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Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 117-121
27-41 28-30 28-27 34-23
Position#17
Record38-28
FormWWWWW
Points / game120.7
Allowed / game116.5
Miami Heat
USA
vs
Orlando Magic 🏆
USA
Position#13
Record36-27
FormWWWWW
Points / game115.5
Allowed / game113.8
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Orlando Magic
10 Mar 2027
MIA v ORL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
MIA117
ORL121
28 Jan 2026
MIA124
ORL133
27 Jan 2025
MIA125
ORL119
23 Oct 2024
MIA97
ORL116
06 Feb 2024
MIA121
ORL95
12 Jan 2024
MIA99
ORL96
09 Apr 2023
MIA123
ORL110
27 Jan 2023
MIA110
ORL105
26 Dec 2021
MIA93
ORL83
25 Oct 2021
MIA107
ORL90
11 Mar 2021
MIA111
ORL103
04 Mar 2020
MIA116
ORL113
27 Jan 2020
MIA113
ORL92
26 Mar 2019
MIA99
ORL104
04 Dec 2018
MIA90
ORL105
05 Feb 2018
MIA109
ORL111
26 Dec 2017
MIA107
ORL89
13 Feb 2017
MIA107
ORL116
20 Dec 2016
MIA130
ORL136
10 Apr 2016
MIA118
ORL96
25 Mar 2016
MIA108
ORL97
13 Apr 2015
MIA100
ORL93
29 Dec 2014
MIA101
ORL102
01 Mar 2014
MIA112
ORL98
23 Nov 2013
MIA101
ORL99
17 Apr 2013
MIA105
ORL93
06 Mar 2013
MIA97
ORL96
18 Mar 2012
MIA91
ORL81
19 Feb 2012
MIA90
ORL78
18 Dec 2011
MIA118
ORL85
03 Mar 2011
MIA96
ORL99
29 Oct 2010
MIA96
ORL70
18 Mar 2010
MIA102
ORL108
17 Dec 2009
MIA104
ORL86
30 Mar 2009
MIA95
ORL101
24 Jan 2009
MIA103
ORL97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-120
136
120
+16
140avg 109
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
117-128
117
128
-11
113avg 109
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
117-124
117
124
-7
110avg 109
A27/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
115-105
115
105
+10
106avg 109
H28/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
124-98
124
98
+26
120avg 109
H04/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
126-110
126
110
+16
123avg 109
H06/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
128-120
128
120
+8
120avg 109
A07/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
121-110
121
110
+11
118avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
150-129
150
129
+21
146avg 109
H10/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
112-105
112
105
+7
106avg 109
H12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
39-33
34-35
39-26
24-26
29-30
29-33
35-26
24-39
35-36
22-37
34-26
26-25
32-28
19-24
34-31
30-22
34-28
35-26
22-21
33-23
31-26
29-30
35-27
31-27
30-27
28-34
40-40
30-19
34-16
33-32
36-32
18-30
40-29
36-33
37-35
37-32
31-21
28-30
26-26
27-28
239.5Avg total
124.6Scored
114.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (66)120.7116.5237.2+4.158%
Season at home (34)122.5116.1238.6+6.468%
Season away (32)118.7116.9235.6+1.847%
Last 10 (10)124.6114.9239.5+9.780%
Last 5 (5)127.4114.8242.2+12.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)113.0114.2227.2-1.240%
vs Similar ◀ (10)118.7119.1237.8-0.450%
vs Weaker (15)125.0113.5238.5+11.573%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
111-109
111
109
+2
105avg 105
A23/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
110-109
110
109
+1
101avg 105
A25/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
108-113
108
113
-5
97avg 105
H27/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
92-106
92
106
-14
82avg 105
H01/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
126-109
126
109
+17
130avg 105
H04/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
115-114
115
114
+1
109avg 105
H06/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
119-92
119
92
+27
119avg 105
A07/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
130-91
130
91
+39
135avg 105
A09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
128-122
128
122
+6
124avg 105
H11/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
136-131 OT
136
131
+5
129avg 105
H12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-25
28-28
31-36
23-20
25-33
28-23
26-24
31-29
29-22
24-21
27-38
28-32
26-23
31-27
18-31
17-25
27-24
30-30
40-27
29-28
26-33
34-29
31-26
24-26
27-30
33-20
30-28
29-14
25-15
42-40
33-15
30-21
38-35
24-27
34-27
32-33
36-26
27-30
33-25
27-42
227.1Avg total
117.5Scored
109.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)115.5113.8229.3+1.757%
Season at home (32)116.0113.8229.7+2.266%
Season away (31)115.0113.9228.9+1.148%
Last 10 (10)117.5109.6227.1+7.980%
Last 5 (5)125.6110.0235.6+15.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)98.8114.8213.5-16.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)112.0113.5225.5-1.555%
vs Weaker (15)120.5111.6232.1+8.980%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.1+6.1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +0.0+0.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.1+6.1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +0.0+0.0
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
57-73
57
73
-16
A27/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H28/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
69-54
69
54
+15
H04/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
60-56
60
56
+4
H06/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A07/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
67-48
67
48
+19
H08/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
76-62
76
62
+14
H10/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
59-51
59
51
+8
H12/03
NBA
121.6Avg total
62.8Scored
58.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.356.8119.1+5.567%-
Last 30 at home (15)63.056.5119.5+6.573%-
Last 30 away (15)61.657.1118.7+4.560%-
Last 10 (10)62.858.8121.6+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)64.055.6119.6+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)61.851.8113.6+10.080%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)59.959.9119.8+0.040%-
vs Weaker (15)64.156.4120.5+7.780%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A23/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
53-56
53
56
-3
