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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 19 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 130-104
28-20 40-39 30-21 32-24
Position#3
Record17-10
FormLWWWL
Points / game114.7
Allowed / game110.8
vs
Position#6
Record16-9
FormWWWLW
Points / game119.9
Allowed / game117.1
USANBA· Ball Arena (Denver)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks
04 Feb 2027
DEN v DAL
upcoming
24 Nov 2026
DEN v DAL
upcoming
25 Mar 2026
DEN142
DAL135
01 Dec 2025
DEN121
DAL131
22 Nov 2024
DEN120
DAL123
10 Nov 2024
DEN122
DAL120
18 Dec 2023
DEN130
DAL104
03 Nov 2023
DEN125
DAL114
15 Feb 2023
DEN118
DAL109
06 Dec 2022
DEN115
DAL116
29 Oct 2021
DEN106
DAL75
13 Mar 2021
DEN103
DAL116
07 Jan 2021
DEN117
DAL124
13 Apr 2020
DEN v DAL
upcoming
29 Oct 2019
DEN106
DAL109
14 Mar 2019
DEN100
DAL99
18 Dec 2018
DEN126
DAL118
27 Jan 2018
DEN91
DAL89
16 Jan 2018
DEN105
DAL102
06 Feb 2017
DEN110
DAL87
19 Dec 2016
DEN117
DAL107
28 Mar 2016
DEN88
DAL97
06 Mar 2016
DEN116
DAL114
10 Apr 2015
DEN143
DAL144
14 Jan 2015
DEN114
DAL107
05 Mar 2014
DEN115
DAL110
23 Nov 2013
DEN102
DAL100
04 Apr 2013
DEN95
DAL94
19 Mar 2012
DEN95
DAL112
08 Feb 2012
DEN95
DAL105
10 Feb 2011
DEN121
DAL120
03 Nov 2010
DEN101
DAL102
09 Feb 2010
DEN127
DAL91
27 Dec 2009
DEN96
DAL104
13 May 2009
DEN124
DAL110
05 May 2009
DEN117
DAL105
03 May 2009
DEN109
DAL95
13 Jan 2009
DEN99
DAL97
07 Nov 2008
DEN108
DAL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
113-104
113
104
+9
107avg 111
A28/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
134-124
134
124
+10
130avg 111
H30/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
119-111
119
111
+8
118avg 111
A02/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
117-123
117
123
-6
112avg 111
A03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
102-111
102
111
-9
93avg 111
A07/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
106-114
106
114
-8
94avg 111
H09/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
129-122
129
122
+7
129avg 111
A12/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
114-106
114
106
+8
110avg 111
A13/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
124-101
124
101
+23
118avg 111
H15/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
117-118
117
118
-1
111avg 111
H17/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-28
33-28
19-32
36-16
41-26
35-33
32-38
26-27
41-30
29-33
24-28
25-20
30-25
20-39
28-24
39-35
36-21
21-40
25-18
20-32
22-27
26-25
26-40
32-22
28-36
37-26
38-24
26-36
32-25
25-25
35-30
22-26
29-22
23-17
38-28
34-34
31-27
25-27
31-31
30-33
230.9Avg total
117.5Scored
113.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)114.7110.8225.5+3.963%
Season at home (12)120.2110.8231.1+9.483%
Season away (15)110.3110.7221.0-0.547%
Last 10 (10)117.5113.4230.9+4.160%
Last 5 (5)118.0112.2230.2+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (18)112.8112.5225.3+0.344%
vs Weaker (12)114.8103.7218.4+11.1100%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
88-107
88
107
-19
67avg 108
A26/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
121-115
121
115
+6
110avg 108
H29/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
94-108
94
108
-14
80avg 108
H02/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
120-126
120
126
-6
112avg 108
H03/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
147-97
147
97
+50
146avg 108
H07/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
125-112
125
112
+13
118avg 108
A09/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
120-113
120
113
+7
117avg 108
A12/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
127-125
127
125
+2
119avg 108
H13/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
101-119
101
119
-18
89avg 108
H15/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
131-120
131
120
+11
124avg 108
A17/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-29
27-27
17-23
26-28
29-22
25-28
30-38
37-27
20-28
24-31
28-20
22-29
27-33
29-39
28-35
36-19
40-29
34-22
35-23
38-23
37-22
34-38
26-30
28-22
29-24
38-27
29-28
24-34
34-26
37-35
22-34
34-30
30-26
30-33
22-28
19-32
36-39
38-24
36-36
21-21
231.6Avg total
117.4Scored
114.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)119.9117.1237.0+2.864%
Season at home (12)120.5117.9238.4+2.658%
Season away (13)119.3116.4235.7+2.969%
Last 10 (10)117.4114.2231.6+3.260%
Last 5 (5)120.8117.8238.6+3.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)120.0126.0246.0-6.00%
vs Similar ◀ (17)117.7119.8237.5-2.147%
vs Weaker (12)123.3116.6239.9+6.875%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +2.0+2.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: +2.0+2.0
Denver NuggetsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
58-56
58
56
+2
A28/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
76-59
76
59
+17
H30/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
70-63
70
63
+7
A02/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
50-64
50
64
-14
A03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
57-61
57
61
-4
A07/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
48-52
48
52
-4
H09/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A12/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A13/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H15/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H17/12
NBA
114.9Avg total
58.9Scored
56.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.455.6113.1+1.867%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.653.2111.8+5.469%-
