PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 11 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 22:00
Scheduled
Position#18
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
5.0/10
Around normal
Position#23
Record3-7
FormLLLLW
Points / game107.0
Allowed / game114.6
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Orlando Magic
10 Mar 2027
MIA v ORL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
MIA117
ORL121
28 Jan 2026
MIA124
ORL133
27 Jan 2025
MIA125
ORL119
23 Oct 2024
MIA97
ORL116
06 Feb 2024
MIA121
ORL95
12 Jan 2024
MIA99
ORL96
09 Apr 2023
MIA123
ORL110
27 Jan 2023
MIA110
ORL105
26 Dec 2021
MIA93
ORL83
25 Oct 2021
MIA107
ORL90
11 Mar 2021
MIA111
ORL103
04 Mar 2020
MIA116
ORL113
27 Jan 2020
MIA113
ORL92
26 Mar 2019
MIA99
ORL104
04 Dec 2018
MIA90
ORL105
05 Feb 2018
MIA109
ORL111
26 Dec 2017
MIA107
ORL89
13 Feb 2017
MIA107
ORL116
20 Dec 2016
MIA130
ORL136
10 Apr 2016
MIA118
ORL96
25 Mar 2016
MIA108
ORL97
13 Apr 2015
MIA100
ORL93
29 Dec 2014
MIA101
ORL102
01 Mar 2014
MIA112
ORL98
23 Nov 2013
MIA101
ORL99
17 Apr 2013
MIA105
ORL93
06 Mar 2013
MIA97
ORL96
18 Mar 2012
MIA91
ORL81
19 Feb 2012
MIA90
ORL78
18 Dec 2011
MIA118
ORL85
03 Mar 2011
MIA96
ORL99
29 Oct 2010
MIA96
ORL70
18 Mar 2010
MIA102
ORL108
17 Dec 2009
MIA104
ORL86
30 Mar 2009
MIA95
ORL101
24 Jan 2009
MIA103
ORL97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Orlando Magic win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 107
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 107
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 107
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 107
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 107
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 107
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 107
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 107
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 107
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 107
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar ◀ (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
125-132
125
132
-7
119avg 99
H21/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#5
L
93-115
93
115
-22
83avg 99
H23/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#13
W
111-102
111
102
+9
108avg 99
A25/10
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
L
99-129
99
129
-30
86avg 99
A28/10
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
W
121-114
121
114
+7
120avg 99
A30/10
NBA
Boston Celtics
#2
L
97-108
97
108
-11
91avg 99
H01/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
L
94-103
94
103
-9
84avg 99
H03/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
L
104-117
104
117
-13
102avg 99
A06/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
119-126 OT
119
126
-7
104avg 99
A08/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
107-100
107
100
+7
98avg 99
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-28
29-44
38-27
25-33
20-26
25-31
15-29
33-29
21-28
27-24
23-23
40-27
25-32
28-37
23-34
23-26
31-27
33-28
31-33
26-26
23-24
27-31
24-22
23-31
33-28
26-32
9-19
26-24
26-33
25-30
22-33
31-21
19-31
22-26
37-20
32-33
34-27
23-25
27-24
23-24
221.6Avg total
107.0Scored
114.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)107.0114.6221.6-7.630%
Season at home (4)102.2114.5216.8-12.20%
Season away (6)110.2114.7224.8-4.550%
Last 10 (10)107.0114.6221.6-7.630%
Last 5 (5)104.2110.8215.0-6.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)105.0110.2215.2-5.238%
vs Similar ◀ (9)109.1117.2226.3-8.133%
vs Weaker (5)121.0111.0232.0+10.0100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +0.8+0.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -4.3-4.3Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +0.8+0.8
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
62-72
62
72
-10
H21/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#5
L
45-57
45
57
-12
H23/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#13
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A25/10
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
L
53-69
53
69
-16
A28/10
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
W
64-55
64
55
+9
A30/10
NBA
Boston Celtics
#2
L
50-55
50
55
-5
H01/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H03/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A06/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
41-57
41
57
-16
A08/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
57-52
57
52
+5
A11/11
NBA
112.2Avg total
53.0Scored
59.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.357.2114.4+0.147%-
Last 30 at home (13)60.055.4115.4+4.662%-
Last 30 away (17)55.258.5113.7-3.435%-
Last 10 (10)53.059.2112.2-6.220%-
Last 5 (5)51.657.4109.0-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)54.955.7110.6-0.844%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)59.060.2119.2-1.233%-
vs Weaker (5)61.856.4118.2+5.480%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.0%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
76.8%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 102.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.023.4
52.0%
54.0%46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.513.1
33.2%
35.0%39.3
🏀 Free throws23.416.4
70.1%
76.8%16.4
They take 84.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Orlando Magic
WLLLLWLWLL
#18
League position
#23
-0.5
Net rating
-10.4
111.7
Offensive rating
103.2
112.2
Defensive rating
113.5
54.5%
Effective FG%
50.9%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
11.9%
Turnover %
16.2%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
25.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.1%
3-point %
33.2%
66.3%
Assist %
67.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 103.2Defence112.2 · 113.5Shooting54.5% · 50.9%3-point %35.1% · 33.2%Ball care11.9% · 16.2%Off. rebounds19.3% · 25.5%Free throws0.27 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Orlando Magic
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Orlando Magic wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ASacramento Kings107-100
08/11/26AGolden State Warriors119-126 OT
06/11/26APhoenix Suns104-117
03/11/26HWashington Wizards94-103
01/11/26HBoston Celtics97-108
30/10/26AToronto Raptors121-114
28/10/26AToronto Raptors99-129
25/10/26ANew York Knicks111-102
23/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves93-115
21/10/26HAtlanta Hawks125-132

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Orlando Magic
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW30%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %30%0%50%
Points / game107.0102.2110.2
Allowed / game114.6114.5114.7
Point differential-7.6-12.2-4.5
Avg total221.6216.8224.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %10%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1210283%122.1114.4+7.7
2 Boston Celtics119282%115.7104.0+11.7
3 San Antonio Spurs119282%118.7107.0+11.7
4 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
5 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
6 Golden State Warriors118373%120.4111.2+9.2
7 Houston Rockets118373%115.5106.4+9.1
8 Oklahoma City Thunder118373%111.4105.9+5.5
9 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
10 Memphis Grizzlies107370%117.9110.8+7.1
11 Portland Trail Blazers107370%119.7112.7+7.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 New York Knicks106460%110.6102.3+8.3
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 Denver Nuggets95456%113.6112.8+0.8
16 Toronto Raptors105550%116.6113.3+3.3
17 Cleveland Cavaliers115645%116.5115.0+1.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 New Orleans Pelicans114736%117.5122.4-4.9
21 Washington Wizards114736%108.1113.4-5.3
22 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
23 Orlando Magic103730%107.0114.6-7.6
24 Indiana Pacers113827%111.4115.2-3.8
25 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
26 Brooklyn Nets102820%106.7115.7-9.0
27 Chicago Bulls91811%112.7129.3-16.7
28 Utah Jazz111109%106.5117.6-11.2
29 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
30 Milwaukee Bucks111109%106.3121.2-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.