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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 01 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 01:30
Scheduled
Position#14
Record7-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game113.5
Allowed / game113.3
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.1/10
Below normal
4.6/10
Around normal
Position#10
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game114.6
Allowed / game112.8
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets
31 Mar 2027
DAL v DEN
upcoming
14 Jan 2026
DAL109
DEN118
23 Dec 2025
DAL131
DEN130
14 Jan 2025
DAL99
DEN118
12 Jan 2025
DAL101
DEN112
17 Mar 2024
DAL107
DEN105
20 Nov 2022
DAL97
DEN98
18 Nov 2022
DAL127
DEN99
03 Jan 2022
DAL103
DEN89
15 Nov 2021
DAL111
DEN101
25 Jan 2021
DAL113
DEN117
11 Mar 2020
DAL113
DEN97
08 Jan 2020
DAL106
DEN107
22 Feb 2019
DAL104
DEN114
06 Mar 2018
DAL118
DEN107
04 Dec 2017
DAL122
DEN105
11 Apr 2017
DAL91
DEN109
12 Dec 2016
DAL112
DEN92
26 Feb 2016
DAL122
DEN116
28 Nov 2015
DAL92
DEN81
16 Jan 2015
DAL97
DEN89
21 Mar 2014
DAL122
DEN106
25 Nov 2013
DAL96
DEN110
12 Apr 2013
DAL108
DEN105
28 Dec 2012
DAL85
DEN106
15 Feb 2012
DAL102
DEN84
26 Dec 2011
DAL93
DEN115
06 Apr 2011
DAL96
DEN104
06 Nov 2010
DAL92
DEN103
29 Mar 2010
DAL109
DEN93
11 May 2009
DAL119
DEN117
09 May 2009
DAL105
DEN106
27 Mar 2009
DAL101
DEN103
15 Dec 2008
DAL88
DEN98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#15
W
113-109
113
109
+4
111avg 100
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
120-96
120
96
+24
114avg 100
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 100
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 100
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
111-112
111
112
-1
98avg 100
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
112-100
112
100
+12
104avg 100
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
130-93
130
93
+37
134avg 100
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
125-122
125
122
+3
120avg 100
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
94-133
94
133
-39
78avg 100
A13/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
117-127
117
127
-10
100avg 100
A15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
18-19
35-35
21-27
26-34
26-32
25-36
29-22
31-22
26-28
31-29
32-19
23-24
33-26
33-20
34-25
30-22
26-31
30-35
34-27
35-29
26-34
26-33
17-36
25-30
33-33
20-38
38-34
26-22
225.6Avg total
113.8Scored
111.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)113.5113.3226.8+0.254%
Season at home (7)115.6108.4224.0+7.171%
Season away (6)111.0119.0230.0-8.033%
Last 10 (10)113.8111.8225.6+2.060%
Last 5 (5)115.6115.0230.6+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)115.2125.9241.1-10.722%
vs Similar ◀ (9)119.4116.8236.2+2.767%
vs Weaker (3)114.0102.7216.7+11.367%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 106
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 106
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 106
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 106
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 106
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 106
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 106
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 106
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 106
A12/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
116-108
116
108
+8
117avg 106
A15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
29-23
27-28
30-31
30-26
232.2Avg total
117.7Scored
114.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)114.6112.8227.5+1.864%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (7)109.7106.4216.1+3.371%
Last 10 (10)117.7114.5232.2+3.270%
Last 5 (5)116.2109.4225.6+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)115.0113.2228.2+1.850%
vs Similar ◀ (13)113.9115.5229.4-1.554%
vs Weaker (13)126.5116.8243.2+9.792%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +1.1+1.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +1.1+1.1
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#15
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
66-46
66
46
+20
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
56-66
56
66
-10
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A13/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
53-71
53
71
-18
A15/11
NBA
114.1Avg total
55.0Scored
59.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.261.1119.3-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.260.3120.5-0.140%-
Last 30 away (15)56.161.9118.1-5.833%-
Last 10 (10)55.059.1114.1-4.130%-
Last 5 (5)56.861.4118.2-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)56.463.6119.9-7.228%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)61.659.2120.8+2.356%-
vs Weaker (3)58.752.3111.0+6.333%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A15/11
NBA
116.4Avg total
59.6Scored
56.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.958.2118.1+1.653%-
Last 30 at home (16)61.762.4124.1-0.738%-
Last 30 away (14)57.853.5111.3+4.371%-
Last 10 (10)59.656.8116.4+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)57.853.0110.8+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)57.553.8111.2+3.875%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)58.258.0116.2+0.246%-
vs Weaker (13)62.359.8122.2+2.554%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 119.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.530.1
57.3%
54.0%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.413.5
37.1%
35.1%40.5
🏀 Free throws23.818.6
78.2%
77.3%18.6
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.1%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
77.3%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
LLWWWLLWWW
Denver Nuggets
WWLWWLWWLW
#14
League position
#10
+6.0
Net rating
-1.6
112.7
Offensive rating
110.1
106.8
Defensive rating
111.6
56.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
15.4%
Turnover %
11.1%
31.0%
Off. rebound %
16.8%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.29
37.1%
3-point %
32.2%
63.1%
Assist %
65.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence112.7 · 110.1Defence106.8 · 111.6Shooting56.6% · 53.6%3-point %37.1% · 32.2%Ball care15.4% · 11.1%Off. rebounds31.0% · 16.8%Free throws0.27 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Dallas Mavericks wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-127
13/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-133
10/11/26HIndiana Pacers125-122
09/11/26HBrooklyn Nets130-93
07/11/26HUtah Jazz112-100
05/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs111-112
03/11/26HSacramento Kings100-115
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ANew Orleans Pelicans116-108
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL54%
HomeWLWWW71%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %54%71%33%
Points / game113.5115.6111.0
Allowed / game113.3108.4119.0
Point differential+0.2+7.1-8.0
Avg total226.8224.0230.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%43%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW64%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWLWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %64%50%71%
Points / game114.6123.2109.7
Allowed / game112.8124.0106.4
Point differential+1.8-0.8+3.3
Avg total227.5247.2216.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%25%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %9%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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