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Valencia vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 12 May 2023
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 68-79
15-20 20-19 18-21 15-19
Position#8
Record16-15
FormWLWWL
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game83.6
vs
Position#3
Record25-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.8
Allowed / game78.0
SpainACBRound 32
Domestic2022-23
Meetings · Valencia v Real Madrid
01 Apr 2027
VAL v MAD
upcoming
04 Jan 2027
VAL v MAD
upcoming
22 May 2026
VAL90
MAD105
25 Apr 2026
VAL82
MAD96
11 Nov 2025
VAL89
MAD76
25 Jun 2025
VAL70
MAD81
22 Dec 2024
VAL85
MAD84
10 May 2024
VAL99
MAD93
14 Nov 2023
VAL73
MAD76
12 May 2023
VAL68
MAD79
22 Nov 2022
VAL73
MAD80
10 Oct 2021
VAL79
MAD93
08 Jun 2021
VAL85
MAD67
19 Feb 2021
VAL89
MAD78
01 Nov 2020
VAL78
MAD86
05 Oct 2018
VAL70
MAD88
20 Mar 2018
VAL96
MAD88
15 Oct 2017
VAL82
MAD86
16 Jun 2017
VAL87
MAD76
14 Jun 2017
VAL81
MAD64
06 Oct 2016
VAL75
MAD94
09 Jun 2016
VAL80
MAD82
07 Jun 2016
VAL87
MAD86
28 Feb 2016
VAL94
MAD95
11 Jun 2015
VAL84
MAD90
09 Jun 2015
VAL100
MAD103
15 Feb 2015
VAL87
MAD99
22 Dec 2013
VAL75
MAD82
07 Apr 2013
VAL88
MAD79
11 Mar 2012
VAL83
MAD66
31 Mar 2011
VAL81
MAD72
29 Mar 2011
VAL66
MAD75
19 Feb 2011
VAL59
MAD52
13 Mar 2010
VAL67
MAD78
19 Nov 2008
VAL82
MAD66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
69avg 75
A31/03
Euroleague
Baskonia
#2
L
81-85
81
85
-4
72avg 75
H02/04
ACB
Virtus Bologna
#14
W
79-68
79
68
+11
73avg 75
H06/04
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#6
L
70-85
70
85
-15
57avg 75
A09/04
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
71-85
71
85
-14
no box
A14/04
Euroleague
Real Betis
#17
W
87-81
87
81
+6
68avg 75
H16/04
ACB
Murcia
#9
L
82-90
82
90
-8
71avg 75
A19/04
ACB
Bilbao
#12
W
95-88
95
88
+7
92avg 75
H22/04
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#11
W
87-78
87
78
+9
80avg 75
H29/04
ACB
Manresa
#14
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
A07/05
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-21
24-31
15-25
19-18
18-14
17-23
20-19
26-29
17-19
23-19
18-19
21-11
17-21
15-16
21-19
17-29
21-24
25-27
15-21
10-13
16-21
22-19
32-16
17-25
24-25
22-22
19-20
17-23
25-22
28-25
18-20
24-21
23-24
23-21
20-15
21-18
23-22
13-22
21-23
25-20
165.0Avg total
80.8Scored
84.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)84.083.6167.6+0.452%
Season at home (15)86.581.5168.0+5.173%
Season away (16)81.685.6167.2-4.031%
Last 10 (10)80.884.2165.0-3.440%
Last 5 (5)86.684.8171.4+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)81.490.0171.4-8.618%
vs Similar (14)82.683.9166.5-1.257%
vs Weaker (4)82.078.8160.8+3.275%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Barcelona
#1
L
82-97
82
97
-15
68avg 71
A16/04
ACB
Basquet Girona
#15
W
89-70
89
70
+19
-746avg 71
H19/04
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
86-76
86
76
+10
78avg 71
A23/04
ACB
Partizan
#6
L
87-89
87
89
-2
77avg 71
H25/04
Euroleague
Partizan
#6
L
80-95
80
95
-15
74avg 71
H27/04
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#13
W
93-86
93
86
+7
80avg 71
H30/04
ACB
Partizan
#6
W
82-80
82
80
+2
80avg 71
A02/05
Euroleague
Partizan
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
84avg 71
A04/05
Euroleague
Unicaja
#4
W
102-90
102
90
+12
93avg 71
H07/05
ACB
Partizan
#6
W
98-94
98
94
+4
93avg 71
H10/05
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-17
22-30
17-31
19-19
19-11
25-21
27-19
18-19
30-18
15-20
26-19
15-19
22-22
22-26
20-15
23-26
21-31
16-20
25-24
18-20
18-13
17-27
31-26
27-20
19-32
26-16
21-15
16-17
27-15
18-27
16-13
24-23
24-24
25-22
30-28
23-16
22-23
17-32
30-21
29-18
173.9Avg total
88.4Scored
85.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)88.878.0166.7+10.881%
Season at home (16)92.777.4170.1+15.388%
Season away (15)84.678.6163.2+6.073%
Last 10 (10)88.485.5173.9+2.970%
Last 5 (5)92.085.6177.6+6.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)82.093.0175.0-11.00%
vs Similar (13)88.590.2178.6-1.738%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)89.377.9167.2+11.593%
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: +1.5+1.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: +1.5+1.5
ValenciaReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#9
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A31/03
Euroleague
Baskonia
#2
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H02/04
ACB
Virtus Bologna
#14
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H06/04
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#6
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A09/04
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
46-51
46
51
-5
A14/04
Euroleague
Real Betis
#17
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H16/04
ACB
Murcia
#9
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A19/04
ACB
Bilbao
#12
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H22/04
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#11
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H29/04
ACB
Manresa
#14
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A07/05
ACB
85.0Avg total
