35-26
21-38
35-29
36-25
28-29
29-29
21-36
30-37
30-28
35-30
27-25
34-36
32-34
27-34
19-31
32-25
45-39
23-25
30-28
31-38
32-26
29-39
18-24
35-34
38-18
35-37
39-27
32-21
26-27
24-29
29-25
238.8Avg total
118.4Scored
120.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (46)120.0118.1238.1+1.954%
Season at home (22)121.8117.3239.1+4.568%
Season away (24)118.4118.8237.1-0.442%
Last 10 (10)118.4120.4238.8-2.050%
Last 5 (5)122.0119.4241.4+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)120.3124.9245.1-4.629%
vs Similar ◀ (13)115.5117.7233.2-2.246%
vs Weaker (10)118.0112.3230.3+5.770%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
135-127
135
127
+8
134avg 101
H04/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
112-120
112
120
-8
105avg 101
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
104-103 OT
104
103
+1
98avg 101
A08/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
91-103
91
103
-12
78avg 101
H10/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
128-118
128
118
+10
125avg 101
H11/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
118-111
118
111
+7
114avg 101
H15/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
109-126
109
126
-17
101avg 101
A18/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
97-124
97
124
-27
86avg 101
H23/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
105-119
105
119
-14
93avg 101
H25/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
98-114
98
114
-16
82avg 101
A27/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-36
41-22
38-42
28-27
29-30
21-32
37-39
25-19
21-23
27-20
31-21
14-29
28-24
26-29
25-30
12-20
26-26
32-33
33-39
37-20
23-39
35-28
26-12
34-32
23-40
30-32
28-28
28-26
20-35
21-27
26-35
30-27
23-25
25-30
22-27
35-37
32-22
24-39
25-30
17-23
226.2Avg total
109.7Scored
116.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (43)114.9115.2230.1-0.351%
Season at home (21)114.9114.0228.9+0.862%
Season away (22)114.9116.3231.2-1.541%
Last 10 (10)109.7116.5226.2-6.840%
Last 5 (5)105.4118.8224.2-13.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)117.6119.6237.2-2.038%
vs Similar ◀ (12)109.1111.2220.3-2.242%
vs Weaker (10)118.5118.3236.8+0.270%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -6.2-6.2Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.0+0.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -6.2-6.2Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.0+0.0
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
45-61
45
61
-16
A11/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A12/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
71-54
71
54
+17
H14/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
64-54
64
54
+10
H16/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-65
60
65
-5
H18/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
66-70
66
70
-4
A20/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A21/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A23/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
73-52
73
52
+21
A25/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
58-48
58
48
+10
A26/01
NBA
122.2Avg total
63.6Scored
58.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.358.0118.3+2.253%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.157.2116.4+1.950%-
Last 30 away (16)61.258.8120.0+2.556%-
Last 10 (10)63.658.6122.2+5.060%-
Last 5 (5)67.459.6127.0+7.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)60.760.3121.0+0.443%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)60.857.2118.1+3.654%-
vs Weaker (10)59.257.5116.7+1.760%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H04/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
50-62
50
62
-12
A07/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A08/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H10/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
58-59
58
59
-1
H11/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
58-67
58
67
-9
H15/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
53-72
53
72
-19
A18/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
41-62
41
62
-21
H23/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
48-55
48
55
-7
H25/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
56-61
56
61
-5
A27/01
NBA
112.7Avg total
53.5Scored
59.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.559.0116.5-1.543%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.458.5113.9-3.129%-
Last 30 away (16)59.459.4118.8-0.156%-
Last 10 (10)53.559.2112.7-5.730%-
