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Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 04 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record5-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game99.1
Allowed / game88.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#1
Record7-0
FormWWWLW
Points / game106.3
Allowed / game85.3
SpainACBRound 15· Roig Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Valencia v Real Madrid
01 Apr 2027
VAL v MAD
upcoming
04 Jan 2027
VAL v MAD
upcoming
22 May 2026
VAL90
MAD105
25 Apr 2026
VAL82
MAD96
11 Nov 2025
VAL89
MAD76
25 Jun 2025
VAL70
MAD81
22 Dec 2024
VAL85
MAD84
10 May 2024
VAL99
MAD93
14 Nov 2023
VAL73
MAD76
12 May 2023
VAL68
MAD79
22 Nov 2022
VAL73
MAD80
10 Oct 2021
VAL79
MAD93
08 Jun 2021
VAL85
MAD67
19 Feb 2021
VAL89
MAD78
01 Nov 2020
VAL78
MAD86
05 Oct 2018
VAL70
MAD88
20 Mar 2018
VAL96
MAD88
15 Oct 2017
VAL82
MAD86
16 Jun 2017
VAL87
MAD76
14 Jun 2017
VAL81
MAD64
06 Oct 2016
VAL75
MAD94
09 Jun 2016
VAL80
MAD82
07 Jun 2016
VAL87
MAD86
28 Feb 2016
VAL94
MAD95
11 Jun 2015
VAL84
MAD90
09 Jun 2015
VAL100
MAD103
15 Feb 2015
VAL87
MAD99
22 Dec 2013
VAL75
MAD82
07 Apr 2013
VAL88
MAD79
11 Mar 2012
VAL83
MAD66
31 Mar 2011
VAL81
MAD72
29 Mar 2011
VAL66
MAD75
19 Feb 2011
VAL59
MAD52
13 Mar 2010
VAL67
MAD78
19 Nov 2008
VAL82
MAD66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valencia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Olympiacos
#4
L
97-102 OT
97
102
-5
86avg 94
H13/10
Euroleague
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
L
88-91
88
91
-3
79avg 94
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
116-93
116
93
+23
113avg 94
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#12
W
104-93
104
93
+11
98avg 94
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#3
W
84-75
84
75
+9
69avg 94
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
86-78
86
78
+8
73avg 94
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#6
L
94-98
94
98
-4
86avg 94
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
W
111-79
111
79
+32
107avg 94
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
84-73
84
73
+11
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
100-93
100
93
+7
no box
A08/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-17
28-17
12-25
19-31
23-31
25-19
24-21
16-20
25-14
33-22
28-24
30-33
32-26
25-28
26-16
21-23
27-19
14-16
18-18
25-22
19-9
17-16
24-21
26-32
25-30
17-14
26-25
26-29
20-21
26-18
31-29
34-11
24-15
16-22
11-22
33-14
22-27
19-25
30-20
29-21
183.9Avg total
96.4Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)99.188.0187.1+11.171%
Season at home (3)100.091.0191.0+9.067%
Season away (4)98.585.8184.2+12.875%
Last 10 (10)96.487.5183.9+8.970%
Last 5 (5)95.084.2179.2+10.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (5)90.088.4178.4+1.660%
vs Weaker (25)98.987.4186.3+11.580%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
98-89
98
89
+9
95avg 91
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 91
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 91
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 91
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 91
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 91
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 91
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 91
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-25
32-15
31-27
14-22
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
193.1Avg total
105.4Scored
87.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)106.385.3191.6+21.0100%
Season at home (5)101.680.8182.4+20.8100%
Season away (2)118.096.5214.5+21.5100%
Last 10 (10)105.487.7193.1+17.790%
Last 5 (5)98.285.4183.6+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)94.292.1186.3+2.140%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)99.889.7189.5+10.265%
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +6.8+6.8Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +6.8+6.8Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
ValenciaReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olympiacos
#4
W
59-34
59
34
+25
H13/10
Euroleague
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
58-36
58
36
+22
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#12
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#3
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#6
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A08/11
ACB
87.4Avg total
46.8Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.341.889.1+5.573%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.441.090.4+8.473%-
Last 30 away (15)45.142.687.7+2.573%-
Last 10 (10)46.840.687.4+6.270%-
Last 5 (5)41.039.480.4+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (5)47.839.287.0+8.680%-
vs Weaker (25)47.242.389.5+4.872%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
94.2Avg total
51.8Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.044.693.6+4.370%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.543.492.9+6.173%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)51.842.494.2+9.480%-
Last 5 (5)47.441.889.2+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)46.647.193.7-0.560%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)50.143.493.5+6.875%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 95.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.7 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.025.0
56.8%
55.8%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.1
34.6%
36.2%30.3
🏀 Free throws20.715.6
75.4%
76.0%15.6
They take 73.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.7 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.8%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
36.2%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
76.0%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valencia
WWWLWWWWLL
Real Madrid
WLWWWWWWWW
#2
League position
#1
+8.9
Net rating
+23.0
108.3
Offensive rating
114.6
99.4
Defensive rating
91.6
54.8%
Effective FG%
60.2%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
8.8%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.33
34.6%
3-point %
41.9%
51.0%
Assist %
62.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 114.6Defence99.4 · 91.6Shooting54.8% · 60.2%3-point %34.6% · 41.9%Ball care8.8% · 12.7%Free throws0.28 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)70% · 90%
■ Valencia   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Valencia wins
8
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
22/05/26Valencia v Real Madrid90-105
25/04/26Valencia v Real Madrid82-96
12/03/26Real Madrid v Valencia96-79
18/01/26Real Madrid v Valencia94-79
11/11/25Valencia v Real Madrid89-76
28/09/25Real Madrid v Valencia94-98
25/06/25Valencia v Real Madrid70-81
22/06/25Real Madrid v Valencia102-96 OT
20/06/25Real Madrid v Valencia89-75
04/05/25Real Madrid v Valencia96-89
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26ASan Pablo Burgos100-93
05/11/26AOlimpia Milano84-73
01/11/26AMoraBanc Andorra111-79
30/10/26ABarcelona94-98
27/10/26HFenerbahce86-78
25/10/26HBaskonia84-75
23/10/26AParis104-93
18/10/26HMurcia116-93
15/10/26HMaccabi Tel Aviv88-91
13/10/26HOlympiacos97-102 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92
13/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valencia
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW71%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game99.1100.098.5
Allowed / game88.091.085.8
Point differential+11.1+9.0+12.8
Avg total187.1191.0184.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Real Madrid
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games752
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game106.3101.6118.0
Allowed / game85.380.896.5
Point differential+21.0+20.8+21.5
Avg total191.6182.4214.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%80%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %14%0%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid770100%106.385.3+21.0
2 Valencia75271%99.188.0+11.1
3 Baskonia75271%95.084.3+10.7
4 Tenerife75271%86.779.0+7.7
5 Basket Zaragoza75271%92.687.7+4.9
6 Barcelona75271%97.394.4+2.9
7 Breogan74357%102.798.7+4.0
8 Bilbao74357%92.092.6-0.6
9 Basquet Girona74357%90.797.3-6.6
10 Unicaja73443%88.786.1+2.6
11 Murcia73443%90.193.3-3.1
12 Obradoiro CAB73443%90.396.6-6.3
13 Leyma Coruna73443%91.999.9-8.0
14 Joventut Badalona72529%89.389.9-0.6
15 San Pablo Burgos72529%88.789.3-0.6
16 MoraBanc Andorra71614%86.797.4-10.7
17 Forca Lleida71614%92.9105.6-12.7
18 Manresa71614%86.6102.3-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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