41.2Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.342.283.5-0.943%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.739.280.9+2.571%-
Last 30 away (16)40.944.885.7-3.919%-
Last 10 (10)41.243.885.0-2.630%-
Last 5 (5)43.844.688.4-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)42.244.386.5-2.136%-
vs Similar (14)41.642.083.6-0.450%-
vs Weaker (4)39.537.577.0+2.050%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Barcelona
#1
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A16/04
ACB
Basquet Girona
#15
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H19/04
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A23/04
ACB
Partizan
#6
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H25/04
Euroleague
Partizan
#6
L
37-51
37
51
-14
H27/04
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#13
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H30/04
ACB
Partizan
#6
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A02/05
Euroleague
Partizan
#6
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A04/05
Euroleague
Unicaja
#4
W
49-46
49
46
+3
H07/05
ACB
Partizan
#6
L
39-55
39
55
-16
H10/05
Euroleague
87.6Avg total
42.9Scored
44.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.739.683.3+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.940.484.3+3.571%-
Last 30 away (13)43.538.581.9+5.062%-
Last 10 (10)42.944.787.6-1.840%-
Last 5 (5)42.646.288.8-3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.039.078.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (13)43.245.288.4-2.146%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)44.735.179.7+9.687%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 80.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.819.9
54.1%
52.1%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.2
32.5%
34.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws16.112.8
79.5%
73.9%12.8
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 87.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.021.0
56.8%
52.1%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.29.4
37.3%
34.5%28.2
🏀 Free throws21.917.6
80.4%
73.9%17.6
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 May 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valencia
LWWLWLLWLL
Real Madrid
WWWWWLLWWL
#8
League position
#3
-4.6
Net rating
+4.7
108.8
Offensive rating
118.9
113.4
Defensive rating
114.2
51.8%
Effective FG%
56.4%
57.8%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
16.6%
Turnover %
14.5%
29.6%
Off. rebound %
26.3%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.35
32.5%
3-point %
37.3%
56.4%
Assist %
52.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence108.8 · 118.9Defence113.4 · 114.2Shooting51.8% · 56.4%3-point %32.5% · 37.3%Ball care16.6% · 14.5%Off. rebounds29.6% · 26.3%Free throws0.25 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Valencia   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Valencia wins
7
Real Madrid wins
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/05/23AManresa82-87
29/04/23HObradoiro CAB87-78
22/04/23HBilbao95-88
19/04/23AMurcia82-90
16/04/23HReal Betis87-81
14/04/23ABarcelona71-85
09/04/23AJoventut Badalona70-85
06/04/23HVirtus Bologna79-68
02/04/23HBaskonia81-85
31/03/23AZalgiris Kaunas74-95
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/23HPartizan98-94
07/05/23HUnicaja102-90
04/05/23APartizan85-78
02/05/23APartizan82-80
30/04/23HBasket Zaragoza93-86
27/04/23HPartizan80-95
25/04/23HPartizan87-89
23/04/23AJoventut Badalona86-76
19/04/23HBasquet Girona89-70
16/04/23ABarcelona82-97

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valencia
ACB 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL52%
HomeWLWWW73%
AwayWLLLL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %52%73%31%
Points / game84.086.581.6
Allowed / game83.681.585.6
Point differential+0.4+5.1-4.0
Avg total167.6168.0167.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%20%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)50% (4)80% (5)
Overtime %6%7%6%
Real Madrid
ACB 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW81%
HomeLWWWW88%
AwayWWLLW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %81%88%73%
Points / game88.892.784.6
Allowed / game78.077.478.6
Point differential+10.8+15.3+6.0
Avg total166.7170.1163.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+61%81%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)-67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Barcelona3227584%84.973.4+11.6
2 Baskonia3227584%92.883.0+9.8
3 Real Madrid3125681%88.878.0+10.8
4 Tenerife3223972%83.574.2+9.3
5 Unicaja32221069%87.278.0+9.2
6 Gran Canaria32191359%84.279.2+5.0
7 Joventut Badalona32181456%81.578.2+3.2
8 Valencia31161552%84.083.6+0.4
9 Murcia32151747%80.983.7-2.8
10 Bilbao32141844%76.980.2-3.2
11 Breogan32131941%76.879.9-3.1
12 Obradoiro CAB32131941%78.383.2-4.9
13 Basket Zaragoza32122038%78.780.2-1.6
14 Basquet Girona32102231%76.281.6-5.3
15 Real Betis32102231%78.084.0-5.9
16 Manresa32102231%83.389.7-6.3
17 Granada3292328%76.286.4-10.2
18 Fuenlabrada3242812%76.391.9-15.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Valencia1520181568
Real Madrid2019211979
← all games of the day
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