Last 5 (5)51.263.4114.6-12.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)55.161.5116.6-6.438%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)58.656.6115.2+2.050%-
vs Weaker (10)58.159.9118.0-1.840%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.028.3
51.5%
54.8%56.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.614.0
34.5%
35.8%42.0
🏀 Free throws25.719.8
77.0%
78.1%19.8
They take 95.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 109.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.628.4
52.0%
54.8%56.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.011.2
32.9%
35.8%33.6
🏀 Free throws23.719.3
81.4%
78.1%19.3
They take 88.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWLWLL
Orlando Magic
LLLLWWLWLW
#17
League position
#13
-1.9
Net rating
-6.8
112.0
Offensive rating
109.3
113.9
Defensive rating
116.1
51.6%
Effective FG%
51.0%
54.6%
Opp. effective FG%
57.7%
12.8%
Turnover %
14.3%
32.1%
Off. rebound %
27.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.5%
3-point %
32.9%
66.4%
Assist %
66.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence112.0 · 109.3Defence113.9 · 116.1Shooting51.6% · 51.0%3-point %34.5% · 32.9%Ball care12.8% · 14.3%Off. rebounds32.1% · 27.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Orlando Magic
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami Heat wins
5
Orlando Magic wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/26APhoenix Suns111-102
25/01/26AUtah Jazz147-116
23/01/26APortland Trail Blazers110-127
21/01/26ASacramento Kings130-117
20/01/26AGolden State Warriors112-135
18/01/26HOklahoma City Thunder122-120
16/01/26HBoston Celtics114-119
14/01/26HPhoenix Suns127-121
12/01/26AOklahoma City Thunder112-124
11/01/26AIndiana Pacers99-123
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/26ACleveland Cavaliers98-114
25/01/26HCleveland Cavaliers105-119
23/01/26HCharlotte Hornets97-124
18/01/26AMemphis Grizzlies109-126
15/01/26HMemphis Grizzlies118-111
11/01/26HNew Orleans Pelicans128-118
10/01/26HPhiladelphia 76ers91-103
08/01/26ABrooklyn Nets104-103 OT
07/01/26AWashington Wizards112-120
04/01/26HIndiana Pacers135-127

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLWWLW68%
AwayLWLWW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games462224
Win %54%68%42%
Points / game120.0121.8118.4
Allowed / game118.1117.3118.8
Point differential+1.9+4.5-0.4
Avg total238.1239.1237.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%32%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (11)75% (8)33% (3)
Overtime %2%5%0%
Orlando Magic
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL51%
HomeLWWLL62%
AwayLLWLL41%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games432122
Win %51%62%41%
Points / game114.9114.9114.9
Allowed / game115.2114.0116.3
Point differential-0.3+0.8-1.5
Avg total230.1228.9231.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%19%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (15)62% (8)71% (7)
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder4637980%120.3108.0+12.4
2 Detroit Pistons45341176%117.2110.0+7.2
3 Denver Nuggets47311666%120.4116.0+4.3
4 San Antonio Spurs44291566%117.2112.3+4.9
5 Houston Rockets44281664%116.7110.5+6.2
6 Boston Celtics46291763%116.6109.9+6.7
7 Los Angeles Lakers45281762%115.8116.2-0.4
8 Toronto Raptors47291862%114.3111.8+2.5
9 Phoenix Suns46281861%114.5111.0+3.5
10 Minnesota Timberwolves47281960%119.0114.3+4.6
11 Cleveland Cavaliers49292059%119.2116.1+3.1
12 New York Knicks44261859%117.2113.2+4.0
13 Miami Heat46252154%120.0118.1+1.9
14 Philadelphia 76ers46252154%116.6115.9+0.7
15 Golden State Warriors48262254%116.0113.4+2.6
16 Orlando Magic43222151%114.9115.2-0.3
17 Chicago Bulls47232449%117.7119.8-2.1
18 Atlanta Hawks48232548%117.8118.7-0.9
19 Portland Trail Blazers48232548%115.5117.4-1.9
20 Los Angeles Clippers46222448%112.7112.8-0.1
21 Dallas Mavericks46192741%114.3116.5-2.3
22 Memphis Grizzlies44182641%115.2116.4-1.3
23 Charlotte Hornets47192840%116.3115.0+1.3
24 Milwaukee Bucks45182740%112.1116.0-3.9
25 Utah Jazz47153232%118.7127.5-8.9
26 Brooklyn Nets45123327%107.8114.9-7.1
27 Indiana Pacers48123625%110.3118.3-8.0
28 Sacramento Kings48123625%110.5120.8-10.3
29 New Orleans Pelicans49123724%114.4121.2-6.8
30 Washington Wizards45113424%112.3122.8-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat27412036124
Orlando Magic34254034133
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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