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Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 17 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 107-105
30-34 28-27 26-18 23-26
Position#6
Record38-29
FormWWWWL
Points / game119.0
Allowed / game117.7
Dallas Mavericks 🏆
USA
vs
Denver Nuggets
USA
Position#3
Record47-20
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.8
Allowed / game110.3
USANBA· American Airlines Center (Dallas)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets
31 Mar 2027
DAL v DEN
upcoming
14 Jan 2026
DAL109
DEN118
23 Dec 2025
DAL131
DEN130
14 Jan 2025
DAL99
DEN118
12 Jan 2025
DAL101
DEN112
17 Mar 2024
DAL107
DEN105
20 Nov 2022
DAL97
DEN98
18 Nov 2022
DAL127
DEN99
03 Jan 2022
DAL103
DEN89
15 Nov 2021
DAL111
DEN101
25 Jan 2021
DAL113
DEN117
11 Mar 2020
DAL113
DEN97
08 Jan 2020
DAL106
DEN107
22 Feb 2019
DAL104
DEN114
06 Mar 2018
DAL118
DEN107
04 Dec 2017
DAL122
DEN105
11 Apr 2017
DAL91
DEN109
12 Dec 2016
DAL112
DEN92
26 Feb 2016
DAL122
DEN116
28 Nov 2015
DAL92
DEN81
16 Jan 2015
DAL97
DEN89
21 Mar 2014
DAL122
DEN106
25 Nov 2013
DAL96
DEN110
12 Apr 2013
DAL108
DEN105
28 Dec 2012
DAL85
DEN106
15 Feb 2012
DAL102
DEN84
26 Dec 2011
DAL93
DEN115
06 Apr 2011
DAL96
DEN104
06 Nov 2010
DAL92
DEN103
29 Mar 2010
DAL109
DEN93
11 May 2009
DAL119
DEN117
09 May 2009
DAL105
DEN106
27 Mar 2009
DAL101
DEN103
15 Dec 2008
DAL88
DEN98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
119-121
119
121
-2
106avg 110
A28/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
136-125
136
125
+11
135avg 110
A29/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
110-138
110
138
-28
95avg 110
A02/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
116-120
116
120
-4
107avg 110
H03/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
120-137
120
137
-17
108avg 110
H06/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
114-108
114
108
+6
108avg 110
H08/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
142-124
142
124
+18
134avg 110
A10/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
127-92
127
92
+35
129avg 110
A12/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
109-99
109
99
+10
110avg 110
H14/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
119-126
119
126
-7
113avg 110
A15/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-23
32-37
26-23
37-38
36-34
30-33
40-25
30-33
32-38
27-28
31-36
20-36
22-32
29-24
25-34
40-30
32-35
38-39
18-32
32-31
28-36
26-22
37-25
23-25
35-33
34-32
35-23
38-36
44-16
18-26
36-22
29-28
27-27
21-15
28-28
33-29
27-33
36-32
24-30
32-31
240.2Avg total
121.2Scored
119.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (67)119.0117.7236.7+1.357%
Season at home (35)119.8116.3236.1+3.557%
Season away (32)118.1119.2237.2-1.156%
Last 10 (10)121.2119.0240.2+2.250%
Last 5 (5)122.2109.8232.0+12.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)121.2123.5244.8-2.225%
vs Similar ◀ (19)116.3118.6234.8-2.347%
vs Weaker (7)125.1116.6241.7+8.686%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
119-103
119
103
+16
116avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
117-96
117
96
+21
121avg 109
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
103-97
103
97
+6
94avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
124-114
124
114
+10
128avg 109
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
107-117 OT
107
117
-10
98avg 109
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
115-109
115
109
+6
111avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
142-121
142
121
+21
149avg 109
H10/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
125-119
125
119
+6
123avg 109
H12/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
100-88
100
88
+12
94avg 109
A13/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
117-106
117
106
+11
119avg 109
A16/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-36
31-25
30-26
28-16
28-35
37-20
35-17
17-24
36-20
20-31
27-19
20-27
27-33
31-33
31-23
35-25
32-28
18-37
31-25
21-12
30-28
32-26
28-26
25-29
38-22
40-22
24-44
40-33
32-34
19-34
42-30
32-21
26-19
24-25
22-27
28-17
37-18
21-31
28-30
31-27
223.9Avg total
116.9Scored
107.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (67)114.8110.3225.1+4.670%
Season at home (33)118.9109.6228.5+9.382%
Season away (34)110.8110.9221.7-0.159%
Last 10 (10)116.9107.0223.9+9.990%
Last 5 (5)119.8108.6228.4+11.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)108.5104.5213.0+4.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (16)108.1109.1217.2-1.056%
vs Weaker (12)122.2111.8233.9+10.492%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +4.3+4.3Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +4.6+4.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +4.3+4.3Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +4.6+4.6
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
56-60
56
60
-4
A28/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A29/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
59-66
59
66
-7
A02/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
51-56
51
56
-5
H03/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H06/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
L
54-58
54
58
-4
H08/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
69-65
69
65
+4
A10/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
62-42
62
42
+20
A12/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
48-42
48
42
+6
H14/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
63-65
63
65
-2
A15/03
NBA
119.3Avg total
59.8Scored
59.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.159.1118.2-0.137%-
Last 30 at home (17)58.459.8118.2-1.441%-
Last 30 away (13)59.958.2118.2+1.731%-
Last 10 (10)59.859.5119.3+0.330%-
Last 5 (5)59.254.4113.6+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)63.064.5127.5-1.525%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)57.657.6115.2+0.037%-