A25/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H27/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H01/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
57-54
57
54
+3
H04/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
60-62
60
62
-2
H06/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
60-50
60
50
+10
A07/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
67-55
67
55
+12
A09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
D
62-62
62
62
+0
H11/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H12/03
NBA
113.0Avg total
58.9Scored
54.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.456.5111.9-1.147%-
Last 30 at home (17)55.455.8111.2-0.441%-
Last 30 away (13)55.457.4112.8-2.054%-
Last 10 (10)58.954.1113.0+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)62.457.0119.4+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)53.055.2108.2-2.275%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)53.756.4110.1-2.636%-
vs Weaker (15)57.356.9114.2+0.347%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 124.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws23.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.730.2
55.2%
54.8%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.313.6
36.5%
35.8%40.8
🏀 Free throws29.023.4
80.7%
78.1%23.4
They take 92.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 117.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws23.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.630.3
55.5%
54.8%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.511.3
34.8%
35.8%33.9
🏀 Free throws29.523.0
78.0%
78.1%23.0
They take 87.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWWWWWLLW
Orlando Magic
WWWWWWLLWW
#17
League position
#13
+9.2
Net rating
+7.8
117.7
Offensive rating
115.6
108.6
Defensive rating
107.8
55.0%
Effective FG%
54.2%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
12.4%
Turnover %
11.9%
34.3%
Off. rebound %
27.1%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.34
36.5%
3-point %
34.8%
66.4%
Assist %
66.8%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence117.7 · 115.6Defence108.6 · 107.8Shooting55.0% · 54.2%3-point %36.5% · 34.8%Ball care12.4% · 11.9%Off. rebounds34.3% · 27.1%Free throws0.32 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Orlando Magic
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Orlando Magic wins
DateGameScore
29/01/26Miami Heat v Orlando Magic124-133
06/12/25Orlando Magic v Miami Heat106-105
22/10/25Orlando Magic v Miami Heat125-121
28/01/25Miami Heat v Orlando Magic125-119 OT
27/12/24Orlando Magic v Miami Heat88-89
22/12/24Orlando Magic v Miami Heat121-114
23/10/24Miami Heat v Orlando Magic97-116
07/02/24Miami Heat v Orlando Magic121-95
21/01/24Orlando Magic v Miami Heat105-87
13/01/24Miami Heat v Orlando Magic99-96
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/26HMilwaukee Bucks112-105
10/03/26HWashington Wizards150-129
08/03/26HDetroit Pistons121-110
07/03/26ACharlotte Hornets128-120
06/03/26HBrooklyn Nets126-110
04/03/26HBrooklyn Nets124-98
28/02/26HHouston Rockets115-105
27/02/26APhiladelphia 76ers117-124
25/02/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-128
22/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-120
Orlando Magiclast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/26HWashington Wizards136-131 OT
11/03/26HCleveland Cavaliers128-122
09/03/26AMilwaukee Bucks130-91
07/03/26AMinnesota Timberwolves119-92
06/03/26HDallas Mavericks115-114
04/03/26HWashington Wizards126-109
01/03/26HDetroit Pistons92-106
27/02/26HHouston Rockets108-113
25/02/26ALos Angeles Lakers110-109
23/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers111-109

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW58%
HomeWWWWW68%
AwayWWLLW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games663432
Win %58%68%47%
Points / game120.7122.5118.7
Allowed / game116.5116.1116.9
Point differential+4.1+6.4+1.8
Avg total237.2238.6235.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%41%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)67% (9)40% (5)
Overtime %2%3%0%
Orlando Magic
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW57%
HomeLWWWW66%
AwayLWWWW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633231
Win %57%66%48%
Points / game115.5116.0115.0
Allowed / game113.8113.8113.9
Point differential+1.7+2.2+1.1
Avg total229.3229.7228.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%25%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won68% (22)67% (12)70% (10)
Overtime %8%3%13%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder65511478%118.4108.0+10.4
2 Detroit Pistons66481873%117.4109.6+7.7
3 San Antonio Spurs65471872%118.8111.7+7.0
4 Boston Celtics67442366%114.2107.0+7.2
5 Los Angeles Lakers65412463%116.3114.9+1.4
6 New York Knicks66412562%116.7110.7+6.1
7 Houston Rockets66412562%114.1109.9+4.2
8 Cleveland Cavaliers67412661%119.1114.6+4.4
9 Denver Nuggets67412661%120.6116.5+4.1
10 Minnesota Timberwolves67412661%118.7115.1+3.5
11 Phoenix Suns66392759%112.9110.8+2.1
12 Miami Heat66382858%120.7116.5+4.1
13 Orlando Magic63362757%115.5113.8+1.7
14 Toronto Raptors65372857%113.7111.9+1.9
15 Atlanta Hawks67363154%117.7116.6+1.1
16 Philadelphia 76ers67363154%115.7116.2-0.5
17 Los Angeles Clippers66343252%113.5112.5+1.0
18 Charlotte Hornets68343450%115.5112.3+3.2
19 Golden State Warriors66323448%115.2114.4+0.8
20 Portland Trail Blazers67323548%115.3117.7-2.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks66273941%110.8116.0-5.2
22 Chicago Bulls67274040%115.7120.2-4.5
23 Memphis Grizzlies66234335%115.7118.4-2.7
24 Dallas Mavericks67224533%112.9118.0-5.1
25 New Orleans Pelicans68224632%115.4119.8-4.4
26 Utah Jazz67204730%117.4125.0-7.7
27 Brooklyn Nets67175025%106.7115.6-8.9
28 Washington Wizards66165024%112.7123.7-11.0
29 Sacramento Kings67165124%110.6120.9-10.2
30 Indiana Pacers67155222%111.0119.7-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat27282834117
Orlando Magic41302723121
← all games of the day
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