Last 30 away (17)56.557.5114.0-0.965%-
Last 10 (10)58.956.0114.9+2.970%-
Last 5 (5)55.651.4107.0+4.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (18)57.658.1115.6-0.556%-
vs Weaker (12)57.252.0109.2+5.283%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
45-56
45
56
-11
A26/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H29/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
44-59
44
59
-15
H02/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
56-72
56
72
-16
H03/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
74-51
74
51
+23
H07/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A09/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
67-51
67
51
+16
A12/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
71-61
71
61
+10
H13/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
W
60-59
60
59
+1
H15/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
74-63
74
63
+11
A17/12
NBA
119.8Avg total
61.6Scored
58.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.360.8122.1+0.543%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.160.1120.2-0.140%-
Last 30 away (15)62.561.5124.0+1.147%-
Last 10 (10)61.658.2119.8+3.470%-
Last 5 (5)68.658.8127.4+9.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)56.072.0128.0-16.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)60.460.8121.2-0.441%-
vs Weaker (12)63.059.8122.8+3.250%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 117.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.832.6
52.8%
54.4%65.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.811.9
38.6%
36.3%35.7
🏀 Free throws22.816.6
72.8%
78.2%16.6
They take 92.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 117.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.327.9
56.6%
54.4%55.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.314.7
35.6%
36.3%44.1
🏀 Free throws21.917.5
79.9%
78.2%17.5
They take 90.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWWWLLLWWW
Dallas Mavericks
WLWWWWLLWL
#3
League position
#6
+4.1
Net rating
+3.1
118.3
Offensive rating
115.1
114.1
Defensive rating
111.9
54.5%
Effective FG%
55.1%
52.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
9.7%
Turnover %
11.6%
28.1%
Off. rebound %
24.0%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.24
38.6%
3-point %
35.6%
69.0%
Assist %
61.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence118.3 · 115.1Defence114.1 · 111.9Shooting54.5% · 55.1%3-point %38.6% · 35.6%Ball care9.7% · 11.6%Off. rebounds28.1% · 24.0%Free throws0.25 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23HOklahoma City Thunder117-118
15/12/23HBrooklyn Nets124-101
13/12/23AChicago Bulls114-106
12/12/23AAtlanta Hawks129-122
09/12/23HHouston Rockets106-114
07/12/23ALos Angeles Clippers102-111
03/12/23ASacramento Kings117-123
02/12/23APhoenix Suns119-111
30/11/23HHouston Rockets134-124
28/11/23ALos Angeles Clippers113-104
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23APortland Trail Blazers131-120
15/12/23HMinnesota Timberwolves101-119
13/12/23HLos Angeles Lakers127-125
12/12/23AMemphis Grizzlies120-113
09/12/23APortland Trail Blazers125-112
07/12/23HUtah Jazz147-97
03/12/23HOklahoma City Thunder120-126
02/12/23HMemphis Grizzlies94-108
29/11/23HHouston Rockets121-115
26/11/23ALos Angeles Clippers88-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL63%
HomeWWLWL83%
AwayWLLWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271215
Win %63%83%47%
Points / game114.7120.2110.3
Allowed / game110.8110.8110.7
Point differential+3.9+9.4-0.5
Avg total225.5231.1221.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%58%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)67% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeLLWWL58%
AwayWLWWW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %64%58%69%
Points / game119.9120.5119.3
Allowed / game117.1117.9116.4
Point differential+2.8+2.6+2.9
Avg total237.0238.4235.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%17%46%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics2420483%117.9108.0+9.9
2 Minnesota Timberwolves2520580%113.5105.9+7.6
3 Milwaukee Bucks2418675%123.7118.8+5.0
4 Philadelphia 76ers2618869%122.2110.9+11.3
5 Oklahoma City Thunder2517868%120.2113.0+7.2
6 Sacramento Kings2315865%117.1116.1+1.0
7 Orlando Magic2516964%113.2109.9+3.4
8 Dallas Mavericks2516964%119.9117.1+2.8
9 Denver Nuggets27171063%114.7110.8+3.9
10 Los Angeles Clippers26161062%117.0110.7+6.3
11 New Orleans Pelicans25151060%116.6112.9+3.7
12 New York Knicks24141058%114.2110.4+3.8
13 Phoenix Suns25141156%115.8114.3+1.4
14 Miami Heat27151256%112.8112.0+0.8
15 Cleveland Cavaliers27151256%112.0111.9+0.1
16 Houston Rockets24131154%110.7107.3+3.4
17 Los Angeles Lakers24131154%113.5114.9-1.4
18 Brooklyn Nets25131252%116.4114.7+1.7
19 Indiana Pacers23111248%127.6128.0-0.5
20 Golden State Warriors26121446%115.9115.7+0.2
21 Atlanta Hawks26111542%122.7122.7+0.0
22 Toronto Raptors26111542%112.5114.2-1.7
23 Chicago Bulls28111739%109.9113.3-3.4
24 Utah Jazz2691735%111.7120.0-8.3
25 Charlotte Hornets2571828%111.0120.7-9.8
26 Memphis Grizzlies2561924%105.6112.4-6.8
27 Portland Trail Blazers2561924%107.6114.6-6.9
28 Washington Wizards2542116%116.4126.2-9.8
29 San Antonio Spurs2542116%110.6122.2-11.6
30 Detroit Pistons272257%108.9120.8-11.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets28403032130
Dallas Mavericks20392124104
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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