vs Weaker (7)60.960.3121.1+0.643%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#15
D
61-61
61
61
+0
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
78-44
78
44
+34
H10/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
51-68
51
68
-17
H12/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A13/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A16/03
NBA
114.6Avg total
58.9Scored
55.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.756.8115.5+1.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)61.155.2116.3+5.973%-
Last 30 away (15)56.358.5114.7-2.240%-
Last 10 (10)58.955.7114.6+3.260%-
Last 5 (5)59.851.8111.6+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.557.5116.0+1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)56.657.4114.1-0.850%-
vs Weaker (12)61.555.9117.4+5.667%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 121.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.233.0
62.0%
54.4%66.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.612.8
35.0%
36.3%38.4
🏀 Free throws21.316.8
78.9%
78.2%16.8
They take 89.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 116.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers68.6 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.834.3
59.3%
54.4%68.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.711.8
38.4%
36.3%35.4
🏀 Free throws16.012.9
80.6%
78.2%12.9
They take 88.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
LWWWWLLLWL
Denver Nuggets
WWWWWLWWWW
#6
League position
#3
+2.2
Net rating
+10.0
119.4
Offensive rating
118.5
117.2
Defensive rating
108.5
58.1%
Effective FG%
58.8%
56.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
11.4%
Turnover %
11.6%
21.7%
Off. rebound %
21.3%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.18
35.0%
3-point %
38.4%
57.2%
Assist %
67.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence119.4 · 118.5Defence117.2 · 108.5Shooting58.1% · 58.8%3-point %35.0% · 38.4%Ball care11.4% · 11.6%Off. rebounds21.7% · 21.3%Free throws0.24 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Dallas Mavericks wins
5
Denver Nuggets wins
DateGameScore
19/12/23Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks130-104
04/11/23Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks125-114
16/02/23Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks118-109
07/12/22Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks115-116
21/11/22Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets97-98
19/11/22Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets127-99
04/01/22Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets103-89
16/11/21Dallas Mavericks v Denver Nuggets111-101
30/10/21Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks106-75
14/03/21Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks103-116
Dallas Maverickslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/24AOklahoma City Thunder119-126
14/03/24HGolden State Warriors109-99
12/03/24AChicago Bulls127-92
10/03/24ADetroit Pistons142-124
08/03/24HMiami Heat114-108
06/03/24HIndiana Pacers120-137
03/03/24HPhiladelphia 76ers116-120
02/03/24ABoston Celtics110-138
29/02/24AToronto Raptors136-125
28/02/24ACleveland Cavaliers119-121
Denver Nuggetslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/03/24ASan Antonio Spurs117-106
13/03/24AMiami Heat100-88
12/03/24HToronto Raptors125-119
10/03/24HUtah Jazz142-121
08/03/24HBoston Celtics115-109
06/03/24HPhoenix Suns107-117 OT
03/03/24ALos Angeles Lakers124-114
01/03/24HMiami Heat103-97
29/02/24HSacramento Kings117-96
26/02/24AGolden State Warriors119-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL57%
HomeWLLWW57%
AwayWLWWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games673532
Win %57%57%56%
Points / game119.0119.8118.1
Allowed / game117.7116.3119.2
Point differential+1.3+3.5-1.1
Avg total236.7236.1237.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%26%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (11)62% (8)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW70%
HomeWLWWW82%
AwayWWWWW59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games673334
Win %70%82%59%
Points / game114.8118.9110.8
Allowed / game110.3109.6110.9
Point differential+4.6+9.3-0.1
Avg total225.1228.5221.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%48%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)40% (5)55% (11)
Overtime %1%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics65521380%121.0109.5+11.6
2 Oklahoma City Thunder67472070%120.7113.1+7.6
3 Denver Nuggets67472070%114.8110.3+4.6
4 Minnesota Timberwolves67462169%113.3106.6+6.7
5 Milwaukee Bucks66432365%120.3117.0+3.3
6 Los Angeles Clippers66422464%116.8112.7+4.2
7 Cleveland Cavaliers67422563%113.6109.6+4.0
8 New Orleans Pelicans65402562%116.4110.6+5.8
9 New York Knicks66402661%111.8107.3+4.5
10 Sacramento Kings65382758%118.0116.9+1.1
11 Phoenix Suns67392858%117.1114.7+2.4
12 Orlando Magic67392858%110.7109.2+1.5
13 Dallas Mavericks67382957%119.0117.7+1.3
14 Philadelphia 76ers67373055%115.1112.6+2.4
15 Miami Heat67373055%110.0109.4+0.6
16 Indiana Pacers66363055%123.1121.3+1.8
17 Golden State Warriors66353153%118.4116.8+1.6
18 Los Angeles Lakers66343252%117.1118.4-1.3
19 Chicago Bulls68333549%112.1113.6-1.6
20 Houston Rockets67323548%113.2112.5+0.8
21 Atlanta Hawks66293744%119.4121.3-1.9
22 Utah Jazz67293843%117.4120.7-3.3
23 Brooklyn Nets67264139%111.7114.0-2.3
24 Toronto Raptors67234434%113.9118.1-4.2
25 Memphis Grizzlies68234534%105.8112.3-6.5
26 Portland Trail Blazers67194828%107.7115.9-8.1
27 Charlotte Hornets68175125%106.8116.7-9.9
28 San Antonio Spurs67145321%112.2119.8-7.6
29 Detroit Pistons67125518%112.0120.1-8.1
30 Washington Wizards67115616%114.0123.9-9.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Dallas Mavericks30282623107
Denver Nuggets34271826105
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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